The liberal Republic

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just one important detail- the Golan Heights aren't an issue in the Egyptian agreement, that's the Sinai peninsula, which Israel would indeed give back in any possible agreement.

The Golan Heights are a Syrian demand for a peace agreement, but it's more dear to Israelis than Sinai (though in 1978 it was less so). I, personally, would hate to give it back even in 1978, and I'm on the left side of the Israeli population, so make of it what you will

Also, shame on Reagan for supporting the racist Helms- go Holshouser!!!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Who is the Democrat in the NC race?

[President Johnson]

Who is the Democrat in the NC race?

To be determined in the primary, but probably no change from the actual 1978 race

Just one important detail- the Golan Heights aren't an issue in the Egyptian agreement, that's the Sinai peninsula, which Israel would indeed give back in any possible agreement.

The Golan Heights are a Syrian demand for a peace agreement, but it's more dear to Israelis than Sinai (though in 1978 it was less so). I, personally, would hate to give it back even in 1978, and I'm on the left side of the Israeli population, so make of it what you will

Also, shame on Reagan for supporting the racist Helms- go Holshouser!!!

Right, the Sinai will be definitely be part of the agreement. But as the Golan Heights are a source of conflict, they are included even though it doesn't affect Egytian territory. Would you support a demilitarized zone under de facto UN control? I think that's not too unrealistic, especially if the Russians get on board.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Who is the Democrat in the NC race?

To be determined in the primary, but probably no change from the actual 1978 race

Just one important detail- the Golan Heights aren't an issue in the Egyptian agreement, that's the Sinai peninsula, which Israel would indeed give back in any possible agreement.

The Golan Heights are a Syrian demand for a peace agreement, but it's more dear to Israelis than Sinai (though in 1978 it was less so). I, personally, would hate to give it back even in 1978, and I'm on the left side of the Israeli population, so make of it what you will

Also, shame on Reagan for supporting the racist Helms- go Holshouser!!!

Right, the Sinai will be definitely be part of the agreement. But as the Golan Heights are a source of conflict, they are included even though it doesn't affect Egytian territory. Would you support a demilitarized zone under de facto UN control? I think that's not too unrealistic, especially if the Russians get on board.

Well, I'd not really be up for that since demilitarized zones with UN responsibility never work- UN soldiers are really the worst, they run at the first sign of danger.

That's another point though- as an Israeli, I'd be pretty annoyed at Rockfeller for making this a Cold War issue- originally, the Carter administration helped negotiations but it was also clear that it's going to be a Middle Eastern issue, with Sa'adat visiting the Knesset and the two leaders negotiating in good faith, with America as a bridge. Making this a Cold War issue of compromise between the U.S. And the USSR would personally make me a bit iffy, since I'd see this as the two great powers using Israel and Egypt as chess pieces in the game again.

So to summarize- I'd be more supportive of an agreement between two nations with America as a negotiator, and I'd find it pretty important to keep Israeli military protecting at least the Kineret, an important water source of ours, and the very strategic position of Mount Hermon.

Of course, in retrospect, Israel was very wise not to give up on the Heights- today it serves as a very important strategic defense against the Iranian influence in Syria, and it saved the Druze population there from the horrors of the civil war, as well as the people of the Galilee in northern Israel (where I live actually) from being caught between the hammer and the anvil- Hezbollah from Lebanon in the north and the very unstable and dangerous Syria in the east.

Back in 1979, we obviously couldn't predict all that, so it would be more possible than later, but I guess it's also important to note that Begin was very stubborn on this issue- his government was the one that later on officially annexed the Golan Heights, annoying the international community. The Golan Heights were very important to him because of their strategic importance and natural beauty, much more important than Sinai, so it won't be easy.

[President Johnson]

May 2, 1978

BREAKING: Holshouser takes down Helms in bitter senate primary



Slammed by his opponent as "fraud and Rockefeller puppet", Governor James Holshouser has edged out a win in the Republican senate primary against Jesse Helms


North Carolina Republican senate primary
✓ James Holshouser: 53.1%
Jesse Helms (inc.): 46.8%

Impressive victory for the moderate wing of the Republican Party: North Carolina Governor James Holshouser defeated incumbent Senator Jesse Helms in a hotly contested primary for the Republican senatorial nomination. The Rockefeller-backed candidate secured a six-point win over his conservative rival, who is known as one of the most right-wing lawmakers frequently at odds with the administration’s policies. Helms, a first term senator, was endorsed by former California governor and Talkshow host Ronald Reagan, who is the leader of the GOP’s conservative wing and considered a contender for president in 1980 after very narrowly losing the nomination to Nelson Rockefeller in 1972. After election returns came in, Helms outright conceded to Holshouser and said he would serve out his term to January 1979. In the final days of the campaign, he went personally and attacked his opponent as “a fraud and Rockefeller puppet”. The governor then countered by slamming Helms as “a bigot unworthy of the senate”. Now the voters decided to put Holshouser up against face populist Democrat John Ingram, the state’s Insurance Commissioner, in the November general election. The race is considered toss-up.

