Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)

[Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon]

http://m.imgur.com/mMfRFIz

You honestly could have copy-pasted a poll from earlier into a text editor and changed the indicated date before uploading. I'll need to see something with a bit more reliability.

[cinyc]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That's not a link...

Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.

I see.

[Ebsy]

I guess we'll see tomorrow.

[Seriously?]

That's not a link...

Probably an embargoed copy.

Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2

It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.

[amdcpus]

http://m.imgur.com/rsGEIRd,NmTzMej

[Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon]

^ Okay. That being said someone needs to hyper-analyze the crosstabs for NH and AZ when they are released.

[OneJ]

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

[Seriously?]

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.

[Lean Branson]

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

RCP is notoriously erratic when it comes to posting polls. People more conspiratorially-minded than I might point out that they're often posted when someone with insider knowledge could make the most money on Predictit, but I digress.

[JerryArkansas]

These polls make zero sense.  All of these within 2 to 3 points of each other.  Yeah that don't sound right.

[Devout Centrist]

OP is having an affair with Frank Underwood.

[Mallow]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

[cinyc]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

[Mallow]

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.

[pbrower2a]

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

[Fusionmunster]

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

If all 4 are close, Ohio implodes.

[Ljube]

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.

[Tender Branson]

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.

[Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon]

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.

He's not able or willing to do so.

[cinyc]

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.

[Tender Branson]

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.

Then it's probably right.

But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.

[Seriously?]

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.

Then it's probably right.

But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.

You just said what I thought. Didn't want to out the guy. I thank him for the gift though.

[Tender Branson]

If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).