Georgia 1992 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:32:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Georgia 1992 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Georgia 1992  (Read 8686 times)
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« on: March 15, 2017, 09:12:44 AM »

If Georgia didn't go straight to Bill Clinton at 7 PM, Georgia would've been the only one too close to call by 3 AM, Clinton would have to wait a week or two to win the Peach State.

A total of 300 EVs went to Bill Clinton as soon as the polls closed in 1992, and in 1996, a total of 350 EVs went to Bill Clinton as soon as the polls closed in those states.

In 1992, Bill Clinton carried my home state of NJ by a margin of just 2.37%! (In 1988, Bush won it by 14 points, and is the only state excluded from the Dukakis strategy to not cast a single vote for a Republican since the 1980s.)

Maine was excluded from the Dukakis strategy too. So were NM, NH, VA, CO, and NV!

This is also the only election where Vermont and Georgia both voted Democrat in the same election (if you don't include the elections before the founding of the Republican party). Vermont never went Democrat until 1964, Georgia never went Republican until 1964. Both states voted Republican in 1972, 1984, and 1988.

It's important to note that Vermont voted straight Whig before the Republican Party even existed. Why was it Republican for so long?

The question is "why is it so Democratic now?"
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2017, 08:55:26 AM »

If Georgia didn't go straight to Bill Clinton at 7 PM, Georgia would've been the only one too close to call by 3 AM, Clinton would have to wait a week or two to win the Peach State.

A total of 300 EVs went to Bill Clinton as soon as the polls closed in 1992, and in 1996, a total of 350 EVs went to Bill Clinton as soon as the polls closed in those states.

In 1992, Bill Clinton carried my home state of NJ by a margin of just 2.37%! (In 1988, Bush won it by 14 points, and is the only state excluded from the Dukakis strategy to not cast a single vote for a Republican since the 1980s.)

Maine was excluded from the Dukakis strategy too. So were NM, NH, VA, CO, and NV!

This is also the only election where Vermont and Georgia both voted Democrat in the same election (if you don't include the elections before the founding of the Republican party). Vermont never went Democrat until 1964, Georgia never went Republican until 1964. Both states voted Republican in 1972, 1984, and 1988.

Wait a minute, Delaware was also excluded from the Dukakis strategy, and it hasn't gone Republican since 1988. Surprise, right?

If I was Bush in 1992 or Dole in 1996, I wouldn't even set up a winning ceremony.
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2017, 09:44:50 AM »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 04:11:08 PM by Plankton5165 »

CBS's list of battleground states in 2016:

Georgia - 5.1%
Virginia - 5.3%
North Carolina - 3.7%
Ohio - 8.1%
New Hampshire - 0.3%
Pennsylvania - 0.7%
Florida - 1.2%
Arizona - 3.6%
Colorado - 4.9%
Wisconsin - 0.8%
Michigan - 0.2% (went from the bottom of the close state list in 2012 to the top in 2016)
Iowa - 9.4%
Nevada - 2.4%

Minnesota isn't even on there... It was a 1.5% state, Maine was a 3% state.

Also, news networks prematurely called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama in 2012. If they didn't, Romney probably would've won it. (sure, by about the same margin as in North Carolina)

NBC's staff said "they need to win Pennsylvania, the election is over if the Democrats lose Pennsylvania." If Obama lost Pennsylvania, he still would've won (312 to 226).
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2017, 04:27:03 PM »

Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).

The Georgia senate race was too close to call.
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2017, 08:05:57 PM »

I'm surprised Delaware was too close to call in 1992.
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2017, 08:13:14 PM »

The polls were way off both in 1992 and 1996 in Clinton's favor.  In 1992, the October polls had Clinton up by 10-15%, him only winning by 5.5% was a surprise and underachievement. In 1996, Clinton was up 15%-20% in the polls leading up the election and only won by 9%. The media was expecting a big Clinton blowout both times, in the mold of Reagan 84 or Eisenhower 52/56. These terrible polls had a partial effect in the media calling those states early for Clinton.

In 1996, only four states that were undecided went to Clinton later on: Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, and Arizona. (Louisiana would go for Clinton by DOUBLE DIGITS!)
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2017, 01:13:44 PM »

Maybe the networks started being more cautious after Georgia 1992, and even more cautious after Florida 2000. Since 1976, every time Georgia was undecided, it went Republican. In 2004, Georgia went Republican on poll closing time. They didn't call states at poll closing time until 1980.

Anyway, in Georgia in 1996, NBC said Dole was 1 point ahead all night. But in 2016, Trump started off with an immense 50+ point lead before collapsing to a 5 point lead. They projected the state when Trump's lead was much smaller. That isn't what they did in 2012 with Pennsylvania. When Fox News projected the state would go to Obama, he was leading by 33 points with 7% of the vote in, this was ultimately a 5 point lead.

Dole won Georgia with 47% of the vote, so Clinton must've refused the runoff. Is that correct?

If Clinton won Georgia in a runoff, that would give him 32+DC again, he would have 392 electoral votes. Without Georgia, he already had 379, which was enough for him to win.

These people sure like to give Florida's 25 to the Democrats. It went blue once and red twice. In 1992, some news networks incorrectly projected Clinton the winner, and in 2000, it's obvious, Gore was incorrectly projected the winner. In 1996, when it went blue, the state was the first state Clinton won on election night.

I assume the huge shift in New Hampshire was due to the projections from news networks. This is another state they like to give to the Democrats. In 1992, it was projected at poll closing time, it was won by 1.1%. In 1996, they falsely projected at poll closing time Dick Swett would defeat Bob Smith.
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2017, 10:21:56 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2017, 10:28:36 PM by Plankton5165 »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they also used to call states before their polls even closed?
Maybe. Not since 2004 however. Only one certain case--the state of Florida for Al Gore in 2000.

They handed Michigan's 18 electoral votes to the Democrats at 8:00 three times.

In 1988, they projected a very close state for Dukakis at poll closing time, it was New York.
Logged
Plankton5165
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


P
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2018, 08:00:35 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2018, 09:16:42 AM by Plankton5165 »

Here is what happened:

In the 1996 NH senate race, The Union Leader said the exit polls had a measly 5% chance of being off by 3%, there were three polls that had Swett ahead by about 5%. (Smith however won.)

In 1992 in Georgia, Clinton was ahead in a poll by 6 points.

Had this persisted in 2016, Wisconsin would've been called for Hillary Clinton at poll closing time, even though Trump ultimately carried the state.

Alabama in 2016 was undecided, Trump won that state by... TWENTY-EIGHT points.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 12 queries.