“We’ve lost this battle. That is sad, but our cause goes on”, Reagan commented the election. The president congratulated Holshouser, who has been governor of his state since 1973, to his victory: “Governor Holshouser will be an independent and solutions-oriented senator working for the benefit of North Carolina and our nation”, the president said.


Political observers: North Carolina senate primary hardly an indicator for 1980


Walter Cronkite sat down with Arthur Schlesinger to talk about the North Carolina senate primary

As soon as James Holshouser was declared the winner of the North Carolina senate primary, political observers begun to weigh in what impacts, if at all, the outcome of this contest has. However, most agreed it was hardly an indicator that the party would go into the 1980 presidential election with a moderate candidate.

Walter Cronkite interviewed political scientist and historian Arthur Schlesinger to talk about implications from North Carolina.

Walter Cronkite: Welcome Mr. Schlesinger. Glad to have you on.

Arthur Schlesinger: The pleasure is mine.

Walter Cronkite: Mr. Schlesinger, what caused Jesse Helms’ defeat? Or James Holshouser’s win?

Arthur Schlesinger: I think in the end it came down to turnout, as this race was relatively close. President Rockefeller’s final campaign stump in the last days obviously paid off. Nevertheless, it was a risky thing for him because it is unusual that a sitting president intervenes in a primary of his own party against an incumbent. FDR did something similar in his second term, when he aimed to oust conservative Democrats to continue the New Deal. And as we know, he failed and was not able to pass significant reforms in the next congress. Another factor contributed to this outcome is the governor’s popularity and the fact that Jesse Helms is a divisive figure. Sure, there are other conservatives in the senate, but they are less divisive. In Arizona, for example, no attempt to oust Barry Goldwater would have been successful.

Walter Cronkite: Is this a defeat for the conservative GOP faction? And for Ronald Reagan in particular since he endorsed Helms?

Arthur Schlesinger: It is a loss, for sure, but I don’t see lasting impacts. If Ronald Reagan runs for president again, what we don’t know yet even though it looks like he will do so, and doesn’t make it to the nomination, it won’t be because of this senate primary.

Walter Cronkite: You mentioned 1980 already. Where do you see this going? The party on track to nominate another moderate?

Arthur Schlesinger: Impossible the answer. It’s still two years, which is a lifetime in politics. The biggest asset for moderates is probably the president himself, even though he can’t run again. If Nelson Rockefeller is still popular, he will have a say. If his support starts eroding for some reason, what can happen, the party might see Reagan as their savior. The moderates' problem at this point, even though it is early, is the lack of a clear national leader other than the president. If they want to beat Reagan or another conservative, they need someone who can take him down. You can't beat somebody with nobody, right? Ronald Reagan as of now is still the conservative standard bearer. Who do moderates have to offer? The vice president? Gerald Ford has shown no interest running for office and has not an own base of support other than being Nelson Rockefeller's second-in-command. Richard Nixon? He is done with presidential runs. Mark Hatfield appears to be a potential candidate to lead the moderates. But that’s just speculation. We don't know if he or Reagan actually run and how far they will go in the end. That also depends on the Democrats and who they select as their leader. It is not a done deal that Robert Kennedy will be their candidate, should he decide to try again. Just remember how Jimmy Carter was seen as the great frontrunner leading up to 1976, and then he didn't do well in the primaries. Lloyd Bentsen instead became a leader among southern Democrats who can appeal to other constituencies as well. So, we might see completely other Republicans in the game. For example UN Ambassador William Scranton, a moderate, or Congressman Jack Kemp, a strong voice for conservatives. In the end, I believe, this is going to be a more ideologically balanced GOP ticket than Rockefeller/Ford was.

Walter Cronkite: Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts.

Arthur Schlesinger: As always, my pleasure.


