Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19

[Virginiá]

I was talking about Whites' relative turnout. Was it not clear? It felt in a much higher rate than demographics (especially in 2012)

So was I. The 'missing white voter' theory is basically how there are a bunch of white voters out there who didn't vote in 2012 and could help a Republican out if they all went and voted. I think it's a bit silly though. As numerous analyses have stated, many of these voters are in safely red or blue states, and even if they all came out of the woodwork, they are not all going to vote for Trump/Republicans. It wouldn't have been enough to save Romney and it wouldn't be enough to save Trump.

Then you have to factor in that Trump is relying more heavily on white working class voters, who have lower turnout rates than college educated whites. Particularly white working class men, again, Trump's strongest cohort (?). Depending so much on low-propensity voters while having no suitable GOTV effort is awful strategy. For this reason it's quite possible that Trump under-performs more than he should have, as he is relying on voters who may or may not show up despite answering those pollsters. Or they could show up in force, I dunno. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

[NOVA Green]

My statement is fact. Trump can't  be doing worse (in marginal seance. Read, what we've been talking with Sbane) among Whites and non-Whites at the same time, if turnout is the same as 2012.

We take 3 latest A polls.
IBD/TIPP
Tie
Whites:       Trump +15% (5% worse than Romney)        47% vs 32%
Black/Hisp:  Clinton +52%                                             15% vs 67%
 
Fox News
Clinton +2%
Whites:        Trump +13% (7% wrose than Romney)       46% vs 33%
Non-Whites: Clinton +42                                               21% vs 61%

Monmouth:
Clinton +7
Whites:        Trump +12  (8% worse than Romney)        44% vs 36%
Non-whites:  Clinton +51                                              14% vs 65%

Since we are talking about margins.  
 
Just look at first Sbane's post

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?

She's not, but she's better margins.

Apologies for going a bit "on tilt" last night, however it does appear that much of this discussion involves 2012 Exit Polls, that provides a real data point to work off of regarding Latino/Non-white voters in various states, versus assumptions about Latino turnout and candidate preference, in an election not yet conducted.

I believe that it is entirely possible that Clinton is actually doing better with White voters than Romney, as well as among "Non-white" voters as well.

One of the key gaps among Latino voters is frequently a mixture of occupation, age, income, and language, and it is not unusual to see dramatic shifts between polling organizations, that oversample older, wealthier, fluent English Language speakers, and undersample working-class and younger Latinos.

There are multiple examples in heavily Latino states, of election day results being significantly different than polling results, because of an under-representation of this demographic.

I wouldn't necessarily agree that Clinton is doing 5-10% better among Anglos than Obama, however it is patently clear the Trump has an "educated White voter problem", and for whatever gains he has made among non-college educated White voters, it appears that it has been offset by Clinton gains among college educated Whites.

Still, i am patiently awaiting any types of data or facts to support the argument that come Nov 16 Trump will outperform Romney with minority voters....

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Still, i am patiently awaiting any types of data or facts to support the argument that come Nov 16 Trump will outperform Romney with minority voters....

Once again, I and Sbane were talking about margins (that means for instance that if Hillary will get <87% Blacks, Trump will outperform Romney, even if he'll get exactly 0% Blacks ).

So here we go. According to http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/ (first link on google with search word - obama romney demographics.)

White (72%)                  39 vs 59,                 Romney +20
African-American (13%)  93 vs   6,                Obama   +87
Hispanic (10%)               71 vs 27,                Obama   +44
Asian (3%)                     73 vs 26,                Obama   +47
Other (2%)                    58 vs 38                  Obama   +20

So now we can calculate this >>>

Code:

                                           2012                            2016
Combined Hisp+Blacks         Obama   +68          Clinton +52% (IBD/TIPP)
Combined non-Whites          Obama  +62          Clinton +42 (Fox), +51 (Monmouth)

So, in those polls Clinton had worse margins among non-Whites, but better among Whites, compared to Obama.

If look at Romney alone (not margins).

Non-whites 20.4%
Black/hisp 14.7%

Trump
Black/Hisp                  15% IBD/TIPP
Non-whites                 14% Monmouth, 21% Fox.  (14+21)/2 = 17.5 on average.

All three are A pollsters with interviews in Spanish wit (tie, Clinton +7 and Clinton +2 results i 4-way). The reason, why I look on non-Whites is that the error gets very large if you look at each minority by own. You can argue, that polls are bad at polling Hispanics, but then you should compare polls to polls (so the bias is ~the same).