The liberal Republic

[President Johnson]

April 19, 1980: Governor Robert F. Kennedy endorses Brown ahead of New York primary



Days ahead of New York's critical presidential primary, Jerry Brown wins another big endorsement in his bid for the Democratic nomination. New York Governor and former Vice President Robert Kennedy officially announced his support for Brown. "Jerry Brown has demonstrated that he can lead a major state in the union with efficiency and passion. He's guided by the philosophy that we leave a better America behind than he inherited", the governor said. "Therefore, I will cast my vote for Governor Brown". The endorsement comes at a moment Brown is in a bitter contest with Texas senator Lloyd Bentsen after Reubin Askew withdrew.

Kennedy has remained a big name in Democratic politics after his narrow loss to Nelson Rockefeller in 1972. Despite calls to run again in 1976 and 1980, Kennedy declined and instead focused on his homestate by choice, New York. He represented the state in the senate between 1965 and 1969 before serving as Lyndon Johnson's vice president during the latters final term in office. Kennedy was elected governor in 1974 and reelected in 1978. As governor, Kennedy has implemented a number of progressive reforms and - ironically - continued several policies of Nelson Rockefeller. However, he became a target for Republicans after softening the Rockefeller drug laws in his first term. Kennedy said he'll soon decide whether to seek a third term in 1982. So far, US Senator and former lt. governor Mario Cuomo has indicated interest in the position should Kennedy leave office after his second term.


April 22, 1980

BREAKING: Brown easily wins New York primary! Bentsen to continue bid




New York Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 60.9%
Lloyd Bentsen: 37.9%

As soon as polls closed, Jerry Brown was declared the winner of New York's Democratic primary, having secured just over 60% of the vote. Brown carried all NYC boroughs but Staten Island by wide margin, especially the Bronx with 88% support. Brown also narrowly carried Upstate by running up margins around Albany and Erie County. In his victory speech, the California governor claimed to have the "big momentum on his side" and thanked supporters for their efforts.

Meanwhile, Bentsen left the state earlier in the afternoon and cited his senate duties. Back in Washington, Bentsen congratulated his rival but emphasized that "the fight isn't over at all". "I'll continue my bid because in the end it comes down who can beat Reagan. I can", the senator told reporters. Nevertheless, Brown has pulled ahead in delegate count at this point and can expect to net several more delegates from California alone.




Jerry Brown: ~28% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~25% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~ 5% of delegates
John Glenn: ~1% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~1% of delegates


All images Wikimedia Commons (PD)

[President Johnson]

April 29, 1980

DECISION 1980: Brown wins more delegates, Bentsen remains competitive

Connecticut
✓ Jerry Brown: 59.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 40.0%

Delaware
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 55.5%
Jerry Brown: 42.9%

Maryland
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 57.7%
Jerry Brown: 41.6%

Pennsylvania
✓ Jerry Brown: 52.8%
Lloyd Bentsen: 47.0%

Rhode Island
✓ Jerry Brown: 64.8%
Lloyd Bentsen: 32.7%


The tone between Brown and Bentsen gets harsher

The Democratic primaries for president remain to be competitive between Governor Jerry Brown of California and Texas senator Lloyd Bentsen. The 42 year old two-term governor of the largest state has accomplished a stunning political uprise in just a few short years. With just one rival remaining for the nomination as president, Brown has done what few expected even after his upset win in the 1974 gubernatorial race. During his White House bid, Brown has constantly stressed the need for a fresh, new face and proposed various reforms similar to his record in California. Meanwhile, Bentsen again repeatedly warned Democratic voters that Brown is too young for the job and lacks foreign policy experience. He also cast doubt whether he could beat presumptive Republican nominee Ronald Reagan, his predesscor in Sacramento. "Look, I know you of y'all find Brown an exicting guy", Bentsen said hours after polls in the April 29 primaries closed, "but our party needs a standard bearer who can beat Mr. Reagan and the Republicans. And who has the knowledge to govern." Brown immediately rebutted the attacks: "Senator Bentsen wants to talk about experience? Wow! What jurisdiction or organization has he run other than a senate office? I've been governing a state. The largest in the nation. You really want to talk about experience? I'm happy to do that! But you have rejected a debate, senator!", Brown told an excited crowd in Philiadelphia.




Jerry Brown: ~34% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~29% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~ 4% of delegates
John Glenn: ~1% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~1% of delegates


April 30, 1980: New Gallup polls

President Ford job approval
Approve: 56% ▲
Disapprove: 39% ▼


Presidential election

Jerry Brown (D): 44%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 48%

Lloyd Bentsen (D): 46%
Ronald Reagan (R): 47%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

List of Presidents:
36. Lyndon B. Johnson (Until January 20, 1973)
37. Nelson Rockefeller (January 20, 1973-May 17, 1979)
38. Gerald Ford (May 17, 1979-Present)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Brown is definitely the heavy favorite to be the nominee

[President Johnson]

May 6, 1980

DECISION 1980: Bentsen takes Indiana, stalling Brown momentum



Indiana Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 62.3%
Jerry Brown: 36.0%



Jerry Brown: ~34% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~30% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~ 4% of delegates
John Glenn: ~1% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~1% of delegates


A huge sign of relief for the Bentsen campaign: The Texas senator scored an easy win in the Indiana Democratic primary, cutting into the California governor's increasing delegate lead. Bentsen's victory came a five day intense bus tour through the state in the final days before ballots were cast and just after winning an endorsement from Senator Birch Bayh, a big name in local politics. On his campaign stumps, Bentsen riled up supporters and warned a Brown nomination would hand the presidency to Reagan, who ironically was campaigning in Indianapolis just the day before primary day. As he already secured his party's nomination, he focused on the Democrats and said Brown would be ill prepared to lead the United States in a time of increasing tension with the USSR. Brown for his part has already turned attention on West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon.