May 26, 1978: President Rockefeller signs deregulation bills



President Nelson Rockefeller signed some important deregulation bills into law

In late May, congress passed a series of administration backed deregulation legislation, that President Nelson Rockefeller signed into law:

- Airline Deregulation Act to deregulate airline traffic. However, the act does not gut the regulatory powers of the Federal Aviation Administration over security aspects.
- Amendments to the Energy Market Deregulation laws the president approved in his first term to increase competition and consumer’s choice.
- The Banking Deregulation Act to exclude small banks from provisions of the Glass-Steagall-Act.

All bills were introduced in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and passed the senate with bipartisan support. Senate Majority Leader Byrd, however, stopped another bill to weaken provisions of the 1963 Clean Air Act, after President Rockefeller signaled his intention to veto such legislation if reached his desk.


May 31, 1978: New Gallup polls

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 55% ▼
Disapprove: 38% ▲


1978 generic congressional ballot
Republicans: 47%
Democrats: 45%

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Sweet. Is Hunt still Lieutenant Governor?

[President Johnson]

June 1, 1978: New healthcare law introduced in senate and passes in committee


Senators Albert Brewer (D-AL) and Clifford Case (R-NJ) wrote a new piece of legislation on healthcare and got this one to the senate floor

After the Cuomo-Javits healthcare law for universal healthcare failed due to strong opposition, Senators Albert Brewer (D-AL) and Clifford Case (R-NJ) took suggestions from the plan proposed by Vice President Gerald Ford to author a new piece of legislation aimed to expand coverage. In May, the two senators presented the American Healthcare Act of 1978 to the public: An employer mandate to offer private health insurance if employees volunteered to pay 25% of premiums, replacement of Medicaid by state-run health insurance plans available to all with income-based premiums and cost sharing, and replacement of Medicare with a new federal program that eliminated the limit on hospital days and added outpatient prescription drug coverage.

The Rockefeller Administration formally supported the law soon after and President Rockefeller hosted congressional leaders to lobby for the bill. With Leader Byrd’s help, the bill passed committee and was put on the senate floor for a vote later in June. It was the first meaningful legislation with a chance of passage since the Johnson Administration’s Children Healthcare Program in 1969 and Social Security Amendments in 1965. The American Healthcare Act found additional co-sponsors from both parties, among them: Mario Cuomo (D-NY), Jacob Javits (R-NY), Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Lawton Chiles (D-FL) and Lowell Weicker (R-CT). Minority Leader Mark Hatfield (R-OR) said he leans towards voting for the bill, while Republican Whip John Tower and other conservatives opposed the act. But the shift in Hatfield’s stance and some moderates from both parties gave the bill enough votes not to fall victim to a filibuster. Whether it passed the senate (and later the House) was another matter.


June 22, 1978

BREAKING: Gerald Ford casts tie-breaking vote to ensure Healthcare bill passage in senate



With a tie-breaking vote, Vice President Gerald Ford ensured the passage of the American Healthcare Act of 1978

50-50 was the final count when Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd put the American Healthcare Act of 1978 on the floor. The closest margin it could get. In the end, 50 senators voted in favor and 50 against. As a close vote was expected, Vice President Gerald Ford himself, in his role as senate president, presided over the session. And he was indeed needed: As the tally stood 50-50, Ford broke the tie and voted in favor, securing the bill’s passage in congress’ upper chamber. A major win for the administration.


Bill’s fate in the U.S. House unclear

Now, the administration backed bill can now go over to the House of Representatives. This is expected to be an even tougher fight than the senate, as there is major opposition (and support) from both parties. Republicans have a narrow 220-215 seat majority in the chamber. Probably two-thirds of Southern Democrats and a handful of northern ones are expected to vote against the bill, while the Republican conference is about split in half. When a vote would take place has to be determined. President Rockefeller reportedly asked Speaker Rhodes not to take a vote too soon to give the administration some time to lobby for the bill behind the scenes. The vice president is again expected to play a major role in this process, as he has strong ties to lawmakers on the Hill from his years as congressman and previous negotiations on the president’s behalf.


