|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 15, 2020, 05:38:18 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5
Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 7323 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,886
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:24 pm »

You honestly could have copy-pasted a poll from earlier into a text editor and changed the indicated date before uploading. I'll need to see something with a bit more reliability.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,328


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm »
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 pm
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:54 pm »
Quote from: amdcpus on September 10, 2016, 11:39:25 pm

Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.

I see.
Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:08 pm »
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:17 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 11:44:29 pm by Seriously? »
Probably an embargoed copy.

Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2

It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 305
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: September 10, 2016, 11:46:21 pm »
http://m.imgur.com/rsGEIRd,NmTzMej
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,886
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: September 10, 2016, 11:49:53 pm »
^ Okay. That being said someone needs to hyper-analyze the crosstabs for NH and AZ when they are released.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,603
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 pm »
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:33 pm »
Quote from: OneJ_ on September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 pm
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,035


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: September 10, 2016, 11:58:22 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:00:06 am by Doctor Imperialism »
Quote from: OneJ_ on September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 pm
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

RCP is notoriously erratic when it comes to posting polls. People more conspiratorially-minded than I might point out that they're often posted when someone with insider knowledge could make the most money on Predictit, but I digress.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,355
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2016, 11:59:47 pm »
These polls make zero sense.  All of these within 2 to 3 points of each other.  Yeah that don't sound right.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:40 am »
OP is having an affair with Frank Underwood.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 739
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:04:09 am by Mallow »
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 pm
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,328


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 am »
Quote from: Mallow on September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 pm
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 739
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: September 11, 2016, 12:14:41 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:20:31 am by Mallow »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 am
Quote from: Mallow on September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 pm
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am »
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,848
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am »
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:28 am »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

If all 4 are close, Ohio implodes.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,746
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:46 am »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,405
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 am »
Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,886
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: September 11, 2016, 12:36:21 am »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 am
Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.

He's not able or willing to do so.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,328


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:44:09 am by cinyc »
I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,405
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: September 11, 2016, 12:45:46 am »

Then it's probably right.

But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2016, 12:52:45 am »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 12:45:46 am

Then it's probably right.

But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.
You just said what I thought. Didn't want to out the guy. I thank him for the gift though.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,405
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2016, 01:04:20 am »
If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.131 seconds with 15 queries.