May 13, 1980

DECISION 1980: Bentsen further cuts into Brown lead by taking West Virginia and Kentucky



Kentucky
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 63.5%
Jerry Brown: 35.1%

West Virginia
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 67.9%
Jerry Brown: 26.3%
Robert Byrd (write in): 6.1%

Another success for Lloyd Bentsen: He easily won primaries in Appalachian states Kentucky and West Virginia. Although Jerry Brown campaigned in both states, he was always considered an underdog here as Bentsen, a southerner, was seen a better cultural fit for Democratic voters. Speaking to supporters and volunteers in Lexington, Bentsen stressed again how the results demonstrated his electablity. "Y'all think Governor Brown is gonna win here in November? I don't!", he told the crowd, who responded with "We don't! We don't!" chores.

A spokesman for the Brown campaign dismissed Bentsen's remarks, saying Brown would work hard to earn hearts and minds all across the nation. "Senator Bentsen repeadetly stresses electablity, and he's still down in delegates. His campaign doesn't offer much beyond that", the governor himself told a reporter back in Sacramento for some state-releated business and ahead of the Oregon primary.


May 20, 1980

DECISION 1980: Brown secures Oregon



Oregon Democratic Primary
✓ Jerry Brown: 61.0%
Lloyd Bentsen: 35.6%



Jerry Brown: ~36% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~32% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~ 3% of delegates
John Glenn: ~1% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~1% of delegates


Hardly a surprise, Jerry Brown won Oregon's Democratic presidential primary. Voters of his neighboring state chose him by a 25 point margin over Lloyd Bentsen, the last remaining rival for the nomination. At a rally in Eugene, Oregon, Brown told supporters and the press that "we're now so close to the nomination, it's going to be damn hard to take it from us". His remarks are a reference to the upcoming California primary, which he is expected to win by a large margin. A Gallup survey found 64% support for Brown among Democratic voters and just 23% support for Bentsen.


May 22, 1980: Scranton-Reagan fundraiser raises questions about ticket prospects




Houston, Texas was suddenly in political news: Vice President William Scranton paid a routine visit to the Texan metro for a number of visits and a Republican fundraiser. His party's presumptive nominee, Ronald Reagan, was in Dallas for a campaign stop and suddely changed his travel schedule to Houston for a meeting with the vice president. The two men met at Scranton's hotel suite in Downtown Houston for a personal conversation before they attended the fundraiser. There were no photos taken from inside and Reagan reportedly only gave a five minute impromptu speech and introduced the vice president for his 45 minute speech on a wide range of issues.

Neither the vice president's office nor the Reagan campaign gave much details about the gatherings. Reagan only told a reporter that it was "a very good dialogue among friends", Scranton praised Reagan's outreach and declined further comment. The sudden meeting and their apparent secrecy about the conversation quickly led reporters to speculation about a potential role of Scranton in the fall campaign and a position in a possible Reagan Administration. A number of news outlets suggested Reagan may consider Scranton as vice presidential running mate. The Pennsylvanian would balance the ticket both geographically and ideologicaly. A moderate Republican, he would appeal to former Rockefeller backers who may reconsider voting Republican with the conservative Reagan. Although Reagan has begun courting "Rockefeller Republicans" and lately praised President Ford's efforts to cut spending and free Iran hostages, many moderate Republicans are still skeptical of him. A May Gallup poll found that 34% of Republican-registered voters who supported Nelson Rockefeller's reelection in 1976 are open to vote Democratic, 21% even said their mind is made up to vote for Brown or Bentsen. However, 85% of self described conservantives back Reagan; only 64% would have supported Ford in a general election.

William Scranton served as governor of Pennsylvania from 1963 to 1967 and was appointed UN Ambassador in 1973 by President Nelson Rockefeller. As such, he quickly gave the position more influence over foreign policy and arose to a critical advisor within the administration, working closely together with Secretary of State Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. After Gerald Ford's elevation to the presidency in May 1979, he nominated Scranton to be vice president under the 25th Amendment. Scranton's nomination was not well received among conservative Republicans; howerver, he was ultimately confirmed by overwhelming majorities in congress and sworin into office. Although personaly popular and of high integrity, political observers increasingly saw him as a placeholder regardless of Ford's fate and was expected to be replaced by a more conservative nominee. With President Ford's unexpected exit, political winds have shifted and Reagan is now the one in need for a more moderate running mate. Furthermore, Scranton would bring critical foreign policy experience to Reagan's ticket and assure supporters of detente that a Reagan Administration wouldn't change course too drastically.


May 31, 1980: New Gallup polls

President Ford job approval
Approve: 57% ▲
Disapprove: 38% ▼


Presidential election

Jerry Brown (D): 45%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 47%

Lloyd Bentsen (D): 45%
Ronald Reagan (R): 45%

[President Johnson]

List of Presidents:
36. Lyndon B. Johnson (Until January 20, 1973)
37. Nelson Rockefeller (January 20, 1973-May 17, 1979)
38. Gerald Ford (May 17, 1979-Present)

Also, Bobby Kennedy survived here and was vice president from 1969 to 1973, replacing Hubert Humphrey. He narrowly lost the 1972 election to Nelson Rockefeller and was elected governor of New York in 1974 and reelected in 1978.

[President Johnson]

June 3, 1980

BREAKING: JERRY BROWN SECURES DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION by winning majority of June primaries



The Democrats have a presumptive presidential nominee: California governor Jerry Brown won enough delegates to secure his party's nomination for the president, having defeated his remaining rival Lloyd Bentsen, the Texas senator. Bentsen was able to win a couple of June contests, but ultimately Brown's decisive victory in California finally got him over the finish line. At 42 years, Brown is the youngest nominee for president, one year younger than John F. Kennedy was in 1960. In his victory speech in Sacaramento, Brown put himself in Kennedy's tradition: "Twenty years after a historic election, we again made history. And together, we will win. Like Jack Kennedy defeated Nixon, we will defeat Reagan. And then we will continue the work of Jack Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Bobby Kennedy". He further more promised the national "renewal" and a "new dawn", which seems to be his general election slogan.

