Is Trump now the favorite?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's face it, neither one of thee two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

There is no legitimate equivalency between these two candidates. Period.

Both are not good people to elect. The difference is that one is a half-criminal addicted to focus groups who loves wall street, and the second is a bankrupt businessman with no experience and a friendship with Vladimir Putin and David Duke. Neither is the sort of president I want.

There's a lot of truth in this, but one difference is that Clinton is likely to be an effective President, in the sense of being able to work with both parties in Congress, just as Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan were.  As a centrist, the ability to work with both sides is something that I value highly; if it tells you anything, two of my political heroes were Howard Baker and Sam Nunn (both of whom would have made excellent Presidents IMO.)

Unfortunately, the increased polarization of both parties, and especially the intransigence of the GOP, makes consensus and bipartisanship a lot more difficult now than it was back then, but I think Hillary can do about as well in this regard as any current politician could.  In contrast, I don't think Trump could work effectively with either party.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Let's face it, neither one of thee two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

There is no legitimate equivalency between these two candidates. Period.

Both are not good people to elect. The difference is that one is a half-criminal addicted to focus groups who loves wall street, and the second is a bankrupt businessman with no experience and a friendship with Vladimir Putin and David Duke. Neither is the sort of president I want.

There's a lot of truth in this, but one difference is that Clinton is likely to be an effective President, in the sense of being able to work with both parties in Congress, just as Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan were.  As a centrist, the ability to work with both sides is something that I value highly; if it tells you anything, two of my political heroes were Howard Baker and Sam Nunn (both of whom would have made excellent Presidents IMO.)

I have serious doubts about Hillary as President, but let's be honest, I take her every day over Trump... or any other Republican candidate for that matter.

[Sir Mohamed]

No he is not. Sorry, ExtremeRepublican

I just don't see a reliable path to 270 electoral votes. He needs PA, and we're just not there as of now. Even putting his current surge into consideration. On the other hand, he can't afford to lose OH and FL, and these are still very close. He's also still behind (or not ahead) in the nationwide polls.

[Helsinkian]

As long as he's losing Pennsylvania he's also losing the election.

[pikachu]

He's literally led only two national polls since the end of July, and one of them is the LA Times poll. It's clear that the race has tightened, but it's really presumptuous to think he's the favorite now.

[Deblano]

I'd say the election is more 50-50, since Clinton's campaign is extraordinarily incompetent.

[Wells]

No. He is not going to win and never was.

[pho]

Trump still has to survive three real debates with an intellectual superior. How's it going to look when he gets embarrassed by a sick old lady? Bad!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump still has to survive three real debates with an intellectual superior. How's it going to look when he gets embarrassed by a sick old lady? Bad!

But her alt-right speech supposed to destroy him, didn't it?
And her "deplorables" remark should energise her base, shouldn't it?

And now we have to believe that she'll kill him during the debates? OK.

[Suburbia]

No. He's 50-50. He could win if white voters flee the Democratic Party, which is possible.

[Mike Thick]

If the election were held today, I think it would be about 50-50. However, I've recovered from my panickiness, and still expect Clinton to ultimately pull it off.

[Suburbia]

No. He is not going to win and never was.

He wins if there's another race riot,  he wins if Clinton is still unhealthy.

[Buffalo Bill]

No because of the electoral college.  Clinton leading by 4 on Labor Day though was John McCain in 2008 after 8 years of his party being in the White House. 

[Yank2133]

lol.....no.

[Lachi]

PA was closer than MI/WI in 2008 and 2012, and Trump did much better in PA during the primary than he did in WI/MI. If he wins MI or WI, he has already won PA.

Primary results/turnout do not belong in a conversation about general election prospects.

[nm825]

Obviously not, but I still like his chances better than Romney '12 though.

[KingSweden]

No, but his odds have gone up this week

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

If the elections were today, I'd be very, very worried about the presidency and even more worried about the Senate.  (This is the first time I've ever felt that way.)  I don't expect things to go unchanged between now and November, though.

[Suburbia]

Like I said before, it's 50-50 now. Clinton has not ran a good campaign as of late. The hard left cannot blame Tim Kaine, because he is a safe, reliable white male Democrat. Elizabeth Warren would not have helped either. She would have been seen by swing voters as a screeching liberal.

Clinton's pneumonia on Sept. 11, 2016, has made things a little bit worse for her campaign and the Democrats efforts at taking back the Senate and the House. Kaine can only do so much. What could Warren or Labor Secretary Tom Perez have done? Heck, if Clinton had picked Perez, the GOP would have destroyed him. A unknown Latino bureaucrat from Maryland? He'd be smeared like Debo Adegible, who was supposed to be confirmed by the then-Democratic-controlled Senate for Assistant AG for Civil Rights.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debo_Adegbile

Clinton will have to perform well at the Sept. 26 debate. If she loses the debate to a reality TV show star, the DNC will be spinning in chaos the next morning.

[Buffalo Bill]

No, but his odds have gone up this week

And you've got to consider the Electoral College.  His leads in NV, FL, OH, and ME get him to 260.  Colorado would put him over the edge.

[Fuzzy Bear]

No, but his odds have gone up this week

And you've got to consider the Electoral College.  His leads in NV, FL, OH, and ME get him to 260.  Colorado would put him over the edge.

This is the best Trump can do on his very best day.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

No.  He's a massive underdog right now, as he's been throughout the entire season.  HRC will win easily and Dems who are freaking about based on a couple of polls won't even remember this, just like nobody remembers the freakouts in 2012 or 2008.

[ursulahx]

Here's the thing: there are still nearly eight weeks to go. It's easy for liberal or centrist voters who are unsure about Clinton to tell pollsters they're not going to vote for her, perhaps because of a reaction to Phlegm-gazi or Deplorables. As the election nears, and they realise what a big deal this is, they're going to be faced with the stark question, "you gonna vote for Trump?"

Some of them may say, "yeah, give him a chance". But most of them will say, "hell, no." If, at that stage, it looks like Clinton has a clear lead, these people may stay home. But if it looks like Trump has a chance, expect them to head to the ballot box (especially when the excellent Clinton GOTV operation will be reminding them to).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some of them may say, "yeah, give him a chance". But most of them will say, "hell, no." If, at that stage, it looks like Clinton has a clear lead, these people may stay home. But if it looks like Trump has a chance, expect them to head to the ballot box (especially when the excellent Clinton GOTV operation will be reminding them to).

Yeah, yeah, sure... excellent GOTV, ground game, outperforming in ads.

But it is... subject iv. Especially, when the candidate doesn't seems so enthusiastic to his/her voters...

The best GOTV "operation" so far was "deplorables"

[Kingpoleon]

No. Even if he wins all the states where he has a >30% chance of winning on 538 polls-only, he only gets to 264 (counting ME-2). He still needs to pull off PA, and so far he's not doing it. As I've said more times than I care to know, the winner of PA will win the election. Period. It's just the way things are. Neither candidate can win without it.

264 EVs+one of the states in green