NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)

[Person Man]

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.

Yup, the electorate isn't going to be R+4. Even in 2004 the electorate was even, in the other elections since 1992 more Democrats voted

When was the last GE that had a Republican electorate?

[Person Man]

Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the GOP has made is thinking 2004 was some kind of default.

I'd believe that.

and that's as close as it has ever been 1976 and on, I couldn't find anything pre-1976.....

I am guessing you would have to go back to the Roaring 20s to find a composition like that.