After his speech, the governor briefly talked to reporters and said his first act as president would be an unconditional pardon for all Vietnam draft dodgers. Presidents Rockefeller and Ford have rejected such, instead setting up a program for draft dodgers to apply for a pardon under certain conditions. Brown also emphasized the need for further treaties with the USSR to reduce defense capabilities. Instead, he wants to spend an additional 200 billion dollars on infrastructure and appoint a commission for energy independence by the end of the decade. Asked about vice presidential prospects, he declined. "We will find an excellent pick. Stay tuned!", he told an ABC reporter.


California
✓ Jerry Brown: 69.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 28.2%

District of Columbia
✓ Jerry Brown: 64.7%
Lloyd Bentsen: 34.8%

Montana
✓ Jerry Brown: 56.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 41.2%

New Jersey
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 51.9%
Jerry Brown: 48.0%

New Mexico
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 58.2%
Jerry Brown: 40.4%

North Dakota
✓ Jerry Brown: 50.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 49.1%

South Dakota
✓ Jerry Brown: 53.6%
Lloyd Bentsen: 45.6%



Jerry Brown: ~53% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~41% of delegates
Reubin Askew: ~ 4% of delegates
John Glenn: ~1% of delegates
Walter Mondale: ~1% of delegates


Bentsen concedes Democratic nomination, offers support to Brown as aides blame Askew for loss

It was just a brief appearance back in Dallas as Lloyd Bentsen conceded the nomination to Brown. "My fellows, it was hard fight and we did all we could. The nomination is Governor Brown's, and we all need to make sure he keeps Mr. Reagan away from the White House now", he said. "I will continue to be a voice in the senate and not hesitate to express my views, regardless of who the president is."

As Bentsen quickly disappeared into the night, some of his aides blamed Reubin Askew's late exit for their defeat in private conversations with reporters. The general mood was of disappointment and frustration. "Had Askew left earlier, we would have done way better. There could be only one Southerner", one remarked. Another expressed doubt Brown was up to the task of beating Reagan or even the govern. "The guy knows nothing about DC. Neither does Reagan", the Bentsen aide is quoted.


Reagan congretualtes Brown for nomination, promises “fair but tough fight”



Ronald Reagan was at a campaign event in Columbus, Ohio as he learned about Brown's triumph. "I hereby express my congretulations to Governor Brown", the said, "I've known him for a while and he's a smart fellow. Winning a major party nomination at 42 as a second term governor of the largest state in the nation is quite an accomplishment. I look forward to a tough but fair battle over the leadership of this country. The issues remain the same, and we need to make sure voters know what I stand for. And that is less taxes, less regulation and more freedom. What Governor Brown wants to do is return to the tax and spend era of the Johnson years, which is an economic philosophy which - I believe - will be rejected after years of stagnation. Even more troubling is Governor Brown's desire for cuts in defense. This will not happen with me." Reagan also added he's confident to win, but nobody should take it for granted. Lastly, he confirmed to meet with President Ford at the White House soon. The president has not endorsed Reagan formally yet, though is expected to do so at the Republican convention.


Ad-hoc polls post Brown nomination

Gallup conducted a number of polls the days after Jerry Brown de facto secured the Democratic nomination. Not just a new national poll is out, all 50 states have been polled for their presidential peference. Less than six months before the election, the outcome appears wide open.


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 47%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 46%


State by state polling

Shadings indicate tossup, lean, likely or safe Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the premise of this TL my guess is Brown wins but I hope California still goes Republican in that scenario lol

[Joe Biden 2024]

Given the premise of this TL my guess is Brown wins but I hope California still goes Republican in that scenario lol

I'm thinking the opposite. I think Reagan's gonna win, but his term will be a failure, which sets up a much more liberal Democrat to beat him in 1984.

[Sir Mohamed]

I didn't realize this TL was back. I read it 2 years ago. Good to see it resumes.

My prediction is that Reagan's campaign collapses in late October and Brown wins a relative landslide.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I’m not sure I read this back in the day, but I’m glad to have read it over the last few days! Brown 1980!

[President Johnson]

BONUS: Vice presidential hopefuls




Republican vice presidential shortlist

Although not officially confirmed, the following Republican politicians are under consideration for the second spot by the Reagan campaign. The presumptive nominee himself has declined to comment on the issue, though Reagan aides repeatedly told reporters off record their candidate is looking for a more moderate pick to appeal to Rockefeller Republicans as the late president still has high popularity among key voter groups.


William Scranton



Why he is considered: The sitting vice president, appointed under the 25th Amendment after Gerald Ford’s ascension, is an obvious choice. Scranton, a moderate Republican, would balance the ticket in many ways. Unlike Reagan, he has broad experience not just as governor of his homestate – that will be a battleground – but also as former UN Ambassador under President Rockefeller and now in Washington as Gerald Ford’s deputy. Conservatives faulted Ford for his selection in 1979, a year later, Scranton may provide critical strengths to the ticket and bolster Reagan’s chances for the presidency.

The odds: It’s unclear whether Scranton is interested in running for his current job; back in 1979 was merely considered a placeholder for President Ford. However, a recent Texas fundraiser with both Reagan and Scranton raised speculation about a potential offer. Neither the vice president nor the governor have commented on their personal meeting other than describing it as “friendly and productive conversation”.