Governor Bobby Kennedy urges House to pass healthcare law as other governors follow



Governor Robert F. Kennedy of New York strongly supports healthcare reform

New York Governor Bobby Kennedy, after the senate passed the American Healthcare Act, publically called upon House members to vote for the legislation. "Here we have a balanced and meaningful legislation that expands needed healthcare to millions of Americans. I urge the House to to approve this bill", he said. He also praised the Rockefeller White House for its support: "This is an issue of such significance, that we can only get it done in a bipartisan fashion", he further remarked. Upon RFK's initiative, several other state governors followed the call, such as Jerry Brown (D-CA), Reubin Askew (D-FL) and James Holshouser (R-NC). Kennedy, Brown and Askew are considered presidential candidates for 1980.

Back in April, Robert Kennedy officially kicked off his reelection campaign for governor of the Empire State. He is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the September primary and also supported by the minor Liberal Party of New York. His approval rating is currently at 60% and therefore the former vice president and senator expected to win a second term very easily.


June 30, 1978: New Gallup polls

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 53% ▼
Disapprove: 39% ▲


1978 generic congressional ballot
Republicans: 44% ▼
Democrats: 44% ▼


American Healthcare Act of 1978
✓ Support: 44%
✘ Oppose: 29%
? Don't know: 27%

[President Johnson]

Sweet. Is Hunt still Lieutenant Governor?

Yes, he is

[President Johnson]

July 8, 1978: Circuit Court blocks Rockefeller healthcare executive order for federal contractors



A setback for Rocky: A court ruled against an exective order aimed to expand healthcare

Not a nice birthday present for Nelson Rockefeller: On his 70th birthday, a federal circuit court blocked a February executive order, that required all federal contractors with more than 100 employees to offer a healthcare plan for their employees. After a lower court confirmed the decree, the circuit court agreed to a handful of business owners, the initiators of the lawsuit, who felt setting these rules was not within the president?s authority.

The ruling is a defeat for the administration, but the Brooke Justice Department commented that it would take the matter to the Supreme Court.


Late July 1978: Rockefeller Administration to launch new attempt to settle Cyprus conflict



Cyprus: An unsolved dispute on the international stage the Rockefeller Administration hopes to settle

Since 1974, when Turkey occupied the northern part of Cyprus as a consequence of Greek nationalists attempting to make the independent island a part of Greece, tensions between Turkey and the United States arose. Following the Turkish military occupation, President Nelson Rockefeller issued sanctions on Ankara and reduced military aid to the NATO partner because he (like almost any other country including the USSR) regarded the occupation as illegal. Bilateral talks between the involved nations of the region remained unsuccessful since 1975. During a trip across Europe back in May, President Nelson Rockefeller emphasized to restart diplomatic talks and offered the United States playing a moderating role, similar to the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Egypt. ?We have a strategic interest in the long-term stability in the entire Mediterranean Sea?, the American president remarked during a stop in Athens for political consultations.

In June, Secretary of State Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger issued a memo that the American position is an independent and sovereign Cyprus with the option to become a permanent NATO member in the future. On June 26, President Rockefeller approved the memo and congress also adopted the position by passing a non-binding resolution that received overwhelming support in both houses from Democrats and Republicans alike. Going into July, the State Department begun preparations for negotiations between Cyprus, Turkey and Greece as Deputy Secretary Robert Finch visited each capital of the three countries. On July 23, Richard Nixon officially announced that direct talks were to begin in August in Rome for settlement of the conflict. Finch and Kissinger were put in charge of main talks with Nixon and the president himself overseeing the diplomatic initiative. Outcome: Unknown.

Political pundits mainly praised the initative by the administration and remarked that in a time when options in domestic policy fields are getting limited, the president was shifting focus to foreign affairs to build up his legacy.


July 31, 1978: New Gallup polls

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 52% ▼
Disapprove: 40% ▲


August 4, 1978

BREAKING: House narrowly votes down healthcare law, 211 ? 220!



Stunning but not overall surprising defeat for the administration in the healthcare fight: The House of Representatives voted down the American Healthcare Act of 1978 that narrowly passed by the senate. Administration officials, including the president and vice president, until the very last minute lobbied among lawmakers of both parties to support the bill. The vote count on the floor remained close to the end and even Vice President Ford said the outcome was a pure wildcard. In the end, seven votes to 218 seat majority were missing and the conservative side, whose leading figures in the House and Senate fought tirelessly to defeat the measure. For the moment, they succeeded. The final tally on the floor:

REPUBLICAN: 96 Yea, 122 Nay, 3 NV
DEMOCRATIC: 116 Yea, 98 Nay, 1 NV

Legislation failed, 211 Yea, 220 Nay




President Nelson Rockefeller and Vice President Gerald Ford react to the House vote on August 4, 1978

