TX - Emerson College: Trump +6 (4 way)

[Lachi]

This will be the shocker of evening, Clinton winning TX and Dems winning FL and dethroning Rubio.

That would be awesome to see.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fools gold or not, its pathetic that two Texas polls show Trump in mid-single digits this late in the game

[Gustaf]

I wonder if this is dissatisfaction with the nominees on both sides driving people to defect in states they deem safe but hang on in battleground states.

[NOVA Green]

There is a large disaffected Conservative population that has yet to warm to Trump as myself. Intense state pride like nowhere else, and the strong country culture that makes the state Republican. Yea, I really don't see competitiveness.

I don't believe anyone is promoting the argument that Texas is competitive this election cycle, but it is definitely remarkable that it is potentially much closer than anyone might have thought.

Having lived in Texas for awhile, I do get the concept of "Texas Exceptionalism", but Texas is actually not really a "country state", considering that 80% of the population lives in basically six different huge Metro areas, and as an extremely fast growing state, not only do Republicans face a potential Latino problem if they don't change their attitudes (Circa California early 1990s), but additionally there are many migrants from all over the country relocating to work in the booming job markets of DFW, SA, Austin, and even to some extent Houston (Although there is always more of a boom-bust dynamic in Houston compared to other major cities in the state).

As I stated upthread, if Harris County moves from being a marginal Dem to a +10-15% margins, Fort Bend flips, and Montgomery County goes from an 80-20 Republican county to a 60-40 county, combined with similar movements in the suburbs/exurbs of DFW, then this state will start to become close.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if this is dissatisfaction with the nominees on both sides driving people to defect in states they deem safe but hang on in battleground states.

There's definitely something to this line of logic.... although one might expect to see that phenomenon materialize in the West Coast and in places like Kentucky and Tennessee which we haven't really seen.

I recall 538 having an article a month or two back of a similar nature, although I believe it was a bit more generic and was more focused on a decreased level of polarization in the Post-Obama era and shifts in the electoral coalitions. Could be mistaken in my recollection of their analysis on that one.

[DC Al Fine]

this is what makes this election so weird - why are National polls so narrow, some of the swing states so narrow, when normally Republican states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona are also within single digits.

And why is Clinton struggling in blue states like Maine?

Personally, I'm hoping for a strange and interesting election night, so I'm all for it.

Not sure about Clinton, but Trump seems fairly easy to explain. He's struggling with affluent conservative suburbanites who would have overwhelmingly voted for Romney and McCain, and doing better among white, working class types who like his brashness.