Howard Baker



Why he is considered: Howard Baker has served as senator since 1967 and therefore brings critical Washington experience to the table. As vice president, he could help Reagan to establish good relationships on the Hill, including to Democratic lawmakers. Baker is a moderate respected across the aisle and from a Southern state. He would be a safe, “do no harm” pick.

The odds: Baker has declined to comment, but offered Reagan his support after previously campaigning for Gerald Ford.


Mark Hatfield



Why he is considered: The Oregon senator and former governor was a close confidant of late President Nelson Rockefeller, a fellow liberal Republican. Reports in 1978 and 1979 revealed that Rockefeller tried to convince Hatfield to enter the 1980 presidential race. Hatfield seemed undecided before tragedy struck and ended any presidential talks. However, he could provide ideological balance to a Reagan candidacy and become an ambassador to congress to a potential Reagan White House.

The odds: Hatfield is a possible choice, just not the likeliest. Like Reagan, he’s a Westerner and would offer little geographical diversity. Furthermore, he’s not well known outside Oregon, which isn’t a state worth much electoral votes.


David Rockefeller



Why he is considered: Yes, you read correct. Banker, businessman and brother of the late president David Rockefeller has been in contact with Reagan associates, sources say. During his brother’s presidency, he was a frequent guest at the White House and gave advice to a variety of issues. After Nelson’s death, Gerald Ford continued to take his counsel. While Rockefeller does not offer experience in elected office, he has been a successful businessman and been in charge of a large organization. Furthermore, a Rockefeller on the ticket may boost Reagan’s support among moderate and liberal Republicans, who remain lukewarm about him.

The odds: Low, but not impossible. The biggest hurdles are certainly his lack of political experience and potential conflicts of interest. Latter may overshadow Reagan’s entire campaign, and he’d certainly not like a vice presidential candidate in a negative spotlight that much. It’s also unclear whether Rockefeller would take an offer. However, don’t rule out the possibility.


Some other names were mentioned, but aren’t under consideration as of June. Among them were Attorney General Edward Brooke, a moderate Republican and the first African American on the position (also the first elected black senator). However, Brooke said he plans to leave public office after the conclusion of Ford’s term. Some observers also raised the idea of President Ford running for his old job, though the outgoing president repeatedly stated he could not see such a scenario. However, Nevada senator and Reagan ally Paul Laxalt stated back in May such a ticket would certainly win the election.



Democratic vice presidential shortlist

Jerry Brown hasn’t made a ton for newsworthy comments about a possible running mate, other than saying he looked a “governing partner”. He cited Lyndon Johnson/Bobby Kennedy as a role model, who unexpectedly put their years of rivalry and dislike to rest when they served together between 1969 and 1973. Kennedy was actually more involved in governing than his predecessor, Hubert Humphrey, after their alliance in 1968 was born out of desire to keep Richard Nixon out of the White House (who twice lost to a ticket with a Kennedy and Johnson). However, Lloyd Bentsen already ruled out the second spot under Brown as there was some bad blood between the two rivals and even more so among their aides.

Various sources have confirmed the following individuals are under consideration to be Jerry Brown's running mate in 1980 election:


Reubin Askew



Why he is considered: Askew rose to national prominence with his third place finish in the Democratic primaries. The former Florida governor would be a formidable pick for Brown, especially due to his homestate. Brown has struggled in Southern primaries and voters there are skeptical of him (which is why Reagan is already courting them). Askew could help here as he remains popular in Florida and Georgia. Furthermore, Askew looks back at a very successful governorship that may help governing.

The odds: Pretty good and Askew already signaled he would accept an offer. The biggest hurdle may be his lack of experience in Washington. Whether Brown looks for such is not entirely clear though.


John Glenn



Why he is considered: A former presidential contender and swing state senator; that’s already two strong reasons. Some would say the very definition of a vice presidential contender. Glenn is also well liked for his career as astronaut. He’d be a strong choice and could help with congressional relations.

The odds: Alongside Governor Askew, views as the most likely candidate. However, Glenn is not someone who would help with Southern voters. The question is: Do Brown’s campaign strategists decide to reach 270 electoral votes through the Midwest? It’s possible and Glenn would be helpful here.


Frank Church



Why he is considered: More than anyone on Capitol Hill, Church stands for transparency and good government reforms, a cornerstone of the Brown campaign. A lot of Brown’s proposals are only achievable through the legislative way, and Church would be more helpful than anyone else here. He has the connections on the Hill and the practical experience. Furthermore, Church has already endorsed Brown months before and both men seem to have a good personal relationship.

The odds: Medium. Church would be a safe pick and perhaps among the best to help govern. However, no governing without victory, and Church doesn’t bring on a ton of new voters. And Idaho, where he’s in a tough reelection battle for the senate, isn’t a real battleground, let alone a state with many electoral votes.


Lawton Chiles



Why he is considered: Like Askew, he’s a moderate Floridian who appeals to Southern voters. Chiles is lesser known on the national stage, but he has many friends in the senate, where he served for a decade now.

The odds: Medium. Chiles is not tested on the national stage so far. Certainly he’s considered a solid pick who could both help in the South and be a governing partner.


Wendell Ford



Why he is considered: A senator from a competitive state of the Upper South is already a plus for Wendell Ford. In addition, he's well known and popular among his constituents, having also served as governor until 1974. Senator Ford brings legislative and executive experience to the table and has proven appeal to Southern voters.

The odds: An option Brown has vowed to consider for his running mate. However, some Democrats are worried his departure from the senate may open up a pivotal seat the party would otherwise keep.



June 30, 1980: New Gallup polls

President Ford job approval
Approve: 54% ▼
Disapprove: 43% ▲


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 45%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 45%


State by state polling

Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[Joe Biden 2024]

I'm a tad confused cause the description in the shortlist would indicate that Hugh Carey is Governor of New York as in OTL, but I thought Bobby was still Governor.

