Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 14353 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #150 on: November 01, 2016, 10:40:15 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #151 on: November 01, 2016, 10:54:14 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #152 on: November 01, 2016, 10:57:56 PM »

IDK if those polls "skew" 538. The average of 538 is pretty similar to Upshot. It is the chances that so different (because of strong covariance and and assumed polling error.) If I am not wrong.
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cinyc
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« Reply #153 on: November 01, 2016, 11:01:48 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #154 on: November 01, 2016, 11:05:23 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...
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cinyc
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« Reply #155 on: November 01, 2016, 11:31:48 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #156 on: November 01, 2016, 11:33:15 PM »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.

Yeah, they're far from A+s, and more often than other polls spit out some real eggs, but they're not as bad on the whole as people make them out to be.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #157 on: November 02, 2016, 05:02:29 AM »

These give me a headache.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #158 on: November 02, 2016, 10:00:22 AM »

missouri at clinton+10 with a >500 sample size? Grin
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Person Man
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« Reply #159 on: November 02, 2016, 10:01:41 AM »


I think it probably has something to do with Kansas City and Fiber.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #160 on: November 04, 2016, 10:08:29 PM »

Did this update again yet?
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cinyc
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« Reply #161 on: November 04, 2016, 10:14:35 PM »


I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #162 on: November 04, 2016, 10:17:02 PM »


I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.
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cinyc
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« Reply #163 on: November 04, 2016, 10:22:57 PM »


I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.

That puts them on track to possibly update their numbers on Monday.  It's usually been 5-6 days between 50-state poll releases.
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cinyc
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« Reply #164 on: November 07, 2016, 10:10:24 PM »

The final Google Survey 50 State Poll Results.  Some of these are a real mess.  Salt to taste:

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cinyc
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« Reply #165 on: November 07, 2016, 10:36:49 PM »

Google Survey Reported:


Raw:



LV Weighted:
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #166 on: November 07, 2016, 10:37:43 PM »

Ummm... lol
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Ebsy
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« Reply #167 on: November 08, 2016, 02:44:17 AM »

Definitely going to lose their high pollster rating!
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