In a press statement, President Nelson Rockefeller admitted the vote was ?a heavy loss? and he was ?disappointed?. But he added that this was not the last try of his administration to pass a healthcare bill. ?Look?, the president told a reporter, ?with a bold plan, we came extremely close to get this enacted into law. There is a desire in congress to get something done. The people expect us to do our work.? Vice President Gerald Ford took responsibility for the defeat as well, as he was heavily involved in the negotiating process with lawmakers and said he will try harder next time. Political observers remarked the bill may be reintroduced in the next congress in 1979. Whether it would pass then was hardly predictable as the next presidential election would be on the horizon by that time.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad the healthcare reform failed. But I would strongly support the foreign policy of the Rockefeller admin.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd advocate kicking out anyone who opposed the bill in the midterms and replacing them with people more left wing on the issue, especially the Democrats. Pass it in the next congress!

[President Johnson]

August 12 ? 13, 1978: At historic Camp David Summit, Egypt-Israel peace treaty is presented



Prime Minister Menachem Begin and President Anwar Sadat during the historic summit

For two days, President Rockefeller, Prime Minister Begin of Israel and President Sadat of Egypt met at Camp David to work out the final details for a peace treaty for the Middle East. On the American side, all high-ranking foreign and defense officials of the administration were present: Secretary of State Richard Nixon, Defense Secretary Daniel J. Evans, UN Ambassador Bill Scranton and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. On August 13, the three leaders went public and introduced their agreement to the world:

- Both countries end all military hostilities against each other. Disputes will be settled either through the UN or directly, with the United States playing a moderating role.
- Within two years, Israel completely withdraws from the Sinai Peninsula
- Egypt accepts Israel?s right to exist in the pre-1967 borders, the status of the Golan Heights remains unsolved but is part of ongoing discussions. (The Rockefeller Administration favors a demilitarized zone under UN control)
- Israel and Egypt open embassies in their respective countries.
- The West Bank and Gaza Strip will be granted autonomy for ten years to find a permanent solution through the United Nations.
- The United States grants Egypt non-military aid of two billion dollars a year after the treaty formally goes into effect. According to Presidents Rockefeller and Sadat, the resources will mainly go into schools and economic development. Privately, it is reported, that Sadat is concerned the treaty may isolate him from Arab allies, so that Rockefeller and Begin saw the need to make sure Egypt remains in a stable condition.
- Israel and Egypt remove trade barriers for any non-military goods and begin talks over a trade agreement.

Upon presenting the points, President Nelson Rockefeller noted: ?I am very thankful to the prime minister and the president, who have been outstanding partners in this entire process. My thanks also goes to my team and Secretary Nixon in particular for his tireless efforts. I am proud to say that this agreement is one of the most important steps towards a lasting peace in the Middle East. It is and must always be the primary goal of American foreign policy to avoid conflicts and bring people together in their desire for freedom and prosperity.?

Both Begin and Sadat for their part thanked the American president and his administration for the efforts. ?Mr. President, without you, we would not have been able to get to this accord?, Begin remarked.

Both, Israel and Egypt, must still ratify the treaty, but this is considered a formality. President Sadat invited President Rockefeller to visit Egypt earlier next year to talk about the aid package the US side has promised as soon as the treaty is ratified by both sides.


President Rockefeller wants to solve Golan Heights dispute



President Nelson Rockefeller addresses the press during the summit

Originally, the Rockefeller Administration, at the initiative of Richard Nixon, wanted a broader security pact in the region to establish a permanent peace structure and solve all territorial disputes, including the Golan Heights, which are not a part of the border to Egypt. However, the Soviet Union showed little interest to become part of such a pact; mainly because it disapproved strong US military presence in Israel and Rockefeller?s outreach to Egypt with aid. In the end, Nixon?s imitative failed, but the status of the Golan Heights remained unsolved and a source for tensions between Israel and Syria.

Although not officially confirmed at Camp David, insiders report that Prime Minister Begin was open to a buffer zone under UN Control as long was Israel would not give up the piece of land entirely. President Rockefeller, however, has instructed UN Ambassador Scranton to start formal talks in New York for this matter that includes Syria and the USSR.


