Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) (Read 8517 times)
Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,515
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #50 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:41:24 PM »
Quote from: amdcpus on September 10, 2016, 11:36:25 PM
http://m.imgur.com/mMfRFIz
You honestly could have copy-pasted a poll from earlier into a text editor and changed the indicated date before uploading. I'll need to see something with a bit more reliability.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Clinton +2 in Nevada, +1 in NH and Georgia, tied in Arizona in NBC/Marist polls
«
Reply #51 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 PM
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.
Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8
No. The
Cook PVI
for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6. New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2. You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,499
Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #52 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:41:54 PM »
Quote from: amdcpus on September 10, 2016, 11:39:25 PM
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 10, 2016, 11:37:40 PM
That's not a link...
Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.
I see.
Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,993
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #53 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:42:08 PM »
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #54 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:42:17 PM »
«
Edited:
September 10, 2016, 11:44:29 PM
by
Seriously? »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 10, 2016, 11:37:40 PM
That's not a link...
Probably an embargoed copy.
Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2
It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
Posts: 305
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #55 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:46:21 PM »
http://m.imgur.com/rsGEIRd,NmTzMej
Logged
Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,515
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #56 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:49:53 PM »
^ Okay. That being said someone needs to hyper-analyze the crosstabs for NH and AZ when they are released.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
Posts: 4,664
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #57 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 PM »
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #58 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:54:33 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 PM
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,035
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #59 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:58:22 PM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 12:00:06 AM
by
Doctor Imperialism »
Quote from: OneJ_ on September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 PM
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
RCP is notoriously erratic when it comes to posting polls. People more conspiratorially-minded than I might point out that they're often posted when someone with insider knowledge could make the most money on Predictit, but I digress.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
Posts: 4,501
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #60 on:
September 10, 2016, 11:59:47 PM »
These polls make zero sense. All of these within 2 to 3 points of each other. Yeah that don't sound right.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,495
Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #61 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:00:40 AM »
OP is having an affair with Frank Underwood.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: Clinton +2 in Nevada, +1 in NH and Georgia, tied in Arizona in NBC/Marist polls
«
Reply #62 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 AM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 12:04:09 AM
by
Mallow »
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 PM
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 PM
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.
Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8
No. The
Cook PVI
for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6. New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2. You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.
My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Clinton +2 in Nevada, +1 in NH and Georgia, tied in Arizona in NBC/Marist polls
«
Reply #63 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 AM »
Quote from: Mallow on September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 AM
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 PM
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 PM
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.
Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8
No. The
Cook PVI
for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6. New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2. You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.
My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless. That is more possible this cycle than in the past.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: Clinton +2 in Nevada, +1 in NH and Georgia, tied in Arizona in NBC/Marist polls
«
Reply #64 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:14:41 AM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 12:20:31 AM
by
Mallow »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 AM
Quote from: Mallow on September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 AM
Quote from: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 PM
Quote from: Mallow on September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 PM
No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.
Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8
No. The
Cook PVI
for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6. New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2. You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.
My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless. That is more possible this cycle than in the past.
If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,543
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #65 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 AM »
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,229
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #66 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 AM
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout.
If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #67 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:18:28 AM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 AM
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout.
If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
If all 4 are close, Ohio implodes.
Logged
Ljube
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,708
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #68 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:18:46 AM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 AM
If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout.
If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,975
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #69 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 AM »
Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?
Thx.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,515
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #70 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:36:21 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 AM
Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?
Thx.
He's not able or willing to do so.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,531
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #71 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM »
«
Edited:
September 11, 2016, 12:44:09 AM
by
cinyc »
I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs. Somebody by that name
works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn
. So this probably checks out.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,975
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #72 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:45:46 AM »
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM
I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs. Somebody by that name
works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn
. So this probably checks out.
Then it's probably right.
But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #73 on:
September 11, 2016, 12:52:45 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2016, 12:45:46 AM
Quote from: cinyc on September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 AM
I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs. Somebody by that name
works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn
. So this probably checks out.
Then it's probably right.
But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.
You just said what I thought. Didn't want to out the guy. I thank him for the gift though.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,975
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
«
Reply #74 on:
September 11, 2016, 01:04:20 AM »
If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
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