Colombia: FARC peace agreement plebiscite (October 2, 2016)
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  Colombia: FARC peace agreement plebiscite (October 2, 2016)
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Author Topic: Colombia: FARC peace agreement plebiscite (October 2, 2016)  (Read 9446 times)
hurricanehink
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« Reply #75 on: October 02, 2016, 09:45:24 PM »


Could you post the raw numbers for Guajira? Its residents are being affected by Hurricane Matthew, with some areas seeing the heavy rainfall after years of drought. The Washington Post anticipated this - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hurricane-matthew-drenches-coastal-colombia/2016/10/01/e34fa784-8803-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html With such heavy rainfall along the coast, that could have been the deciding factor. Guajira voted yes at 65%, but only had 15% turnout, unfoundedly due to the hurricane.
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ag
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« Reply #76 on: October 02, 2016, 10:02:29 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2016, 10:04:12 PM by ag »


Could you post the raw numbers for Guajira? Its residents are being affected by Hurricane Matthew, with some areas seeing the heavy rainfall after years of drought. The Washington Post anticipated this - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hurricane-matthew-drenches-coastal-colombia/2016/10/01/e34fa784-8803-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html With such heavy rainfall along the coast, that could have been the deciding factor. Guajira voted yes at 65%, but only had 15% turnout, unfoundedly due to the hurricane.

Yep, very low turnout. 19%, actually, but still.

Registered voters 563,157
Voted 109,217, of which
YES 65,417
NO 41,566
Invalid 1,274
Blank 960

Whether a higher turnout in La Guajira would have been enough, is not clear. But it sure would have made the actual result even closer.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #77 on: October 03, 2016, 12:35:36 AM »

Sad and disappointing.

And it seems the polls were off by 30 points ... !?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #78 on: October 03, 2016, 04:53:52 AM »

Can someone explain me why there was opposition to this deal?

People who didn't want FARC to be let off the hook for murders and kidnappings.  No clue what they thought the solution was instead though.

Guaviare voted solidly Si, but I wonder if this made a difference elsewhere?:
http://colombiareports.com/dissident-farc-group-attacks-polling-station-colombia-peace-vote/
Thank you Smiley .
Apparently, the regions that suffered the most voted massively Aye.

I Wonder if one of the big reasons isn't to basically send a  you to their unpopular president.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #79 on: October 03, 2016, 06:55:23 AM »

Well FARC...
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #80 on: October 03, 2016, 08:18:00 AM »

Asking "war or peace" in plebiscite...
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #81 on: October 03, 2016, 10:57:58 AM »


Interesting. So the highest percentage of no votes came from Casanare with 71.14%. If you check out the Consulados (what I understand to encompass Colombian citizens living outside of Columbia) tab, you can see that the United Arab Emirates voted against 77.50%-22.50%. The United States comes in at fifth (behind the UAE, Casanare, Norte de San, and Meta) for no votes at 62.48% (totals for Consulados are yes 54.13%-45.86%).
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Hash
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« Reply #82 on: October 03, 2016, 12:17:25 PM »

Colombia on Twitter, less than 24hrs after voting in favour of 10,000 more dead people:
Kim Kardashian 483,000 tweets
#HAPPY MONDAY 64,300 tweet
Humberto de la Calle (peace negotiator) 17,500 tweets

"meh the No won, at least our kids won't learn about gender in school but BTW WHAT ABOUT KIM KARDASHIAN'S TITS?Huh!!!! IS THAT SOMETHING OR WHAT?Huh!!!!". Ignorance is Strength.

Here's a municipal map of this travesty. More substantive analysis if anybody cares (probably not because KIM KARDASHIAN HAPPY MONDAY!!!)



Larger link here.
Kim Kardashian was held at gunpoint: Here's what we know about this terrifying situation
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #83 on: October 03, 2016, 06:50:59 PM »

I care, FTR. It probably won't be a pleasant read, but I want to understand.
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Intell
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« Reply #84 on: October 03, 2016, 08:15:35 PM »

Maybe this is how some felt about Brexit. Though I supported Brexit, and don't think it's similar.

