WV-MetroNews: Justice +14
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Author Topic: WV-MetroNews: Justice +14  (Read 5813 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 02, 2016, 09:09:32 AM »

46% Jim Justice (D)
32% Bill Cole (R)
8% Charlotte Pritt (Mountain Party)
5% David Moran (Libertarian)

Link.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2016, 09:17:34 AM »

Well this is surprising. I think the flooding response has restored a little bit of the love WV has for Democrats. Local ones, at least.

Also, is the Mountain Party (Green Party) really gonna get 8% on Election Day? I doubt it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2016, 09:20:59 AM »

I'm still remembering what happened in Kentucky last year.  Conway had some leads nearly this big this far out.
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2016, 09:33:33 AM »

Yeah, this is what happens when the democrats get an A-lister and the Republicans get a B-lister. I'm still skeptical Justice will ultimately win, but moving from Lean R to Toss-Up.
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swf541
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2016, 09:35:22 AM »

Well this is surprising. I think the flooding response has restored a little bit of the love WV has for Democrats. Local ones, at least.

Also, is the Mountain Party (Green Party) really gonna get 8% on Election Day? I doubt it.

Considering how bad the response has been I highly doubt that
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2016, 09:38:25 AM »

B-b-b-but muh racist hicks think the Democrats are an anti-White hate group. This must be junk!

In all honesty, I agree with TN volunteer. It's Lean D right now, and that's being kind to Cole. I also doubt the Mountain (Green) Party candidate will do that well in West Virginia of all places.
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jamespol
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2016, 09:46:51 AM »

West Virginia is the most extreme ticket splitter version of Missouri.

MO and WV will vote for the same for the presidential and gubernatorial contests, but Missouri by smaller margins in both.

It sucks that coal dominates West Virginia politics so hard. Yes, I agree that coal and other fossil fuels are still an important energy source, but their usefulness will decline in the future as most alternative sources get viable. Once solar polar takes off in the West, for instance, the trend will accelerate.

West Virginia is a beautiful state, perhaps Tourism could be a good boost to their economy. Unfortunately, most tourism jobs will not pay the wages that coal mining jobs would.

There should not be a war on coal per se, but more of a move towards alternative energy sources.

Anyway, sorry for my irrelevant rant.

Democrats are certainly favored in this race.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2016, 09:53:35 AM »

It sucks that coal dominates West Virginia politics so hard. Yes, I agree that coal and other fossil fuels are still an important energy source, but their usefulness will decline in the future as most alternative sources get viable. Once solar polar takes off in the West, for instance, the trend will accelerate.

West Virginia is a beautiful state, perhaps Tourism could be a good boost to their economy. Unfortunately, most tourism jobs will not pay the wages that coal mining jobs would.

There should not be a war on coal per se, but more of a move towards alternative energy sources.

Don't get me wrong, the ski resorts in WV are great, but those are only worth anything during the winter.

As for alternative energy, WV isn't a great state for solar or wind, so it's gonna be hard for there to be lots of new jobs for former coal workers.


lol
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jamespol
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2016, 09:57:57 AM »

It sucks that coal dominates West Virginia politics so hard. Yes, I agree that coal and other fossil fuels are still an important energy source, but their usefulness will decline in the future as most alternative sources get viable. Once solar polar takes off in the West, for instance, the trend will accelerate.

West Virginia is a beautiful state, perhaps Tourism could be a good boost to their economy. Unfortunately, most tourism jobs will not pay the wages that coal mining jobs would.

There should not be a war on coal per se, but more of a move towards alternative energy sources.

Don't get me wrong, the ski resorts in WV are great, but those are only worth anything during the winter.

As for alternative energy, WV isn't a great state for solar or wind, so it's gonna be hard for there to be lots of new jobs for former coal workers.

I know that. But my point is that as technology progresses, it is inevitable that coal will be less of an energy source. I would say for most of our lifetimes, there will be employment from coal for sure.

I would think summer recreation is certainly possible for West Virginia, but from industry experience, it is winter sports that make a much larger profit.
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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2016, 10:03:38 AM »

Tilt R-->Tilt D. Not calling it Lean until we get more polls.

I also doubt the Mountain (Green) Party candidate will do that well in West Virginia of all places.

I believe the Mountain Party tends to do well compared to other branches of the Greens, presumably because they're the only remotely leftist/environmentalist party in the state.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2016, 10:34:31 AM »

Well,
I'm still not sure yet that Justice will win. Based on some recent elections, KY-GOV and all the other downballot races, WV-2014 etc that republicans tend to overperform the polls by a lot, like if a lot of those living in coal areas changed their mind just before casting their ballot.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2016, 10:38:08 AM »

And regarding Vermont, I think we should have some polls before giving a judgement on the race, I don't like predicting on wind lol.
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jamespol
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2016, 10:38:20 AM »

Well,
I'm still not sure yet that Justice will win. Based on some recent elections, KY-GOV and all the other downballot races, WV-2014 etc that republicans tend to overperform the polls by a lot, like if a lot of those living in coal areas changed their mind just before casting their ballot.

