WV-MetroNews: Justice +14

[DINGO Joe]

This is no longer a Tossup race. Both candidates are absolutely awful, but looks like Justice will win. Moving this to Lean D.

Oh, and in b4 dingojoe

Totally agree, both candidates are awful for WV and Justice will win.

[DINGO Joe]

Tilt R-->Tilt D. Not calling it Lean until we get more polls.

I also doubt the Mountain (Green) Party candidate will do that well in West Virginia of all places.

I believe the Mountain Party tends to do well compared to other branches of the Greens, presumably because they're the only remotely leftist/environmentalist party in the state.

Doubt you get any other polls on WV.  The Green party nominee this year was actually the Democratic nominee for Gov years ago.

[DINGO Joe]

And again, it's natural gas that's destroying coal in Appalachia, thanks to the Marcellus/Utica and fracking (plus the Combined Cycle power plant).  Ten years ago if you wanted to run a NG plant in PA you'd have to pipe the NG up from Texas, now you just go into your backyard and turn on the faucet.  At the same time Appalachia coal mines have been played out, the cheapest easiest coal is gone. Also,  very little wind or solar in the footprint of areas that gets Appalachia coal.  Wind and solar generation skew heavily to west of the Mississippi.  Literally 90% of the decline in Appalachian coal has been lost to natural gas.

[DINGO Joe]

Well this is surprising. I think the flooding response has restored a little bit of the love WV has for Democrats. Local ones, at least.

Also, is the Mountain Party (Green Party) really gonna get 8% on Election Day? I doubt it.

Pritts probably going to do that well, yes. As Potus stated, she's a name in the state.

Once again I warn that West Virginia polls always vastly over-poll democrats, but that lead might be enough for Justice to win anyway.

I think it'll be close and Pritt could be a spoiler for the reasons Riley mentioned, but at this point this race is looking more and more like a narrow win for Justice (possibly even by as much as 5-6% if Pritt turns out to be a paper tiger, which is very possible given that she seems like a bit of a "has been that never was" from the 90s; I am skeptical that she's some sort of "rock star" given that she hasn't done anything to noteworthy since 1996 AFAIK).  IIRC, Cole also more or less admitted a few weeks ago – unprompted, no less – that his own internals showed Justice leading by a solid margin.  Justice seems pretty sketchy and I wouldn't be surprised if there is some sort of October...err...surprise about his business dealings that sinks his campaign, but if there isn't, then Cole has probably blown this.

Btw, could someone (maybe Riley?) explain why Cole has been doing so poorly?  I thought he was considered a rising star in the WV Republican Party as recently as 2014 (I'm pretty sure he was the NRCC's first choice to run against Nick Rahall).

Justice's business dealings are pretty well known, lots of lawsuits by state governments and contractors that don't get their money in a timely manner.  West Virginians don't really care.

[DINGO Joe]

Well this is surprising. I think the flooding response has restored a little bit of the love WV has for Democrats. Local ones, at least.

Also, is the Mountain Party (Green Party) really gonna get 8% on Election Day? I doubt it.

Pritts probably going to do that well, yes. As Potus stated, she's a name in the state.

Once again I warn that West Virginia polls always vastly over-poll democrats, but that lead might be enough for Justice to win anyway.

I think it'll be close and Pritt could be a spoiler for the reasons Riley mentioned, but at this point this race is looking more and more like a narrow win for Justice (possibly even by as much as 5-6% if Pritt turns out to be a paper tiger, which is very possible given that she seems like a bit of a "has been that never was" from the 90s; I am skeptical that she's some sort of "rock star" given that she hasn't done anything to noteworthy since 1996 AFAIK).  IIRC, Cole also more or less admitted a few weeks ago – unprompted, no less – that his own internals showed Justice leading by a solid margin.  Justice seems pretty sketchy and I wouldn't be surprised if there is some sort of October...err...surprise about his business dealings that sinks his campaign, but if there isn't, then Cole has probably blown this.

Btw, could someone (maybe Riley?) explain why Cole has been doing so poorly?  I thought he was considered a rising star in the WV Republican Party as recently as 2014 (I'm pretty sure he was the NRCC's first choice to run against Nick Rahall).

Justice's business dealings are pretty well known, lots of lawsuits by state governments and contractors that don't get their money in a timely manner.  West Virginians don't really care.

Right, but I wouldn't be surprised if something new came out.  He seems pretty sketchy.

Something new probably will come out, but WV won't care.