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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Georgia 1992
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Author Topic: Georgia 1992  (Read 6630 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #25 on: April 20, 2017, 10:49:28 pm »
« edited: April 20, 2017, 10:51:13 pm by Bacon! 🔥 »

Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).

The Georgia senate race was too close to call.

Georgia has a law that requires the winner of a GE race (including Presidential electors) to achieve 50% to avoid a runoff.  Georgia was projected for Clinton early, but taken off the board later on after reporters learned that there was a runoff  (Fowler was close to 50%, but Clinton won Georgia with 43% as Bush refused a runoff.) 

Georgia has never had any such law applying to presidential elections.

Fun fact: when Georgia originally adopted its runoff law, it actually did apply to Presidential elections! This remained the case until the law was changed in March of 1968 to exempt them from the runoff requirement (otherwise a runoff would have been required after that year's election. This wasn't a coincidence - Wallace supporters in the General Assembly were expecting a win and didn't want a runoff to jeopardize it)
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Barnes
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« Reply #26 on: April 20, 2017, 11:05:07 pm »

Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).

The Georgia senate race was too close to call.

Georgia has a law that requires the winner of a GE race (including Presidential electors) to achieve 50% to avoid a runoff.  Georgia was projected for Clinton early, but taken off the board later on after reporters learned that there was a runoff  (Fowler was close to 50%, but Clinton won Georgia with 43% as Bush refused a runoff.) 

Georgia has never had any such law applying to presidential elections.

Fun fact: when Georgia originally adopted its runoff law, it actually did apply to Presidential elections! This remained the case until the law was changed in March of 1968 to exempt them from the runoff requirement (otherwise a runoff would have been required after that year's election. This wasn't a coincidence - Wallace supporters in the General Assembly were expecting a win and didn't want a runoff to jeopardize it)

Now that is news to me! Do you know the year that runoffs were extended to the general election? For primaries it dates back to 1915 but of course they were also using County Unit until 1963; and the 1966 governor's race had to be decided by the General Assembly not through a runoff.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #27 on: April 20, 2017, 11:18:17 pm »

I've found the 1968 law in question and it appears the original act which is amended took effect in 1965 meaning the runoff provision was never actually applicable to a presidential race. But what a fascinating tidbit of history.

http://metis.galib.uga.edu/ssp/cgi-bin/legis-idx.pl?sessionid=4948683c-01c50f8e43-0428&type=law&byte=295414869

As to the 1992 point, again, there was no possibility of a runoff for presidential electors.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #28 on: June 15, 2018, 08:00:35 pm »
« Edited: July 10, 2018, 09:16:42 am by Plankton5165 »

Here is what happened:

In the 1996 NH senate race, The Union Leader said the exit polls had a measly 5% chance of being off by 3%, there were three polls that had Swett ahead by about 5%. (Smith however won.)

In 1992 in Georgia, Clinton was ahead in a poll by 6 points.

Had this persisted in 2016, Wisconsin would've been called for Hillary Clinton at poll closing time, even though Trump ultimately carried the state.

Alabama in 2016 was undecided, Trump won that state by... TWENTY-EIGHT points.
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twenty42
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« Reply #29 on: June 18, 2018, 10:44:12 am »

CBS's list of battleground states in 2016:

Georgia - 5.1%
Virginia - 5.3%
North Carolina - 3.7%
Ohio - 8.1%
New Hampshire - 0.3%
Pennsylvania - 0.7%
Florida - 1.2%
Arizona - 3.6%
Colorado - 4.9%
Wisconsin - 0.8%
Michigan - 0.2% (went from the bottom of the close state list in 2012 to the top in 2016)
Iowa - 9.4%
Nevada - 2.4%

Minnesota isn't even on there... It was a 1.5% state, Maine was a 3% state.

Also, news networks prematurely called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama in 2012. If they didn't, Romney probably would've won it. (sure, by about the same margin as in North Carolina)

NBC's staff said "they need to win Pennsylvania, the election is over if the Democrats lose Pennsylvania." If Obama lost Pennsylvania, he still would've won (312 to 226).

This was more theoretical than mathematical. PA had consistently been polling a couple points to the left of the nation prior to the election, so a Romney win in PA would have indicated that he was winning the NPV by 3-4 points.
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