August 25, 1978: Treasury Secretary Shafer presents balanced budget for next fiscal year



Raymond P. Shafer, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, had some good news on the budget

As the administration?s negotiations with congress for the budget year starting on October 1 are in the final stage, Treasury Secretary Raymond P. Shafer said the federal government is on track for have balanced budget in the coming fiscal year. ?I am proud to present to the American people the first balanced budget since 1970 and report that we eliminated a budget deficit of almost 40 billion dollars when this president took over in 1973?, the secretary said at a press conference. The main reason for this outcome is an economy what grew 4% in the second quarter of 1978 and unemployment at 4.2%. However, economists expect a slower growth rate for the last quarter of 1978 and the first of 1978 with inflation starting to rise again. In addition, the administration elicited some domestic spending by turning over certain programs to the states and slow the growth of military spending after the previous Johnson Administration withdrew from Vietnam following a 1971 peace treaty that is still intact.


August 31, 1978: New Gallup polls

As it seems, the president benefits from the Camp David treaty with Israel and Egypt and the positive news on the budget, as his approval rating went up six points during August. And as things now stand, the Republicans are in good shape for the upcoming midterm election despite control of the White House with a two-term president.


President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 59% ▲
Disapprove: 36% ▼


1978 generic congressional ballot
Republicans: 48% ▲
Democrats: 44% ▬

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Prime Minister Menachem Megin and President Anwar Sadat during the historic summit

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Prime Minister Menachem Megin and President Anwar Sadat during the historic summit

Benachem Megin & Sanwar Adat!

[President Johnson]

Prime Minister Menachem Megin and President Anwar Sadat during the historic summit

LOL, there you got me. The subtext for images is usually the only part I don't write in Word before

[UWS]

It seems that the ratification of the Camp David treaty might be good news for the Republicans for 1980.

[President Johnson]

It seems that the ratification of the Camp David treaty might be good news for the Republicans for 1980.

It's certainly a boost for the upcoming midterms (plus the economy). 1980 is two years out and 1979 will be difficult year on the foreign stage with Iran and Afghanistan.

[President Johnson]

Mid-September 1978: Governor Kennedy accused of having extramarital affair with intern



President Nelson Rockefeller expressed his opinion that the ongoing press speculation over RFK's private life isn't the "gold standard of journalism"

By the end of September and into early October, press speculation over the alleged mistress in the governor’s office continued to be in the news. A September 30 press conference RFK gave ended in turmoil as approximately half of the time was devoted to questions about the issue. Ethel Kennedy, his wife, faced a series of offensive questions from reporters that she declined to answer.

On October 2, the Kennedys received unexpected help: At a press conference of his own, President Nelson Rockefeller used the opportunity to criticize press members. “I have to say that most of these reports on Governor Kennedy’s private life lack the necessary respect for this man’s private life and his family. What we are seeing here is a large amount of misguided speculation”, the president remarked, “while all public officials must be held to high standards, the press must first and foremost focus on political issues that are of the general public's interest. The treatment Governor Kennedy has received so far, by not all, but several reporters is not something that I think is appropriate. As long as there is no proven evidence that Governor Kennedy has done something illegal or deeply unethical, I don’t see how matters like this are of public relevance. What we’ve seen is not the gold standard of journalism.”

Following the president's remarks, congressional leaders from both parties publically agreed with the statement and emphasized that journalists must respect a level of privacy. On his TV show, former California Ronald Reagan, usually a vocal Kennedy critic, expressed similar thoughts. However, Reagan said that RFK's team mishandled their public response rather than being transparent from the beginning on.

[President Johnson]

October 1978: Midterm election campaign gains steam as Republicans grow increasingly optimistic



It used to be one of the less interesting races for governor as RFK was expected to easily win a second term over his Republican challenger, Assemblyman Perry Duryea. But the alleged affair around (now former) intern Martha Snyder led to a dramatic fall of his approval rating: A New York Times poll from mid-October found that 49% of New Yorkers approved his job performance while 43% disapproved. This is down eleven points; a survey from early September had him at 60% approval and only 34% disapproval. Kennedy was still the clear favorite to get reelected, but political observers questioned what impact the affair would have on a rumored second bid for the White House in 1980. Meanwhile, there was still a question whether federal or state prosecutors could look at the matter. Clear at this point was one thing: If RFK decides to jump into the presidential race next year, he wouldn't be guaranteed to win his party's nomination as was expected following his close loss in the 1972 election. The governor still has a devoted base of support among Democratic ranks, but he alienated a substancial part of his party that goes beyond southern conservatives, who never liked him and members of the Kennedy clan. In 1976 already, even several liberal Democrats blamed him for not supporting Edmund Muskie more enthusiastically. Critics of the JFK brother even argue he wanted Muskie to lose for his own political gain and prepare another presidential campaign in 1980.