[President Johnson]

I'm a tad confused cause the description in the shortlist would indicate that Hugh Carey is Governor of New York as in OTL, but I thought Bobby was still Governor.

Damn, you're right. It was too late at night when he wrote the text. Obviously I removed him now and put in Wendell Ford, who would be indeed be a contender that makes sense.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan should pick Baker as VP

[President Johnson]

Reagan should pick Baker as VP

Whom would you recommend to Brown?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan should pick Baker as VP

Whom would you recommend to Brown?

Wendell Ford as I think KY and the upper south is more winnable than FL

[President Johnson]

July 1980

As unemployment rises to 7.9%, Ford White House and Congress differ on strategy for recovery



As soon as the June jobs reported came out, members of both parties clashed on how to interpret them and, even more importantly, what to do. Congressional Democrats quickly faulted the Ford Administration for austerity politics, as the president has vetoed a number of spending bills in recent months. President Ford and his team quickly rejected the criticism. “We can’t spend our way out of this economic downturn by ever increasing deficits”, the president told reporters on the White House lawn. “We can talk about certain expenditures that have a stimulating effect, but unfortunately my Democratic friends in the congress have ignored my offer to come up with meaningful spending cuts. None were offered”, he added. Ford also emphasized that their presidential nominee Jerry Brown has governed California as a fiscal moderate, sometimes even more so than Reagan during his term. “Congressional Democrats are even out of step with their nominee”, the chief executive also said.

Meanwhile, Ronald Reagan has emphasized for a broad tax reform to lower corporate taxes and several tax brackets for individuals. He promised to present a tax reform plan by September, after taking his formal nomination. He also called upon congress to negotiate with President Ford for immediate action. Jerry Brown promptly responded by attacking Reagan: “It’s the same old stuff Harding and Hoover tried and took us to economic ruin”.

On July 16, a White House spokesman said President Ford may call a special session of congress in August and demand legislative action to stimulate economic recovery.


Insider reports: Nixon’s shadow diplomacy failed on Iran hostages, pressure on Ford mounts



The labor market is the only major issue for the Ford Administration: Over a half year after Iran’s regime has taken American hostages, no end is in sight. Having tried various diplomatic efforts and even threat of military action, the regime in Teheran has moved little. Sources surrounding Secretary of State Richard Nixon have confessed an informal and secret meeting arranged by German chancellor Helmut Schmidt between Nixon and Iranian diplomats hasn’t produced any results. Some insiders of the State Department expect Nixon to pressure the president into military action. Nixon already did so months ago, but Gerald Ford so far has been reluctant due to concerns over a wider conflict. He urged Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger to try all diplomatic options. Assessing the situation after Nixon’s return, President Ford may have to make a very critical decision in his remaining months as commander-in-chief.

Completing an eight year tenure as America’s chief diplomat in just a few months, Richard Nixon has increased his personal effort in the Iran situation. After Nelson Rockefeller unexpectedly picked him for the job after helping to defeat Ronald Reagan on the floor of the 1972 Republican National Convention, Nixon – the failed nominee of 1960 and 1968 – has changed his image from “Tricky Dick” to one of the most highly respected diplomats in the world and one key architect of détente under Presidents Rockefeller and Ford.


Lawton Chiles: I’m not interested in being vice president


 
Jerry Brown’s vice presidential shortlist has become shorter: Florida Senator Lawton Chiles officially denied interest in the position: “It’s an honor to have my name mentioned. However, I’m not interested to be vice president. My place is in the senate and my expectation is to run for reelection in 1982.” Sources say the senator informed Brown via telephone ahead of his announcement.


Brown vows to name vice presidential pick by August 1, Reagan at RNC

With Lawton Chiles’ announcement, the vice presidential question has been brought back into the news. On July 24, a spokeswoman for the Brown campaign confirmed the selection process was nearing completion and the governor is expected to announce his pick by August 1. Sources familiar with the campaign stated Brown didn’t indicate a tendency to a certain candidate. However, he reportedly spoke with Wendell Ford and Frank Church more than once in person and that Church hasn’t hired additional staff for his reelection campaign to the senate.

Meanwhile, a Reagan spokesman said the Republican nominee was naming his choice at the RNC in late August. Speculation arose during a visit in Washington DC where he again met with Vice President Scranton and on July 21 during a campaign stop in Tennessee that Howard Baker also attended. Asked about a vice presidential nomination, Baker responded to a reporter: “I’m more interested in electing Governor Reagan rather than talking about running mates.” Reagan, standing next to Baker, just smiled into the camera.


July 31, 1980: New Gallup polls

The weak jobs market and ongoing hostage crisis apparently begin the impact the polls. Not just President Ford's approval rating has taken a hit, Reagan is now trailing his opponent in a new national poll. Furthermore, a new poll from California has Brown ahead 47-45%. The Golden State is the most watched in this upcoming contest as two California governor battle for 45 electoral votes, more than any other state. Brown also went ahead in Michigan 48-46%, homestate of President Ford. Only in Illinois, a new surves found a 46-46% tie, after Brown was ahead the month before. Reagan's previous double digit leads in Florida, Nevada and Virginia were reduced by margins in mid and high single digits.


President Ford job approval
Approve: 50% ▼
Disapprove: 45% ▲


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 46%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 43%


State by state polling

Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[Joe Biden 2024]

My prediction: Reagan chooses Scranton and Brown chooses Glenn.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Great to see this back! Brown 1980, and hopefully Ford takes military action to free the hostages before the election.

