OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5
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  OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5
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Author Topic: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5  (Read 4916 times)
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2016, 06:05:15 AM »

This was taken smack dab in the middle of the health scare, still...put it in the aggregate and wait for more polls.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2016, 06:12:59 AM »

This is very very different than the last Ohio poll.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2016, 06:20:12 AM »

This poll was enough to push the RCP average for OH over to tilt Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2016, 06:26:20 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.
This junk is needed to be unskewed!
No unskewing, just a critique on the poll.
It is. You are Shy Unskewer Smiley

You didn't criticise methodology (controlled by pollster), you criticized the results ("controlled" by voters).
When people switch between candidate, they likely switch their selfreported party identification as well. It is not strange at all. It'd be strange, if they didn't.

But yeah, the natural noise in this poll is probably Trump-friendly.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2016, 06:29:44 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.
This junk is needed to be unskewed!
No unskewing, just a critique on the poll.
It is. You are Shy Unskewer Smiley

You didn't criticise methodology (controlled by pollster), you criticized the results ("controlled" by voters).
When people switch between candidate, they likely switch their selfreported party identification as well. It is not strange at all. It'd be strange, if they didn't.

But yeah, the natural noise in this poll is probably Trump-friendly.
I was critiquing what method they are using for the LV screen.  But again keep posting the sh**t that you spew all each and every day.  It really makes you look great.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2016, 06:33:58 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.
This junk is needed to be unskewed!
No unskewing, just a critique on the poll.
It is. You are Shy Unskewer Smiley

You didn't criticise methodology (controlled by pollster), you criticized the results ("controlled" by voters).
When people switch between candidate, they likely switch their selfreported party identification as well. It is not strange at all. It'd be strange, if they didn't.

But yeah, the natural noise in this poll is probably Trump-friendly.
I was critiquing what method they are using for the LV screen.  But again keep posting the sh**t that you spew all each and every day.  It really makes you look great.
What's wrong with their method? Results, I guess? Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2016, 06:35:03 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.
This junk is needed to be unskewed!
No unskewing, just a critique on the poll.
It is. You are Shy Unskewer Smiley

You didn't criticise methodology (controlled by pollster), you criticized the results ("controlled" by voters).
When people switch between candidate, they likely switch their selfreported party identification as well. It is not strange at all. It'd be strange, if they didn't.

But yeah, the natural noise in this poll is probably Trump-friendly.
I was critiquing what method they are using for the LV screen.  But again keep posting the sh**t that you spew all each and every day.  It really makes you look great.

Yeah, its not a Likely Voter screen, it's more of a Defiantly Voter screen. But oh well.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2016, 06:37:12 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.
This junk is needed to be unskewed!
No unskewing, just a critique on the poll.
It is. You are Shy Unskewer Smiley

You didn't criticise methodology (controlled by pollster), you criticized the results ("controlled" by voters).
When people switch between candidate, they likely switch their selfreported party identification as well. It is not strange at all. It'd be strange, if they didn't.

But yeah, the natural noise in this poll is probably Trump-friendly.
I was critiquing what method they are using for the LV screen.  But again keep posting the sh**t that you spew all each and every day.  It really makes you look great.
What's wrong with their method? Results, I guess? Smiley
When you have a party id that is more or less as republican as 2004,  your going to have problems.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2016, 06:39:00 AM »

OK, I give up. Selzer is junk. Red hacks here are experts.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2016, 06:40:09 AM »

OK, I give up. Selzer is junk. Red hacks here are experts.
Only hack I see is you. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: September 14, 2016, 06:42:36 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 06:44:55 AM by Da-Jon »

OK, I give up. Selzer is junk. Red hacks here are experts.

You Gov liberal pollster also has Clinton leading TRUMP.

The variables are similar to 2014, half are satisfied and have are discontent. If this is an angry electorate like 2014, Trump has a chance because young people won't vote.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2016, 06:48:25 AM »

Can we not call each other hacks and talk about the poll?
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Buzz
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« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2016, 06:56:45 AM »

Fantastic Poll!!!
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2016, 07:01:49 AM »

Great poll for Trump.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #39 on: September 14, 2016, 07:05:27 AM »

Ok, love the 43R to 36D breakdown in party id numbers in the poll.  Really makes it seem valid.

Sure, why not? Tongue

Ohio Primary Results 2008
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/OH.html
Democratic Party: Total 2.22 Million votes
Republican Party: Total 1.06 Million votes

Ohio Primary Results 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio
Democratic Party: Total 1.20 Million votes
Republican Party: Total 2.04 Million votes

Red Avatars even complain at 'Bloomberg' Poll (pro-hillary media) lol



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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2016, 07:11:40 AM »

Oh god, StatesPoll is back? Maybe I should I just put everyone on ignore so I dont have to see people quote him or LittleBigOctopus.
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Person Man
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« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2016, 07:31:03 AM »

The long term significance of this could be, if replicated by others, that Ohio is finally moving to Lean R and that Democrats will be pushed to continue to diversify the map.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2016, 07:51:45 AM »

Pretty good take on recent polling in Ohio
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2016, 07:56:28 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 08:02:00 AM by Fusionmunster »

Yeah, the CBS/YouGov Ohio poll was definitely junk.

Or is this junk?

Edit: typing in a moving car is hard.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2016, 07:57:27 AM »

Yeah, the CBS/YouGov Ohio poll was definitely junk.

How do we know this isn't junk too? This seems to be equally bad in the other direction.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2016, 07:59:15 AM »


I think the QU poll was probably the most accurate.


This was taken smack dab in the middle of pneumonia-gate so i wouldnt be surprised if democrat enthusiasm is super low right now.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2016, 08:11:01 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 08:14:10 AM by StatesPoll »

Meanwhile, Liberal's hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted this poll as TRUMP +6%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

Red Avatars:  "TRUMP +5% in Ohio? meothdology is bad. too many republicans in this poll, blah blah."
Liberal's Hero 'Nate Silver':   "I adjusted this poll as TRUMP +6%...."
Red Avatars:  "Nate Silver=Trash!!!!"

Ohio Primary Results 2016:  http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio
Republican Party: Total 2.04 Million votes > Democratic Party: Total 1.20 Million votes

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2016, 08:14:49 AM »

None of us think Nate Silver is a hero. Get back in your basket.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2016, 08:17:29 AM »

None of us think Nate Silver is a hero. Get back in your basket.

I think that's where he keeps his strawmen
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2016, 08:20:31 AM »

Nate Silver became a right-wing sellout the second he got money. Great moral compass he's got. #MuhTaxes
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