A late October Gallup poll found that 47% of Americans had a positive view on Bobby Kennedy, while 41% viewed him negative. Only 45% said he was honest and trustworthy following the alleged affair. For comparison: 64% of Americans said in the same poll that President Rockefeller was honest and trustworthy, only 19% said the head of state was not. Asked whether RFK should run for president again, 40% said yes, while 39% answered this question with no. Among Democrats, that number is 63%, but only 27% said they would definitely vote for him the primary.


October 31, 1978: New Gallup polls

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 55% ▼
Disapprove: 40% ▲


1978 generic congressional ballot
Republicans: 48% ▼
Democrats: 44% ▲

[President Johnson]

★★★ United States midterm elections; November 7, 1978 ★★★




On November 7, voters went to the polls to choose 435 new representatives and a third of their senators. The elections took place in addition to several gubernatorial and local elections.


Senate elections



(Incumbents base on the results of the 1972 election in this TL)

Dark red/blue = Democratic/Republican hold
Light red/blue = Democratic/Republican gain
Grey = No senate election in 1978


53 Democrats* (▬); 47 Republicans (▬)
DEMOCRATIC CONTROL

* includes one Independent caucusing with Democrats (Harry F. Bryd Jr. (I-VA))

Democratic gains: KY, MT, NE, OK
Republican gains: ME, MS, NH, SD


Notable races

Alabama
✓ Howell Heflin (D) 94.0%
Jerome Couch (Proh.): 5.0%
Democratic incumbent retired, Democratic hold

Kansas
✓ Nancy Kassebaum (R): 51.9%
William R. Roy (D): 45.8%
Republican incumbent retired, Republican hold

Massachusetts
✓ Paul Tsongas (D, inc.): 49.5%
John Volpe (R): 49.3%
Democratic incumbent reelected (first appointed in 1975, won special election in 1976)

Minnesota (Special)
✓ Orville Freeman (D): 53.0%
Tom Hagedorn (R): 44.6%
Democratic appointee (Muriel Humphrey) retired, Democratic hold

New Jersey
✓ Clifford P. Chase (R, inc.): 52.5%
Bill Brady (D): 43.8%
Republican incumbent reelected

North Carolina
✓ James Holshouser (R): 54.7%
John Ingram (D): 44.2%
Republican incumbent lost renomination, Republican hold


House of Representatives elections



234 Democrats (▲ 19); 201 Republicans (▼ 19)
DEMOCRATIC CONTROL


Congressional leadership will be listed upon the new congress' opening on January 3, 1979.


Notable gubernatorial elections

California
✓ Jerry Brown (D, inc.): 57.5%
Evelle Younger (R): 35.2%

Florida
✓ Bob Graham (D): 56.2%
Bob Eckerd (R): 42.8%

New York
✓ Robert F. Kennedy (D, inc.): 51.1%
Perry Duryea (R): 48.0%


A Status-Quo election

“A status quo election” is how political observers across the country described the results of the midterm elections. In the House, the Democrats – as already expected – regained a majority by picking up 19 seats from the Republicans. This means, Democrats have now 234 seats compared the GOP’s 201. However, the Democrats only won the popular vote by less than one percentage point (49.5% to 48.7%). Minority Leader Tip O’Neill from Massachusetts is expected to succeed Republican Speaker John Jacob Rhodes of Arizona. O'Neill and the President Rockefeller are no strangers to each other and are expected to have a fair working relationship. Back in 1976, Democrats surprisingly lost their house majority they held since 1955 and significantly increased in the 1974 midterm elections. Despite the Democratic gains, their performance was underwhelming for a midterm during a second term presidency. In the senate, there was a different picture: Even though the parties exchanged four seats on each side, the partisan breakdown remains the same as in the previous congress: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans. This was disappointing for the Democrats, as they hoped to expand their majority. Instead, they lost important seats in New England, where President Rockefeller campaigned for fellow Republicans and is very popular.

