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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 12020 times)
Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #125 on: October 23, 2016, 01:56:21 pm »
« edited: October 23, 2016, 11:43:29 pm by ExtremeRepublican »

The realignment!!



Or, only using the right column:


299-239
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cinyc
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« Reply #126 on: October 23, 2016, 05:58:39 pm »

The realignment!!



Or, only using the right column:


293-245

Your maps have Kansas incorrectly colored.  GCS has Clinton up there, no matter how you weight them.
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cinyc
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« Reply #127 on: October 23, 2016, 11:29:43 pm »

I made a systemic computational error with the LV margin.  (Fortunately, this is only an issue with this dataset, and not what I've weighted before).  Basically, I had the wrong formula in the female rows, and I didn't include the Female 18-24s while wrongly weighting the other Female age categories.  Fixing that issue lowered the average LV margin difference versus GCS Internet weighting to Trump +1.56.  Still a difference, but not as stark.  The same states flipped to Trump, but only barely.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #128 on: October 25, 2016, 04:04:05 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror



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Arch
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« Reply #129 on: October 25, 2016, 04:08:59 pm »

AYY LMAO
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #130 on: October 25, 2016, 04:39:33 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror




By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #131 on: October 25, 2016, 04:40:18 pm »

1-800-AYYLMAO
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Ebsy
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« Reply #132 on: October 25, 2016, 04:42:05 pm »

It would be great if GCS' last poll churns out reasonable accurate results, and they are given a pass for all the junk they pushed out into the world.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #133 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:04 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #134 on: October 25, 2016, 05:15:19 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.
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cinyc
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« Reply #135 on: October 25, 2016, 05:51:14 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.

They also don't weight the polls for the electorate in all 50 states, just to Internet users nationally.
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cinyc
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« Reply #136 on: October 25, 2016, 08:01:44 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror




By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.

Alaska should be Atlas red and New Hampshire Atlas blue.  With whopping sample sizes of 86 and 56, what could possibly go wrong?
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cinyc
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« Reply #137 on: October 25, 2016, 08:15:16 pm »

Google Consumer Survey's 10/25 Results:



This time, the margin in Google's model is only off the margin in the amdcpus LV model by an average 0.84 points.  The raw, unweighted results are off the Google model by 1.06 points.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #138 on: October 25, 2016, 09:45:48 pm »



This map would be the worst, because I would probably get really excited when the East came in, only to be stunned by the West!  But, maybe in real life, the Western Hillary supporters would stay at home because they saw results from the East.
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Hammy
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« Reply #139 on: October 25, 2016, 11:47:44 pm »

This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #140 on: October 26, 2016, 05:17:52 am »

This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
Take out AK, KS and IA and you get a 271 Freiwal Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #141 on: November 01, 2016, 09:44:06 pm »

The 11/1 Iteration:

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Wherever you want to go, you can't go there!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #142 on: November 01, 2016, 10:01:32 pm »

Iowa and Deleware for Arizona, huh?
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cinyc
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« Reply #143 on: November 01, 2016, 10:06:59 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 10:12:04 pm by cinyc »


Delaware is the one state that flips if weighted by likely voter demographics.  Google itself has it going to Clinton - barely.  But the sample size is really small, 94.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #144 on: November 01, 2016, 10:19:52 pm »

The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.
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morgieb
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« Reply #145 on: November 01, 2016, 10:21:18 pm »

I love the smell of a junk poll of a morning.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #146 on: November 01, 2016, 10:23:04 pm »

The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.

As far as I can tell, nobody besides Nate "Discredited Fraud" Silver includes these junky Google polls in their averages.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #147 on: November 01, 2016, 10:25:29 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #148 on: November 01, 2016, 10:26:44 pm »

I do agree that Nate using things of this quality has been very not good for his numbers all season. Not sure what he's thinking.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #149 on: November 01, 2016, 10:27:52 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

Medium/low/high angry women turnout levels?
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