[President Johnson]

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION




BREAKING: BROWN announces FRANK CHURCH as VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE



In Lansing, Michigan, the Democratic National Convention opened its doors to nominate California Governor Jerry Brown as the party’s presidential candidate. Senator John Glenn, keynote speaker, announced his speech Brown’s long awaited pick for the vice presidency: Senator Frank Church of Idaho. Church has already endorsed Brown for the nomination back in spring and emerged as a staunch campaigner for the Californian. More than anyone on Capitol Hill, Church stands for transparency and good government reforms, a cornerstone of the Brown campaign. A lot of Brown’s proposals are only achievable through the legislative way, and Church would be more helpful than anyone else here. He has the connections on the Hill and the practical experience to could help govern.

Church has yet announce whether he continues to run for reelection to the senate as well.


Other notable speakers of the day:

- Robert F. Kennedy, Governor of New York and former Vice President of the United States. Kennedy praised his party’s ticket for this year as a true “reform duo” for the renewal of the country.

- Nicholas Katzenbach, former Johnson Administration Secretary of State. He criticized the Ford Administration for its handling of the Iran hostage crisis and warned of Ronald Reagan, who would be “dangerous amateur” that can’t be trusted with world diplomacy.

- Tip O’Neill, Speaker of the House. Calling for a stimulus program to bring the economy back. “Ford is a hostage of Reagan’s extreme conservatism, whose only philosophy is “cut, cut and cut again”.

- Mario Cuomo, Senator of New York. Echoing O’Neill’s words and describing Reagan as “Goldwater with a smile”.

At the end of the day, Brown was officially nominated with the votes of 78% of the delegates. Church’s nomination for vice president was accepted by a voice vote.


The Second Day, August 7, was highlighted by Frank Church’s acceptance speech for the vice presidential spot. Church’s speech was very passionate, especially his attacks against Ronald Reagan.




Frank Church: Thank you from the bottom of my heart. My fellow Democrats, I hereby accept your nomination to become the next Vice President of the United States. [Cheers] It’s the greatest honor of my professional life and I can assure you, I will fight like hell to make Jerry Brown our next president. […] We’ve had enough of the same old. The Republicans try to sell themselves as Rockefeller moderates. They ain’t anymore! [Crowd: They ain’t anymore! They ain’t no more!] No my friends, they have revealed their true faces. It’s Goldwater’s party now and Mr. Reagan is their Trojan horse. Make no mistake, this is Goldwater with a smile. But we don’t want Goldwater in any shape or form. They’re about to bring back the failed economic policies of the 1920s and a gross incompetence on the world stage. The president, who was too weak to beat back Reagan, has allowed the situation in Iran to go on for months. And, let me clear, I wish him success because we want the hostage home, but would anyone of you trust Mr. Reagan in a situation like this? [Crowd: No! No! No!] Of course not! Nobody would! Not even Republicans themselves. Not even Tricky Dick! Even Tricky Dick knows he needs to resolve this before Mr. Reagan gets his finger on the button. But we have a message for Tricky Dick and the Republicans: We are going to win this election. […] And we will have Jerry Brown as our president. A president, who fights for the future of kids and grandkids. Let’s come together and make it happen. Let’s win this election! [Cheers]

The final day, August 8, saw a number of notable speakers, including singer Linda Rohnstadt, Governor Brown’s partner. He was finally introduced by Cesar Chavez, labor leader and longtime ally of his.



Jerry Brown: Ladies and Gentlemen, my fellow Americans: Are you ready? Are you reading to build a new future for our country in peace and prosperity? I can tell you, I am. And that’s why I accept your nomination for president. [Cheers] We all know the Republicans and Mr. Reagan and where they want to take us. Back to the 1920s. That’s no secret. Mr. Reagan is a voice of the past. […] But tonight I want to talk about us. Our future. As one nation, under god. I’m running for president to build a future for all of us: One of my first bills introduced will be a comprehensive economic recovery plan that will help working people out of this mess. The White House has tragically failed by Mr. Ford’s unwillingness to listen to common sense. He’s already acting like Mr. Reagan. I want to invest into our future with tax breaks for the middle class and asking the wealthy to pay little more. Because we are the Democrats. We care about common people. That’s what we have this party for. Not for the Rockefellers. Second, I will raise the minimum wage to a living wage and build a modern infrastructure. And third, we turn the federal government around as I have already in California. I cleaned up what Reagan left us, and I will do it again. […] Lastly, I will make sure we have proper ethic guidelines in this country. And the man to do it: Frank Church! The next Vice President of the United States! […] Let’s go, my fellow Democrats, we are going to win this election and keep Mr. Reagan into retirement!


August 10: Post DNC-polls


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 48%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 44%


State by state polling

Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[Fetterman my beloved]

BROWN/CHURCH 1980

[President Johnson]

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION






DAY I: August 23

William Scranton for vice president? Negotiations between Reagan and Scranton camps



Reports coming out from convention circles indicate that Ronald Reagan has increasingly warmed up to keeping Vice President William Scranton in office and offer him the second spot on his ticket. The possibility was already discussed after Reagan and Scranton met more than once in recent weeks. Accordingly, Reagan aides already reached out to the vice president prior the convention and also asked President Ford for advice. However, the president declined, saying it was solely up to Reagan. On August 22, one day before the convention begun, Scranton returned a call to campaign executives, requesting a personal meeting with Reagan before delegates actually meet. Due to schedule problems, the meeting didn’t occur, though the two men had a telephone conversation as reporters covering the vice president told the press. The presumptive nominee reportedly asked Scranton directly: “Are you interested?”. “There are certain conditions under whom I’d see myself running and serving in that role”, the response was. Asked what he meant, Scranton reportedly said he wanted the same role in a Reagan Administration that Ford had in Rockefeller’s and even Bobby Kennedy had under Lyndon Johnson, especially towards the end of their terms in 1973. Ergo, he wanted major influence over decisions. Reagan then asked about his role in the current administration, which Scranton refused to answer and instead told Reagan to talk to Gerald Ford directly. After Reagan again asked to hear directly from Scranton, the latter again requested a personal meeting. According to reports, Reagan agreed to that and hung up. Later on, an aide found out a meeting was difficult to arrange at the convention site since Reagan was expected to arrive late on the second day, the day the vice presidential nomination was about to be announced. The aide then called back Scranton, who demanded Reagan to make an offer before giving an answer whether he'd take the nomination.