Another hit for Democrats was the underwhelming performance of their presumed presidential frontrunner Robert F. Kennedy. He won reelection to a second term as governor of New York, but with just little over 51% of the vote, his race was much closer than expected. It was evident that the alleged affair with an intern and payments for her private apartment damaged RFK’s reputation and caused his approval rating in the state to drop by double digits in a matter of months. With an ethics investigation looming by state authorities, a bunch of journalists already begun asking whether he still can be seen as the top-contender for the nomination in 1980. Some remarked that by then, a weakened RFK may be yesterday’s news and the Democrats must look for a new leader to regain the presidency from a man, who has done pretty well in his second term. "Whether it's Ronald Reagan, Mike Hatfield or someone else, I wouldn't rule out a third consectutive Republican win", a New York Times reporter wrote, "nevertheless, in two years, a lot can happen."


President Rockefeller reacts to midterm election results



President Rockefeller talked to the press the morning after the election

On November 8, President Nelson Rockefeller gave a brief statement before the press on the election result.

President Rockefeller: My fellow Americans, members of the press and distinguished guests: Yesterday, it was up to the American people to elect a new Congress, several new governors and other local officials to represent their interests at the respective levels of government. I am proud that once again we have set an example for fair and free elections around the world. Because it is this long tradition, that makes America such a unique place on this earth.
First off, I want to thank all those who ran for public office, expressed their opinions in the public discourse and tried so hard to convince their fellow Americans of their ideas. I congratulate all those who have been elected by the people to represent their constituency. To the new members of Congress and the newly elected governors I extend my hand of friendship and offer you a respectful cooperation with my administration. Vice President Ford and I will soon meet all freshman senators and representatives here at the White House to discuss a broad range of issues. We will also meet congressional leaders, including the designated House speaker, by the end of this week.
To those who have been reelected, I offer each and everyone of you to continue to work together, strengthen our partnership and work for the benefit of all Americans. As we have done over the last six years, I am hopeful and optimistic that, in a bipartisan fashion, the Congress and my administration will work together to find commonsense solutions to tackle the nations most urgent problems and keep the peace around the world. This is what there American people sent us up to do. I am fully committed to contribute my part, and I know each member of congress feels the same way.
Within the next few weeks and then in my State of the Union Address coming January, I look forward to present a more detailed vision for the final two years that I occupy this office. Thank you very much.

[President Johnson]

November 30, 1978: New Gallup poll

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 56% ▲
Disapprove: 40% ▬


December 4, 1978: Richard Nixon confirms to stay on until end of term



William Scranton for president? Don't rule it out, says the UN Ambassador

On December 29, 1978, UN Ambassador William Scranton said he is unlikely to run, but may consider doing so by the end of 1979. Scranton also served as governor of Pennsylvania from 1963 to 1967 and belongs to the moderate wing of the GOP. Before, Treasury Secretary Raymond Shafer mentioned him as a potential candidate with broad experience and ruled out a run for himself. Shafer was lieutenant governor under Scranton and later succeeded him in the governor's chair. Both have close relationship with President Rockefeller.


December 31, 1978: New Gallup polls, including the 1980 primaries

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 54% ▼
Disapprove: 41% ▲


1980 Republican Party presidential nomination

Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 30%
Senator and Minority Leader Mark Hatfield: 15%
Vice President Gerald Ford: 10%
Senator Howard Baker: 6%
Senator Paul Laxalt: 5%
Representative Jack Kemp: 4%
Senator Lowell Weicker: 3%
Senator Bob Dole: 3%
UN Ambassador William Scranton: 3%
Senator John Tower: 3%
Former Commerce Secretary John Connally: 2%
Someone else/undecided: 17%

Reagan vs. Hatfield
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 45%
Senator and Minority Leader Mark Hatfield: 32%

Reagan vs. Ford
Former Governor Ronald Reagan: 43%
Vice President Gerald Ford: 37%


1980 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 18%
Senator Albert Brewer: 14%
Governor Reubin Askew: 9%
Senator Ted Kennedy: 8%
Governor Jerry Brown: 5%
Senator George McGovern: 5%
Senator Frank Church: 3%
Senator Mario Cuomo: 2%
Governor Jere Beasley: 2%
Senator Alan Cranston: 2%
Senator Wendell Ford: 2%
Someone else/undecided: 30%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Damn. With Bobby out, I guess I'll be supporting another Democrat, though definitely not Bentsen. For the Republicans, I'd like Scranton.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad Bobby is out now. Hopefully Church runs, whom I would have preferred anyway.

For the GOP, I'd either like Hatfield or Scranton. Would also be ok with Ford. Maybe he becomes prez soon anyway?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan 1980!!!

[Cold War Liberal]

I'd probably support Cuomo.