Hey Colombia do you want to have peace? Public: No F*k that sh**t, god damn commies, KILL DEM COMMIES, WAR & DESTRUCTION!!!

Now saying that, how would you guys vote, if there were far-right terrorist groups, and it came down to a peace agreement plebscite? For that it would depend on the circumstance, and how much is given up. I'm just saying this, to understand the logic of those that voted no.

Still Horrific though.

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aross
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« Reply #85 on: October 03, 2016, 09:02:42 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2016, 10:31:34 PM by aross »

tfw when you hadn't got round to reading Hash's reply to your last question until now and even though it isn't even particularly optimistic you're weeping for what could have been

From a vague scan, would it be fair to say that the areas hit hardest by the FARC over the course of the conflict did indeed overwhelmingly vote Sí?
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Hash
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« Reply #86 on: October 04, 2016, 01:43:43 PM »

From a vague scan, would it be fair to say that the areas hit hardest by the FARC over the course of the conflict did indeed overwhelmingly vote Sí?

I would say those regions which suffered the most in the recent years of the conflict (as in, during and post-"Democratic Security") overwhelmingly voted Sí, although almost always with turnout below the (low) national average of 37%, which can either be seen as a general disconnect from politics in those regions abandoned by the State for decades or skepticism of some locals towards the peace agreement.

Bojayá (Chocó) is the most commonly cited example, as it was the site of a 2002 massacre in which 79 civilians were killed when the FARC accidentally fired a cylinder bomb into the church where the locals were taking refuge, and because the FARC apologized on repeated occasions in 2015 and 2016 for the massacre, in events organized with the community. It voted 95.78% for the Sí, although with only 30.1% turnout - but this is in line with its low turnout in national elections (31.3% in the 2014 runoff).

Tumaco (Nariño) suffered the brunt of the FARC's last (?/thanks a lot Uribe you degenerate scumbag) spate of violence in the summer of 2015, and has generally been screwed over by everybody for its entire history (they are blacks, you see). It voted 71.2% Sí with just 28.1% turnout, which in this case is lower than usual. The even more remote, inaccessible and severely impoverished Afro municipalities of the Pacific coast in Nariño and Cauca voted 90%+ Sí, although with low turnouts. Buenaventura (Valle), another case of "generally been screwed over by everybody for its entire history (they are blacks, you see)", voted 70.7% Sí with just 28.5% turnout, low compared to 2014 runoff and slightly lower even than 2014 first round.

San Vicente del Caguán (Caquetá) was the centre of the infamous 1998-2002 FARC DMZ (thanks a lot Pastrana you demented brain-dead half-senile waste of oxygen), and, unlike the other municipalities mentioned above, does have a significant Uribista presence (and a CD mayor, who supported the No after being a tease about it). It voted 62.9% Sí with 31% turnout, roughly in line with its turnout in 2014. The other four municipalities in the DMZ - La Uribe, La Macarena, Vista Hermosa and Mesetas (Meta) - all voted Sí, with decent turnout (over 40%), up to 93.6% Sí in La Uribe, which remains a left-wing stronghold after having been a FARC/UP bastion in the 1980s.

Urabá in Antioquia voted Sí, fairly decisively, albeit with disastrously low turnout. On the other hand, the Magdalena Medio region as a whole, where the paramilitaries pushed the FARC out in the 1980s/1990s ('pushed', of course, meaning, "murdered thousands of innocent civilians using different sorts of Nazi/WW2 Japanese-level barbarities, and forcibly expelled millions to steal their land, but that's OK because Our Lord and Saviour Uribe PBUH said it was OK!"), voted pretty overwhelmingly No. Places like Segovia (Antioquia), Puerto Boyacá (Boyacá), southern Bolívar, Puerto Berrío, one-time leftist strongholds, voted solidly No.

As a final tidbit, Mitú (Vaupés), the only departmental capital ever captured (for 48 hours) by the FARC, in November 1998, voted 75.6% Sí with just 23.3% turnout, low although not much lower than 2014 first round (28.9%). Mitú is absurdly tiny (15,576 registered voters) and is only reachable by boat (from even more middle of nowhere places) or plane (and not on the cheap).