It is not known what happened afterwards, or whether Reagan aides actually informed him about Scranton’s stances. Some aides, however, told reporters off camera that Scranton overreaches in his demands.


Scranton gives Cronkite interview: “Reagan has to make an offer”



The vice president arrived at the convention on the first day, ahead of Reagan, whose arrival was scheduled for August 24. CBS' own Walter Cronkite was able to talk to the vice president, especially about the vice presidential choice.

Cronkite: Welcome to the set, Mr. Vice President.

Scranton: My pleasure, Water. How are you doing?

Cronkite: We're fine, thank you. Mr. Vice President, you have been meeting with Governor Reagan numerous times in recent months. Can you tell us whether you discussed the campign and if so - which I assume - provide a few details. Neither your team nor the campaign staff gave us specifics.

Scranton: It's quite obvious we talked about a lot of things, including how we can get the economy moving again and free our hostages in Iran. I can tell you that the governor is committed to do anything possible to end this horrific situation and support President Ford in his efforts in doing so. However, the governir is prepared to deal with this situation should be be elected and all efforts fail up until January.

Cronkite: And the campaign?

Scranton: We talked about a lot of issues concerning the campaign. And how we make sure to gain more seats in congress.

Cronkite: Sir, I'm trying to get you to talk about the job you currently hold: the vice presidency. Your name has been floated for the position. Are you seriously considering to become the next John Calhoun, who served under two presidents?

Scranton (laughs): Look, Walter, I’m not going to discuss these matters in front of the camera. Governor Reagan is going to announce his pick whom he believes can serve the nation well and him as a governing partner. My name was mentioned, and I take pride in that. In the end, it’s a question of his decision and certain factors.

Cronkite: What factors, Mr. Vice President?

Scranton: Obviously the role the vice president.

Cronkite: So you have certain conditions?

Scranton: It’s not up to me outline any conditions. It’s an honor to be mentioned. If anything, there needs to be an offer from the nominee and should that come, you will find out.

Cronkite: So you might decide a potential offer is not worth taking?

Scranton: I’m not discussing what-ifs. It’s up to the governor to make an offer. I’m available for any discussion.

Cronkite: Well, wouldn't you prefer to be an elected vice president? History would otherwise only remember you as first appointed second in command.

Scranton: Walter, I know you want me to say yes or no. But I can't do that. What I always said that I'd be availabe for any role Governor Reagan thinks is approriate for me serve in. He has to make such an offer. Any should that offer arrive me, I will make a decision.

Cronkite: Would you want more influence than you have today under Gerald Ford?

Scranton: I don't see this in terms of influence. It's about actual policies I care about. But again, Governor Reagan is the one to make an offer. He's absolutely free to make such an offer to me or anyone else.

Cronkite: Mr. Vice President, I thank you for that exchange.

Scranton: Always. Thank you.


David Rockefeller negotiates between Reagan and Scranton camps for vice presidency, reportedly urges Reagan to pick someone else

According to various sources, the interview angered some Reagan aides. Scranton was taking himself too seriously, they said. However, Reagan still liked the idea to show some continuity from the Rockefeller/Ford era and appease moderates that their voices are heard. Nevertheless, he was not prepared to win over Scranton and thought he’d be willing to pick up an offer immediately after he expected to run with President Ford. After talking to Ford, the president proposed David Rockefeller, a close confidant and Nelson’s brother, as ad-hoc negotiator between the camps. Initially, he proposed Richard Nixon as negotiator, though the secretary of state declined to get involved in the issue and continues to work at the diplomatic front.

It was never officially confirmed, though Rockefeller in the end recommended Reagan not to pick Scranton and warned he’d otherwise have an authority problem. Rockefeller also reportedly spoke with President Ford about the matter, who noted that Reagan may be better served with a vice presidential pick from Capitol Hill. "Nelson chose me for that reason in '72, and it proved to be a good decision. Ronnie never served in congress and having an experienced vice presidential as ambassador to the Hill would do him a favor", the president is quoted. It’s not known how much Ford's and Rockefeller's stances influenced Reagan, though the late president’s brother increasingly spoke with Reagan after his own name was flirted for the vice presidency himself. According to sources, David Rockefeller declined interest in the position, though Reagan is rumored to have offered him a position in his cabinet.


---

Note: I wanted to pack the entire RNC in one update, but it grew too long to read. Therefore the second part will follow very soon. Much sooner than this update (I was just too busy these days).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Love how it’s supposed to resemble Ford’s interview at the 1980 RNC but without outlining any demands

[President Johnson]

DAY II: August 24

BREAKING: REAGAN choses HOWARD BAKER as RUNNING MATE



Ronald Reagan, after extensive consultations with aides and Republican circles finally made his decision: In Tennessee senator Howard Baker, he chose a running mate. It’s reported that the nominee was still inclined to stick with William Scranton after the previous day’s confusion, though campaign aides increasingly pressured him to reconsider and arrange an ad-hoc meeting with Senator Baker. That conversation went well according to numerous sources and Baker signaled his willingness to accept the vice presidential spot if offered. After the meeting, the former governor spoke to his wife and also asked David Rockefeller for advice again, whom recommended Baker as well. “If your team, which is supposed to be part of your inner White House circle, doesn’t get along with Scranton, it’s causing too much trouble”, Rockefeller is quoted, “you even don’t want too much attention for the second guy.” Reagan finally made his pick and called Scranton to inform him of his decision, whom himself congratulated Baker. The senator thanked Reagan in person and pledged his full support to win the election. Reagan in return offered his new found partner a strong role to negotiate with congress on his behalf, should the duo win the November election.

