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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 12033 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #75 on: October 05, 2016, 09:24:20 am »

Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:

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Gustaf
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« Reply #76 on: October 05, 2016, 09:26:57 am »

Clinton wins Alaska by 11%, the same margin Trump is ahead by in North Carolina, and in New Hampshire she has more than twice as many supporters as Trump. And South Dakota is a virtual tie, Trump ahead by only 1%.

All of this is with a national Clinton lead of 5% so I guess it's high time to adjust that Alaska PVI.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #77 on: October 05, 2016, 09:31:06 am »

The samples are wayyy to small for some states. 74 LVs in New Hampshire, for instance.

I have to agree that the map is glorious, though.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #78 on: October 05, 2016, 09:32:08 am »

Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:


Kentucky too close to call! Just like Pennsylvania!

Clinton winning Alaska, Kansas, Missouri and Indiana!

Trump winning North Carolina while losing Arizona.

Great job, Google! At least we can be sure that they are not fiddling with the numbers.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #79 on: October 05, 2016, 09:45:37 am »

Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:


Kentucky too close to call! Just like Pennsylvania!

Clinton winning Alaska, Kansas, Missouri and Indiana!

Trump winning North Carolina while losing Arizona.

Great job, Google! At least we can be sure that they are not fiddling with the numbers.

Yeah, you sure can't accuse them of herding.

As noted by New Canadaland many of the most whacky results happen due to small sample sizes. I still think mocking them is fair game however because they made the decision to release this s**t as a 50-state poll.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #80 on: October 05, 2016, 10:06:41 am »

This is a weird set of polls.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #81 on: October 05, 2016, 10:18:22 am »

The state-by-state breakdown would actually make perfect sense in an election where the GOP was making historic inroads among black voters, while Democrats improved significantly with whites (both college and non-college educated). Trump does better than you'd expect in all the states with more blacks and underperforms in all the whiter states. Of course this is not happening so what is more likely is that GCS is overpolling white liberals and underpolling minorities.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #82 on: October 05, 2016, 11:15:29 am »

hahahahaha wtf
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
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« Reply #83 on: October 05, 2016, 01:41:47 pm »

At least the LA Times/USC polls are internally consistent.  This is just scattershot nonsense.  Nate's inclusion of this garbage makes me question the entire model.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #84 on: October 05, 2016, 02:03:34 pm »

Clinton's lead is +5 nationally in this batch of junk.
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Pilchard
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« Reply #85 on: October 05, 2016, 03:23:41 pm »

Google guess location based on IP address for these polls (and also guess demographic data using tracking cookies) instead of asking these questions in the poll - overview of Google Consumer Survey methodology

so limitations of locating IP addresses would explain why the state by state breakdown is complete junk - in particular Kansas, as if the location of an IP address is unknown it might be assigned to the geographic centre of the US, in Kansas - this has caused problems before, including this
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Seriously?
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« Reply #86 on: October 05, 2016, 11:08:04 pm »

9/27-10/3 breakdown with margins sorted by state

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Hammy
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« Reply #87 on: October 05, 2016, 11:13:52 pm »

So Clinton wins Kansas/Alaska/Indiana but loses Georgia and Florida? How's that work? And the high number of undecideds essentially makes the entire poll meaningless.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #88 on: October 06, 2016, 09:29:09 pm »

Trash
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #89 on: October 06, 2016, 09:30:45 pm »

I don't think New Hampshire costumers are representative of the state as a whole. They're less likely to buy into Trump's rigged economy shtick, since they're be getting more and more business as Halloween approaches.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #90 on: October 06, 2016, 09:31:19 pm »

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Seriously?
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« Reply #91 on: October 06, 2016, 09:44:56 pm »

46% Hillary Clinton (D)
21% Donald Trump (R)
9% Gary Johnson (L)

Just saw this on twitter... B-b-but I thought NH was supposed to be more competitive than VT and MA this year! Sad
They asked like 74 people on line at the local Wal*Mart who they'd support for President. Some of htese polls have such a small sample size to be practically meaningless.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #92 on: October 06, 2016, 11:36:59 pm »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls/

As Nate Silver explained before, state-specific poll is better than a huge national poll that surveyed all 50 states and gives the state result separately.

One potential problem being:
Oregon whites are more liberal than the average whites in America.
Mississippi whites are more conservative than the average whites.

If you try to weigh Google Survey to match the national average white's probability of voting R and D, it would likely overestimate Mississippi's Democrats share and underestimate Oregon's Democrats share. But these kinds of things cancel each other in a holistic national sample.

State-specific polls are useful in the sense that they can focus on that one specific state's race, age, gender, and education.

That's probably why we see some odd things like Hillary being up in red states and Trump being up in blue states.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #93 on: October 07, 2016, 04:45:48 am »

Google Consumer Surveys are garbage for gauging state trends.  538 reduced their weightage because of this reason
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #94 on: October 07, 2016, 05:50:56 am »

The state-by-state breakdown would actually make perfect sense in an election where the GOP was making historic inroads among black voters, while Democrats improved significantly with whites (both college and non-college educated). Trump does better than you'd expect in all the states with more blacks and underperforms in all the whiter states. Of course this is not happening so what is more likely is that GCS is overpolling white liberals and underpolling minorities.
So... consumers of premium content?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #95 on: October 10, 2016, 06:31:33 pm »
« Edited: October 10, 2016, 06:35:25 pm by New Canadaland »

There's a new batch of Google polls out. Clinton up 39 points in NH, which is about what you'd expect.

edit: here's the link if anyone needs it https://datastudio.google.com/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/YgS
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heatcharger
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« Reply #96 on: October 10, 2016, 06:35:28 pm »

There's a new batch of Google polls out. Clinton up 39 points in NH, which is about what you'd expect.

Yup. Trump's getting 17% in New Hampshire after the tapes because Hillary's getting 100% of the female vote.

Trump's also gonna win North Dakota by 50% because... reasons.
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alomas
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« Reply #97 on: October 10, 2016, 06:39:49 pm »

Trump up 15 in Georgia and losing in Arizona. This poll is a disaster.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #98 on: October 10, 2016, 06:50:49 pm »

Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #99 on: October 10, 2016, 09:18:43 pm »

Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.
Massive understatement.
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