FL-JMC Analytics: Trump +4

[SirMuxALot]

Any poll that shows Hispanics tied or even close is Trash. Period.

Are you sure?

It might be worth remembering Bush in '04 won FL Hispanics 56-44.

[SirMuxALot]

GWB never called them rapists and criminals

Sure, but I wonder to what degree FL Hispanics (which is dominated by Caribbean origin Hispanics) identify with Mexican illegal immigrants.  I just don't know.

Not defending Trump's stupid comments, but is it possible the damage is mitigated by the nature of Florida's Latino makeup?  Only 15% of FL Hispanics are Mexican origin.

[SirMuxALot]

Trust me. Puerto Ricans are a big part of the FL Hispanic population, and we hate him just as much.

Do we know how Puerto Ricans have voted in the past in FL?  I haven't found that level of detail in any exit poll.

[SirMuxALot]

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.