A Democratic southern strategy?

[Skill and Chance]

2018 and 2020 will see a continuation of the 2016 trends. Trump just accelerated a lot of already existing trends anyways.

The Democrats’ base lays in the Southwest + GA/FL/NC. Emerging groups of young people and minorities will be the bedrock of their coalition. How the GOP regroups is anyone’s guess. They’re a ticking time bomb and their last trifecta of 2003-2007 was almost as weak as their current one. They’ll have to dump their evangelical-southern strategy offensive once Texas and Florida go by the wayside and Millennials become politically powerful.

The strategy of catering to Boomer retirees seems to be working reasonably well for the GOP in Florida, but I agree that the clock is ticking fast for them in most of the other Southern/Southwestern states.  If New England gradually gives out to a more secular GOP, though, Republicans will counter with a big advantage in the Senate.

[Skill and Chance]

This would be my map of state trends I am pretty confident in right now:

Save for a few exceptions, this map still seems pretty accurate. Adding to this, I would color SD, PA, MN and AR blue and CO, LA, AL, SC, MD, UT, MA, KS and OK red.

Possible 2032 map with the incumbent D winning reelection?

I doubt Dems will get all the way to 70% in CA (I expect some erosion in NorCal as more and more Dems outside of CA are starting to run against Silicon Valley, which will counter continuing Dem movement in SoCal and keep things in the low 60's statewide) or that they will stay that strong in New England at the same time they are winning the entire Deep South, but the general theme of this is plausible. 

You think the entire Deep South would give out in a presidential race before KS?  I think KS would go first unless the Dem president is running an explicitly religious left campaign.  OK might even flip before AL does.

[Skill and Chance]

2018 and 2020 will see a continuation of the 2016 trends. Trump just accelerated a lot of already existing trends anyways.

The Democrats’ base lays in the Southwest + GA/FL/NC. Emerging groups of young people and minorities will be the bedrock of their coalition. How the GOP regroups is anyone’s guess. They’re a ticking time bomb and their last trifecta of 2003-2007 was almost as weak as their current one. They’ll have to dump their evangelical-southern strategy offensive once Texas and Florida go by the wayside and Millennials become politically powerful.

The strategy of catering to Boomer retirees seems to be working reasonably well for the GOP in Florida, but I agree that the clock is ticking fast for them in most of the other Southern/Southwestern states.  If New England gradually gives out to a more secular GOP, though, Republicans will counter with a big advantage in the Senate.

It’ll be interesting to see if the migration of elderly retirees into Florida continues apace these next 7+ years given how hurricanes and climate change is hitting the state. I’m not sure this strategy lasts long given that climate change will only continue to become more devastating to the state.

Or Florida gradually forces Republicans to the negotiating table on climate change?