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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)
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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 7462 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #50 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:24 pm »


You honestly could have copy-pasted a poll from earlier into a text editor and changed the indicated date before uploading. I'll need to see something with a bit more reliability.
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cinyc
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« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:32 pm »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2016, 11:41:54 pm »


Sorry, but that's the most I'll show you. You can verify for yourself when they release.

I see.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #53 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:08 pm »

I guess we'll see tomorrow.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #54 on: September 10, 2016, 11:42:17 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 11:44:29 pm by Seriously? »

Probably an embargoed copy.

Mirrors the sample shown here for the RV polls on 8/15 to some extent, but that poll was LV: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160803/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202016.pdf#page=2

It would take a lot of work to cut and paste things and additional LV language to just show that page for Georgia.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #55 on: September 10, 2016, 11:46:21 pm »

http://m.imgur.com/rsGEIRd,NmTzMej
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #56 on: September 10, 2016, 11:49:53 pm »

^ Okay. That being said someone needs to hyper-analyze the crosstabs for NH and AZ when they are released.
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OneJ
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« Reply #57 on: September 10, 2016, 11:50:45 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
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Seriously?
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« Reply #58 on: September 10, 2016, 11:54:33 pm »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...
I'd tend to agree, but the OP did have the WaPo numbers before they were released as well. The WaPo jumped the gun on the embargo, but he had the numbers before that story was posted.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #59 on: September 10, 2016, 11:58:22 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:00:06 am by Doctor Imperialism »

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight doesn't seem to have the polls yet. I think we all know where this is going...

RCP is notoriously erratic when it comes to posting polls. People more conspiratorially-minded than I might point out that they're often posted when someone with insider knowledge could make the most money on Predictit, but I digress.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2016, 11:59:47 pm »

These polls make zero sense.  All of these within 2 to 3 points of each other.  Yeah that don't sound right.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #61 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:40 am »

OP is having an affair with Frank Underwood.
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Mallow
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« Reply #62 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:04:09 am by Mallow »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.
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cinyc
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« Reply #63 on: September 11, 2016, 12:11:45 am »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.
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Mallow
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« Reply #64 on: September 11, 2016, 12:14:41 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:20:31 am by Mallow »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the PVIs for each state have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

No.  The Cook PVI for Arizona is R+7 and Georgia is R+6.  New Hampshire is D+1 and Nevada is D+2.  You are talking about the margin, not the PVI, which is usually about double the PVI.

I'm talking about the margin less the national margin, not the margin alone. The former is closely related to the PVI--as you say, it's about double the PVI. I'll modify my original post to clarify that.

My calculations are all based on the margin minus the national margin, so my conclusions are unchanged by the wording changes.

Yes, your conclusions are unchanged - unless you think the electorate is going to change in a manner that makes past PVI/net margin calculations meaningless.  That is more possible this cycle than in the past.

If you want me to say it's not impossible... well, it's not impossible. There are examples of such swings in the past. But given a) the rarity with which it happens, b) the relative steadiness of two of the states' PVIs (GA and NH) in the past several elections, c) other polling which disagrees, and d) demographic arguments, it seems highly improbable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2016, 12:16:04 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #67 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:28 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

If all 4 are close, Ohio implodes.
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Ljube
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« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:46 am »

If Georgia or Arizona is close, then New Hampshire is a D blowout. 

If Nevada or New Hampshire is close, Georgia and Arizona is an R blowout

Of course they are. Georgia and Arizona were never truly competitive.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2016, 12:32:15 am »

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #70 on: September 11, 2016, 12:36:21 am »

Would you please be so kind and post a link for these results ?

Thx.

He's not able or willing to do so.
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cinyc
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« Reply #71 on: September 11, 2016, 12:41:05 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 12:44:09 am by cinyc »

I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn.  So this probably checks out.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #72 on: September 11, 2016, 12:45:46 am »


Then it's probably right.

But bad for this political editor to post the results before his company even released them.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2016, 12:52:45 am »

You just said what I thought. Didn't want to out the guy. I thank him for the gift though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2016, 01:04:20 am »

If these are added to the database, Hillary will fall below 270 EV again for the first time in a few months ... (because NV goes from Clinton to tossup).
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