Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) (Read 8506 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,540
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #75 on:
September 11, 2016, 04:01:51 AM »
Does Marist usually publish a poll on Saturday night?
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Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,035
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #76 on:
September 11, 2016, 04:06:00 AM »
Quote from: Representative dfwlibertylover on September 11, 2016, 03:34:45 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 11, 2016, 01:33:50 AM
Alright, these polls are real, but still incredibly sketchy. Yes, they're data points and should be added, but I'll be stunned if these four states are anywhere near each other. NV/NH should be substantially more Democratic than AZ/GA.
2016 has been a very...abnormal? year
Remember when everyone was preparing for a Bush vs. Clinton snoozefest?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,974
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #77 on:
September 11, 2016, 04:07:26 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 04:01:51 AM
Does Marist usually publish a poll on Saturday night?
No, but I guess they do on Sunday.
Also notice that the guy from MSNBC (if this account is real) posted it yesterday, because he probably thought that nobody would find it anyway ...
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #78 on:
September 11, 2016, 04:53:17 AM »
If true,
TN volunteer
, delete your account immediately!
Don't forget, that Marist also had D+2 house effect.
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Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #79 on:
September 11, 2016, 06:04:57 AM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 06:35:34 AM
by
Fusionmunster »
I guess these are the head to heads.
Among registered voters:
AZ: HRC 41, Trump 40
GA: Trump 44, HRC 44
NV: HRC 46, Trump 41
NH: HRC 40, Trump 40
Among Likely Voters:
AZ: Trump 42, HRC 41
GA: Trump 46, HRC 43
NV: HRC 45, Trump 44
NH: HRC 42, Trump 41
https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Edit: Oh, these might just be head to heads.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
Posts: 50,363
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #80 on:
September 11, 2016, 06:18:38 AM »
Good news are the presidential numbers but I highly doubt the Senate numbers.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,306
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #81 on:
September 11, 2016, 06:28:57 AM »
We're a week past Labor Day and Johnson is still in the 8-17% range in all of these states. Just saying.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #82 on:
September 11, 2016, 06:30:09 AM »
So it is true
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216
2-way:
4-way, LV:
Arizona T+2
Georgia T+2
Nevada T+1
New Hampshire C+2
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #83 on:
September 11, 2016, 06:40:55 AM »
Pretty good numbers for Trump, if you take Marist D +2.0 house effect (according to 538) into account
According to 538 before Marist polls,
Polling average/Adjusted polling average
:
AR: T+1.5/T+2.8
GA: T+2.6/T+3.6
NE: C+1.5/C+0.9
NH: C+6.3/T+5.7
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,867
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #84 on:
September 11, 2016, 08:29:38 AM »
Quote from: Ljube on September 11, 2016, 12:18:46 AM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 AM
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout.
If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.
LOL. First you use the poll to make that argument, then you ignore the poll. Good job
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,974
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #85 on:
September 11, 2016, 08:39:13 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 11, 2016, 08:25:19 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 01:04:20 AM
If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
I added them, but since Stein isn't on the ballot in NV, I added the 2-way numbers to the database. So NV stays red... for now.
Thx for adding them, but I don't agree with your reasoning.
You are now ignoring 2 candidates, not just 1. Johnson is getting double-digits in NV, so this poll should have been added. Just leave away the Stein percentage.
PS: I find it funny that pollsters have no clue which candidates are on the ballot in some states ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,974
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #86 on:
September 11, 2016, 08:43:51 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 11, 2016, 08:42:16 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 08:39:13 AM
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 11, 2016, 08:25:19 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 01:04:20 AM
If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
I added them, but since Stein isn't on the ballot in NV, I added the 2-way numbers to the database. So NV stays red... for now.
Thx for adding them, but I don't agree with your reasoning.
You are now ignoring 2 candidates, not just 1. Johnson is getting double-digits in NV, so this poll should have been added. Just leave away the Stein percentage.
PS: I find it funny that pollsters have no clue which candidates are on the ballot in some states ...
Okay, so should the Stein voters count as "undecided" then?
Nope, just leave her out.
Add Clinton, Trump, Johnson, Undecided.
Doesn't matter if it's not adding up to 100%.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,867
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #87 on:
September 11, 2016, 08:59:12 AM »
Yep, NV is still close.
News at 11.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,624
Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #88 on:
September 11, 2016, 09:44:54 AM »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM
I found these on Scribd.com:
Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.
