Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown (user search)
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  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown (search mode)
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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 14351 times)
Gustaf
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Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: September 11, 2016, 03:12:09 PM »

Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?

I think the theory is that people tend to lie about these things, overstating their likelihood to vote. So far from everyone who says "I'll definitely vote" does and those who are only somewhat likely are actually very unlikely.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 07:07:28 AM »

hahahahahahaha
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 09:24:20 AM »

Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:

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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 09:26:57 AM »

Clinton wins Alaska by 11%, the same margin Trump is ahead by in North Carolina, and in New Hampshire she has more than twice as many supporters as Trump. And South Dakota is a virtual tie, Trump ahead by only 1%.

All of this is with a national Clinton lead of 5% so I guess it's high time to adjust that Alaska PVI.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 09:45:37 AM »

Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:


Kentucky too close to call! Just like Pennsylvania!

Clinton winning Alaska, Kansas, Missouri and Indiana!

Trump winning North Carolina while losing Arizona.

Great job, Google! At least we can be sure that they are not fiddling with the numbers.

Yeah, you sure can't accuse them of herding.

As noted by New Canadaland many of the most whacky results happen due to small sample sizes. I still think mocking them is fair game however because they made the decision to release this s**t as a 50-state poll.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 02:49:07 AM »

Behold the glory:

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