Rockefeller then had the privilege to introduce Baker as vice presidential nominee, who was confirmed with a voice vote by the delegates. Baker then took the stage and spoke for about twenty-five minutes, pledging to work for unity within the party. “Some folks have said I’m a moderate Republican and that’s why Governor Reagan chose me. Because he’s a conservative Republican. What I can tell you is that these terms don’t matter to me. We’re all Republicans, united behind core principles for America: Freedom, prosperity, peace and honor. We may differ here and there how to get there, but these goals are set in stone. For all of us. I will do my best to help Governor Reagan win this election and make sure we lead this nation in the right direction.”

Baker’s speech was honored with a lasting applause. Sources tell the press that several moderate Republicans are satisfied with the pick and have finally come along to support Reagan’s candidacy.


President Gerald Ford officially endorses Reagan in Convention speech



Originally scheduled for the first day, President Gerald Ford’s speech at the Republican National was moved to the second day, officially for “schedule reasons”, as the White House stated. Air Force One landed in Kansas City in the morning. Asked by a reporter whether he felt any bitterness over his loss of the nomination, Ford denied the assumption. “There is no bitterness, no bad blood lost, nothing”, the president said, “I had a great run over 40 years in politics. I’ve served in the House, as vice president and took the call to finish President Rockefeller’s business. I made the decision not to stand for reelection in spring and I’m at peace with myself. Right now, my focus is on the nation’s business and help my party to win across the board. That’s what Eisenhower and Rockefeller would have done, if they were with us. And Governor Reagan knows that, too.”

The convention itself gave Ford a long and enthusiastic applause when he entered the stage at Howard Baker’s introduction that even observers surprised. A reporter noted that nearly half or “even more” delegates wanted Ford to be the nominee and run for reelection as the natural successor of late President Nelson Rockefeller, who won a second term in 1976 in a massive 50 state landslide and led the Republicans to major downballot gains. Ford opened his remarks by thanking supporters for their lasting confidence and the work of the past eight years in which he mostly served as vice president. Ford listed accomplishments of the Rockefeller years before he finally voiced his endorsement: “Governor Reagan and myself, despite mutual respect for each other, had our differences. And that’s the way it is in a big tent party. Now, I kept you long enough in suspense: I hereby endorse Governor Ronald Reagan to be the next president of the United States! Now, I’ve known Ron for a long time, and one thing was always clear: He’s always been a man of his word. A man with a vision and a man with courage, who loves his country and wants to make it a better place for all of us. That’s why we need to work as hard as we can to get him elected.”

It’s reported that Ford and Reagan later had a private dinner together with their wives. Reagan confidents said he plans to consult Ford more frequently and is likely to so even as president. “His personal greatness to exit the race gracefully has impressed the governor”, an aide is quoted.


DAY III: August 25

REAGAN ACCEPTS REPUBLICAN NOMINATION



August 25 was Ronald Reagan’s big day: Before thousands of delegates, he finally accepted the Republican nomination for president. It was historic not only that the party nominated the oldest candidate at 69, it was also the first time since 1964 a member of the conservative wing gained the candidacy. Back then, Reagan was a staunch supporter of Barry Goldwater, who introduced Reagan to the podium, whose campaign ended in an epic defeat. Although slowly growing influence and acceptance among voters since that year, Republicans feared another staunch conservative nominee. After turning to Richard Nixon again in 1968, who was defeated by Lyndon Johnson, Nelson Rockefeller – a liberal Republican – led the party to two conservative victories, winning over Robert Kennedy and Edmund Muskie. However, the conservative wing’ influence rose in the late 1970s, in part as opposition to Rockefeller’s (and Ford’s) centrist policies. Reagan himself was eager to learn from Goldwater’s mistakes and Republicans followed his lead, giving another conservative the chance to reclaim the White House after so many years in opposition. And unlike Goldwater, Reagan had the charisma to appeal to voters beyond the classical conservative electorate that Goldwater captured.

Taking the stage, Reagan used his national platform to promote his polices: Lower taxes, less regulation, a stronger national defense and traditional family values. These were conservative issues at heart, and with his charismatic speech, Reagan won the delegates and many viewers. However, he knew that still a decent junk of delegates and elected GOP officials preferred Gerald Ford in the driver’s seats, even more conservative members thought the incumbent might stand a greater chance to win the party a historic third term in 1600 Penn. Reagan was aware of that and pledged a sense of continuity by praising Rockefeller and Ford: “And with all my heart, I pledge to you, that I will be a president that leads with pragmatism and the relentless will to get something done. A quality that has been consistent among Republican presidents: Eisenhower, Rockefeller and Ford. They knew how to work with people. At home and abroad”, the former governor said. “I will not be distracted by all the noise coming from liberal ideologues in congress, which have held a people’s agenda hostage for their purpose. We seek what every common sense American seeks: Pursuit of happiness, self-responsibility and less government in all aspects of our lives. A government that serves the people, not the government itself. A government of a strong defense and less waste. Time and time again, Republicans in congress and the White House have worked of these goals, and time and time again, the Democratic Party has used its power to prevent that. Let us send them a message and let us together restore the true greatness of this nation!”, he continued, and delegates cheered.

In his final words, Reagan took aim at Democratic nominee Jerry Brown. “He governed as a fiscal moderate in California, but when you look at the policies he has subscribed to, a Brown presidency will end in fiscal ruin”, Reagan said about his successor in Sacramento. He finally promised to “fight, fight and fight” to win the election. The convention was his: An overall success.


August 26: Post RNC-polls


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 46%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 46%


State by state polling

Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.