I read somewhere (I can't relocate that article, unfortunately) that if the Republican Party loses Texas as well as Florida (at least at the presidential level), then they cease being a national party.
How true is this?
Its false.
Because the simple fact of the matter is a that the Republican Party exists to win elections. Movement Conservatism exists to advance "the agenda
tm". If enough states won't soften up to that agenda to produce 270, then the Party will adapt via "the minimalist amount necessary" that will produce an electoral college majority. This is the process that has yielded the present alignment, from the previous North South one. Hostile demographic change led many Republicans to view flipping ancestrally Democratic Southern Whites as an easier path to preserving more of their core ideology than constantly having to appease ever more demanding and hostile unions.
It just so happens that the states in question produce the path of least resistance, not because they don't require the GOP to appeal to minorities (even they do), but because it requires a lower threshold that at present will remain constant in most of those states, unlike diversifying sunbelt states where the threshold will be ever higher, year after year.
These states don't currently vote Republican, yes, but that is with current Republican Party dogma and positions, not those of the future. And remaining unchanged is not an option. A calculus will have to be made as to which path requires the party to change the most (Northern or Sunbelt), and the party will by default remain as true to its core purpose as practical and still serve said purpose by winning.
Poll