KY-Gov was probably just a polling failure. I hope it is not repeated in West Virginia or Missouri.

Keep in mind that Jon Bel Edwards in Louisiana and Jim Hood (albeit for a lower ballot office) won in Mississippi and some polls underestimated both of them. So I am not too worried.

Also, Kentucky has quite a history of Democrats overperforming in polls.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2016, 10:39:23 AM »

Well,
I'm still not sure yet that Justice will win. Based on some recent elections, KY-GOV and all the other downballot races, WV-2014 etc that republicans tend to overperform the polls by a lot, like if a lot of those living in coal areas changed their mind just before casting their ballot.

KY-Gov was probably just a polling failure. I hope it is not repeated in West Virginia or Missouri.

Keep in mind that Jon Bel Edwards in Louisiana and Jim Hood (albeit for a lower ballot office) won in Mississippi and some polls underestimated both of them. So I am not too worried.

Also, Kentucky has quite a history of Democrats overperforming in polls.
Well, MS and LA aren't coal areas  though.
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Figueira
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2016, 11:15:29 AM »

Well,
I'm still not sure yet that Justice will win. Based on some recent elections, KY-GOV and all the other downballot races, WV-2014 etc that republicans tend to overperform the polls by a lot, like if a lot of those living in coal areas changed their mind just before casting their ballot.

KY-Gov was probably just a polling failure. I hope it is not repeated in West Virginia or Missouri.

Keep in mind that Jon Bel Edwards in Louisiana and Jim Hood (albeit for a lower ballot office) won in Mississippi and some polls underestimated both of them. So I am not too worried.

Also, Kentucky has quite a history of Democrats overperforming in polls.
Well, MS and LA aren't coal areas  though.

Yeah, and they're both trending D.

I agree on VT. The lack of polls there is frustrating.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2016, 11:22:53 AM »

Well,
I'm still not sure yet that Justice will win. Based on some recent elections, KY-GOV and all the other downballot races, WV-2014 etc that republicans tend to overperform the polls by a lot, like if a lot of those living in coal areas changed their mind just before casting their ballot.

(Registered) Republicans in WV tend to vote at much, much higher rates than Democrats.  I recall someone posting a link one time showing that a lot of poor Democratic voters in Appalachia aren't necessarily defecting to the GOP but rather staying home.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2016, 11:57:58 AM »

Keep in mind that this is the same poll that found Trump up by a measly 18 points (he'll obviously win by more.) I guess Justice could conceivably win, since he proved himself to be more of a DINO than Manchin (who is at least willing to back Hillary over someone like Trump.) Justice is awful, so it's not like I'll be happy if he wins.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2016, 12:11:49 PM »

Honestly, Justice is probably going to win.  Polls always had Bevin in striking distance last year, but that's not the case in Kentucky this year.  I do think this poll is a few points too Democratic-friendly, because Trump has to be up by more than 18 in WV.
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jamespol
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2016, 12:15:43 PM »

Honestly, Justice is probably going to win.  Polls always had Bevin in striking distance last year, but that's not the case in Kentucky this year.  I do think this poll is a few points too Democratic-friendly, because Trump has to be up by more than 18 in WV.

Yes I agree.

I hate how Atlas often tries to compare Missouri, Kentucky, West  Virginia, etc all too each other. Those three states are very different.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2016, 12:29:16 PM »

This is no longer a Tossup race. Both candidates are absolutely awful, but looks like Justice will win. Moving this to Lean D.

Oh, and in b4 dingojoe

Totally agree, both candidates are awful for WV and Justice will win.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2016, 12:32:27 PM »

Tilt R-->Tilt D. Not calling it Lean until we get more polls.

I also doubt the Mountain (Green) Party candidate will do that well in West Virginia of all places.

I believe the Mountain Party tends to do well compared to other branches of the Greens, presumably because they're the only remotely leftist/environmentalist party in the state.

Doubt you get any other polls on WV.  The Green party nominee this year was actually the Democratic nominee for Gov years ago.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2016, 01:00:47 PM »

And again, it's natural gas that's destroying coal in Appalachia, thanks to the Marcellus/Utica and fracking (plus the Combined Cycle power plant).  Ten years ago if you wanted to run a NG plant in PA you'd have to pipe the NG up from Texas, now you just go into your backyard and turn on the faucet.  At the same time Appalachia coal mines have been played out, the cheapest easiest coal is gone. Also,  very little wind or solar in the footprint of areas that gets Appalachia coal.  Wind and solar generation skew heavily to west of the Mississippi.  Literally 90% of the decline in Appalachian coal has been lost to natural gas.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2016, 01:04:23 PM »

Justice is obviously going to win.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2016, 02:03:12 PM »

Safe Dem.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2016, 02:07:36 PM »


Woah there, OC comin' in hot!
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