Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)

[cinyc]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

[cinyc]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

[cinyc]

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.

[cinyc]

I found these on Scribd.com:

Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.

You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.

The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it. 

Scribd is a public website.  It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there.  And people were looking for a source for these polls.

[cinyc]

The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it. 

Scribd is a public website.  It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there.  And people were looking for a source for these polls.

As I stated before, it's not really about the scibd links so much as the guy's name. If you think that guy = amdcpus (??), why would you post it telling everyone? Why not respect the guy's privacy?

I don't think the guy is amdcpus.  amdcpus had the ABC News poll early, too, because of a Washington Post screw-up.

The guy's name is relevant because anyone can post to scribd.  All scribd posts are associated with an account.  If it is some pollster or media member's account, it is more likely that the poll isn't made up.  Thus, it is relevant information - and nothing that someone who didn't click on the scribd link couldn't find out.

[cinyc]

Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.

Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish.  So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.