In unrelated, oh so fantastic news, Our Lord and Saviour Uribe PBUH has proposed "amnesty for all rank-and-file guerrillas of the FARC who haven't committed crimes against humanity" - which is exactly what was in the fucking final agreement, for fuck's sake. Somebody please put some lead in his diet.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #87 on: October 04, 2016, 02:10:28 PM »

So basically less than one percent effectively decided the country should remain plunged into a bloody conflict.

F**king great.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #88 on: October 04, 2016, 02:29:56 PM »

So basically less than one percent effectively decided the country should remain plunged into a bloody conflict.

F**king great.

No. 51%.
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Hash
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« Reply #89 on: October 04, 2016, 02:36:10 PM »

So basically less than one percent effectively decided the country should remain plunged into a bloody conflict.

F**king great.

53,895 people. 257,189 people actually showed up, casting an unmarked vote (86,243 people) [wow rebels so kewl! hopefully they're proud of their courageous rebellion] or invalid vote (170,946 people). If just 21% of these people had still showed up but cast a valid vote for the Yes, it would have won and everybody would be in a better place. But because of a few hundred thousand idiots who decided to take a figurative sh*it in the ballot box with their valiant acts of defiance, now a war criminal whose former sister in law was a drug trafficker and money launderer for the Sinaloa Cartel is holding the country hostage and condemning such a beautiful country to more suffering and crises. Referendums need to be banned and declared to be crimes against humanity by the ICC asap.

So basically less than one percent effectively decided the country should remain plunged into a bloody conflict.

F**king great.

No. 51%.

It would be great if you at least made a minimal effort not to say nonsense.
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Good Habit
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« Reply #90 on: October 04, 2016, 04:09:15 PM »


Referendums need to be banned and declared to be crimes against humanity by the ICC asap.


Well, this seems a bit unfair - you rather get a better informed electorate..

So, my humble counter-proposal: Mentioning the Kardashians is declared a crime against humanity...

And TV-Networks who even might consider this are to be declared terrorist organisations....
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Hash
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« Reply #91 on: October 04, 2016, 07:10:49 PM »

OK, some early turnout #analysis:

Turnout (37.43%) was 2.5% lower than in the first round of the 2014 presidential election (39.93%), which was very low because, like this time, the pro-government machinery only did the bare minimum to move their people to the polls. The correlation, at the departmental level, between these two election is 0.95 and the RSQ value is 0.90, so about as perfect a positive correlation as you're gonna get in polisci.

4 departments + the vote abroad (LOL) had higher turnout, with the biggest gains in the foreign vote (+3.3%), Norte de Santander (+3%) and Guaviare (+4.4%). Seven departments had turnout 5% lower than in 2014 - the three eje cafetero departments, Cundinamarca, very remote jungleland Guainía and Amazonas and Magdalena. Magdalena (-7.3%) is probably Hurricane Matthew, as turnout was just 5.8% in Aracataca, the town hardest hit by flooding on Sunday. Interestingly, turnout in La Guajira, also hit by Matthew, dropped 4.1%, so its low turnout is more 'structural' - basically, the indigenous Wayuu people of the Guajira Peninsula/Desert do not vote outside local elections (and, to a much lesser extent, congressional elections, when some congressman comes over and bribes a few thousand people) - 3.4% turnout in Uribia, 6.2% in Manaure, compared to 8% and 9.3% in the 2014 first round. And who'd blame them? The government is basically letting them starve to death so criminal mining companies can loot their land.



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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2016, 10:53:05 PM »

Giving terrorists limited immunity is a necessary evil for ending the war, but it's hard to be enthusiastic about voting for a necessary evil. I think that's one of the reasons (in addition to the weather) why turn out was so low. A lot of people realized that "Yes" winning was the best outcome, but they didn't want PERSONALLY be responsible for voting to gift the FARC seats in Congress and whatnot. So they stayed home on the assumption that everyone else would go to the polls and vote "Yes".
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Hash
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« Reply #93 on: October 07, 2016, 10:19:11 PM »







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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #94 on: October 07, 2016, 10:36:15 PM »

Medellin really loves its wars.
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