IN-WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana: Trump+7

[Tender Branson]

WTHR commissioned the poll with Howey Politics Indiana. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters in the state from September 6-8. It has a four-point margin of error.

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-has-solid-lead-on-clinton

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Note that Stein is only a write in candidate in IN.

[Xing]

Seems plausible.

[Person Man]

Trump definitely has at least the problem that Clinton has with states that are supposed to automatically vote for them.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump definitely has at least the problem that Clinton has with states that are supposed to automatically vote for them.

Which states are "automatically" supposed to vote for Hillary that she isn't winning? And don't say Michigan. Michigan is the Bermuda Triangle of polls.

[jamestroll]

Trump is not going to win by enormous margins in Indiana or Missouri, but he is clearly favored in both.

[Figueira]

The Senate race is the only thing that matters in this state.

The gubernatorial election?

[Lief 🗽]

Very low energy margin in his running mate's state. Sad!

[pbrower2a]

Very low energy margin in his running mate's state. Sad!

Donald Trump will not win the Presidency while being up only in the single digits in Indiana.

This is not consistent with Hillary Clinton being behind in Ohio...

 

[NOVA Green]

Very low energy margin in his running mate's state. Sad!

Donald Trump will not win the Presidency while being up only in the single digits in Indiana.

This is not consistent with Hillary Clinton being behind in Ohio...

 

Yes--- this does make sense.... take ntl polling averages, throw in some gains for Clinton in the Indianapolis suburbs, subtract some support in Southern Indiana, and drop off in support for Clinton in European Ethnic industrial parts of NW Indiana, it seems a reasonable number.

That being said, I think Clinton has greater room to expand in SW OH and places like Dayton & Springfield than Trump at this point to offset the drop-off in SE OH and some of the former industrial strongholds of Eastern OH (Akron and Youngstown regions).

[dspNY]

If this is right Clinton leads in OH and IA

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If this is right Clinton leads in OH and IA

[Bismarck]

The fact that this poll seems to be to the left of other polling of the state but still has Young massively gaining against Bayh is great news.

[SirMuxALot]

Donald Trump will not win the Presidency while being up only in the single digits in Indiana.

This is not consistent with Hillary Clinton being behind in Ohio...

I think analyzing these relatively safe state polls to try and extrapolate into an overall view like this doesn't work all that well.

In 2012, you had states like here in Oregon where the October polling showed Romney only about 6-7 points behind Obama.

Obama beat McCain 56-40 here in '08, so it would have been very easy to look at that 6-7 points in Oregon and say, well there's no way Obama can win nationally if Obama loses 9-10 points in Oregon.

But despite the handful of polls here in Oregon showing Romney down only 6-7...Obama ended up winning here 54-42.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Donald Trump will not win the Presidency while being up only in the single digits in Indiana.

This is not consistent with Hillary Clinton being behind in Ohio...

I think analyzing these relatively safe state polls to try and extrapolate into an overall view like this doesn't work all that well.

In 2012, you had states like here in Oregon where the October polling showed Romney only about 6-7 points behind Obama.

Obama beat McCain 56-40 here in '08, so it would have been very easy to look at that 6-7 points in Oregon and say, well there's no way Obama can win nationally if Obama loses 9-10 points in Oregon.

But despite the handful of polls here in Oregon showing Romney down only 6-7...Obama ended up winning here 54-42.

Good point here.  Probably it's because safe states by definition strongly favor one party, so the undecideds in those states break heavily toward that party.

[NOVA Green]

Donald Trump will not win the Presidency while being up only in the single digits in Indiana.

This is not consistent with Hillary Clinton being behind in Ohio...

I think analyzing these relatively safe state polls to try and extrapolate into an overall view like this doesn't work all that well.

In 2012, you had states like here in Oregon where the October polling showed Romney only about 6-7 points behind Obama.

Obama beat McCain 56-40 here in '08, so it would have been very easy to look at that 6-7 points in Oregon and say, well there's no way Obama can win nationally if Obama loses 9-10 points in Oregon.

But despite the handful of polls here in Oregon showing Romney down only 6-7...Obama ended up winning here 54-42.

Good point here.  Probably it's because safe states by definition strongly favor one party, so the undecideds in those states break heavily toward that party.

Y'all are bringing up fundamental core truths....

Now, states with a huge number of registered independents tend to swing a bit more from polling numbers to Election Day making polling lest predictable than in other parts of the country (Oregon, New Hampshire, Rhode Island for example)

I think this is something I posted awhile back regarding some favorable polls for Clinton in Georgia back shortly post-convention.

The wild card in this election are still huge polling numbers for 3rd Party candidates, and actual RV/LV models in what currently is an election where the majority of Americans wish there were two different candidates running for President....

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Indiana President by Public Opinion Strategies on 2016-09-08

Summary: D: 36%, R: 43%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details