You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #89 on:
September 11, 2016, 09:48:33 AM »
Quote from: Virginia on September 11, 2016, 09:44:54 AM
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM
I found these on Scribd.com:
Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.
You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.
NBC
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-regrets-calling-half-trump-supporters-basket-deplorables-n646126
has those links as well...
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,624
Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #90 on:
September 11, 2016, 09:59:29 AM »
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 11, 2016, 09:48:33 AM
NBC
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-regrets-calling-half-trump-supporters-basket-deplorables-n646126
has those links as well...
It's not necessarily about those links but the person's name and association to this stuff+forum. I thought I was pretty clear on that?
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cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #91 on:
September 11, 2016, 11:46:01 AM »
Quote from: Virginia on September 11, 2016, 09:44:54 AM
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM
I found these on Scribd.com:
Let's just assume that you are right here - Why would you post this? What purpose does it serve to out him? What if he gets in trouble? What purpose did it serve to put him through that trouble? You don't need to post links or names to verify it.
You & users quoting you should delete your posts on this.
The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it.
Scribd is a public website. It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there. And people were looking for a source for these polls.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,624
Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #92 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:34:24 PM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 12:41:15 PM
by
Virginia »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 11:46:01 AM
The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it.
Scribd is a public website. It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there. And people were looking for a source for these polls.
As I stated before, it's not really about the scibd links so much as the guy's name. If you think that guy = amdcpus (??), why would you post it telling everyone? Why not respect the guy's privacy? Unless he publicly states/allows it, it's no one's business to go posting user's names here.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #93 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:39:36 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on September 11, 2016, 12:34:24 PM
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 11:46:01 AM
The source link was already out on other websites, including RRHelections, before I posted it.
Scribd is a public website. It's newsworthy if someone with connections to a pollster or news organization publicly posts polls there. And people were looking for a source for these polls.
As I stated before, it's not really about the scibd links so much as the guy's name. If you think that guy = amdcpus (??), why would you post it telling everyone? Why not respect the guy's privacy?
I don't think the guy is amdcpus. amdcpus had the ABC News poll early, too, because of a Washington Post screw-up.
The guy's name is relevant because anyone can post to scribd. All scribd posts are associated with an account. If it is some pollster or media member's account, it is more likely that the poll isn't made up. Thus, it is relevant information - and nothing that someone who didn't click on the scribd link couldn't find out.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,624
Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #94 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:41:02 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:39:36 PM
I don't think the guy is amdcpus. amdcpus had the ABC News poll early, too, because of a Washington Post screw-up.
The guy's name is relevant because anyone can post to scribd. All scribd posts are associated with an account. If it is some pollster or media member's account, it is more likely that the poll isn't made up. Thus, it is relevant information - and nothing that someone who didn't click on the scribd link couldn't find out.
fair enough
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dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,615
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #95 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:43:33 PM »
As for the polls, NH is an outlier.
The other three are interesting though, and we keep on seeing this very narrow Clinton lead bordering on a tie in NV coupled with a very narrow Trump lead bordering on a tie in AZ. Nevada was 15 points to the left of Arizona in 2012, so what gives here?
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,795
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #96 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:47:52 PM »
First Marist poll of these states so we can't really compare their polling history in any of these states.
However, results look consistent with a Trump +3-4 lead in Arizona looking at other recent pollsters and national numbers. Georgia, Trump +4-5 in Georgia with consolidation of the Republican base and relatively low levels of 3rd party support.
Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.
New Hampshire looks a bit off... it does make intuitive sense that the race has tightened there, mainly because of a dropoff of Clinton supporters to 3rd party candidates, but not buying it being this close.
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KingSweden
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,245
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #97 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:55:42 PM »
NH seems too generous to Trump, AZ and GA seem way to generous to Clinton.
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cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #98 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:58:01 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 11, 2016, 12:47:52 PM
Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.
Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish. So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,795
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #99 on:
September 11, 2016, 01:03:47 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:58:01 PM
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 11, 2016, 12:47:52 PM
Nevada seems consistent with other pollsters, however as we have discussed elsewhere there are likely issues surveying Spanish language Latino voters, so inherent Republican skew.
Marist uses live interviewers and interviews in Spanish. So there should be no issue surveying Spanish language Latino voters.
Thanks for the correction!
So--- is Nevada basically a toss-up or just that undecideds tend to break Democrat?
This is basically the best polling firm to survey Nevada in some time, and I'm completely buying the "non-college white voter theory" for this state in particular yet, so curious what explanations there would be for this result.
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