Alaska-Moore Information: Trump +10

[MT Treasurer]

39% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Clinton favorability: 27/65 (-38)
Trump favorability: 38/51 (-13)

Link.

Sleeper state!1!

[Devout Centrist]

So it'll be like 2000?

[politicallefty]

So it'll be like 2000?

Not really, unless you think Trump will get near 60% and Hillary will get under 30%. Hillary probably won't break 40% in Alaska, but I also don't think Trump will break 55% in the state. Alaska will almost certainly have one of the highest third party votes in the country.

[politicallefty]

So it'll be like 2000?

I think it'll be like 1996.

Yeah, I agree with that, but I think the two-party vote will be a little bit higher.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Everybody hates Hillary!

[Cruzcrew]

I'm surprised Johnson isn't doing a little better.

[Gustaf]

Seems to suggest a better result for Clinton than the national polls. But aren't Alaska polls generally pretty bad?

[LLR]

Everybody hates Hillary!

Stop.


A margin of +10 will likely mean that Alaska trends D 5 elections in a row, which... just wow.

[pbrower2a]

Seems to suggest a better result for Clinton than the national polls. But aren't Alaska polls generally pretty bad?

Tough state to poll. Huge regional differences, and possible language problems (First Peoples).  Many people without telephones?

...Donald Trump is below 40 in a four-way poll, which is very poor for a Republican nominee in a state that depends so heavily upon oil and timber for its income.  

[LLR]

Oh, also, Johnson's getting more than 10% here.

[Podgy the Bear]

The peak Libertarian vote in Alaska was in 1980 when Ed Clark received almost 12% of the vote.  For a time, he was running in second place and actually finished ahead of John Anderson that year (Reagan-54, Carter-26, Clark-12, Anderson-8). 

Johnson has a very good chance to exceed that 12%.

[Xing]

I seem to remember someone calling a 10-point lead in a certain other state evidence that that state was a sleeper state. Trump at 39% is pretty funny, and I could still see the Democratic trend in AK continue this year, even if it doesn't flip.

[dspNY]

The peak Libertarian vote in Alaska was in 1980 when Ed Clark received almost 12% of the vote.  For a time, he was running in second place and actually finished ahead of John Anderson that year (Reagan-54, Carter-26, Clark-12, Anderson-8). 

Johnson has a very good chance to exceed that 12%.

I think Johnson gets 15% as a best case scenario in AK and the numbers could look something like this:

Trump 45
Clinton 36
Johnson 15
Stein 4

Should Alaska trend Dem for the fifth straight election, there should be some focus on it in 2020

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Oh, also, Johnson's getting more than 10% here.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember, guys: AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three presidential elections. I'm not above thinking Clinton will do better than Obama in terms of sheer margin, and this isn't the first poll of the state to show a 8-10 point race.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Everybody hates Hillary!

You're a sad and salty little person.