Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Ebsy]

AMLO now at 50.85, soon to cross 51%. I wonder if he will get tired of all the winning?

MORENA looks to be nearing 300 seats combining Districts won with their share of the PR seats. Apparently the Mexican constitution prevents any party from holding more than 300 seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wonder if he'll outperform the quick count... is that possible? With every update, his margin has only increased.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Terrible day for the country.

[jaichind]

If these trends hold then this survey which I dismissed as being wildly for AMLO would have mostly got it.



https://revista32.mx/asi-van-los-presidenciables-ultima-encuesta/

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 25% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.12%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        24.54%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  15.22%
El Bronco                           6.12%


Senate vote, with 23% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)
MORENA-PT-PES               45.58%
PAN-PRD-MC                    30.30%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.25%
IND                                   2.41%


House vote with 22% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)
MORENA-PT-PES               45.52%
PAN-PRD-MC                    30.53%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.90%
IND                                   1.05%

So there seems to be a lot of cross voting by PRI-PVEM-PANAL and PAN-PRD-MC voters at the Congressional level for AMLO.

For PR calculations it seems both PES and PANAL are in danger of falling below 3% which could mean being disbanded.  A party must achieve on the PR calculated vote share at least 3% in one of the national races to avoid being disbanded. 
           
                    PR %
               PES      PANAL
Prez         2.81%   0.91%
Senate     2.52%   2.29%
House      2.59%   2.48%

[jaichind]

Out of the 300 FPTP seats it is a massive MORENA landslide

MORENA-PT-PES    226
PAN-PRD-PT            68
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       8 !!!

Assuming all parties make it past 3% in PR (PES and PANAL might not) then that would put MORENA-PT-PES at around 318 out of 500 seats !!!

[jaichind]

In the Senate, out of the 32 states it is for first place

MORENA-PT-PES      25
PAN-PRD-PT              7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       0 !!!

For second place it is

MORENA-PT-PES       5
PAN-PRD-PT            14
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     13 !!!


which would mean in teams of seats (non-PR)

MORENA-PT-PES      55
PAN-PRD-PT            28
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     13

If you add PR that would put MORENA-PT-PES at 70 out of 128 in the Senate (assuming no party goes below 3%)

[jaichind]

MXN weakens 2% on clear signs that AMLO will now have absolute power unprecedented since 1994 and one could argue since 1982.

[Badger]

Wow! So ALMO will have a legislative majority by all accounts?

[jaichind]

The only close governor races are

Yucatan (non-null) 19% counted
PAN-MC               40.36%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.99%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.98%
PRD                       1.67%

Puebla (non-null)  18% counted
PAN-PRD-MC       39.14%
MORENA-PT-PES  36.92%
PRI                     17.95%
PVEM                   5.99%

MORENA-PT-PES behind in Puebla but if exit polls are right will come back.  Most likely PRI will lose Yucatan  to cap off a catastrophic election night.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

RIP PRI, HPs.

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 32% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.82%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.85%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  15.35%
El Bronco                           5.98%


Senate vote, with 29% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.99%        56            15             71
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.75%        26            10             36
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              21.95%        14              7             21
IND                                   2.31%


House vote with 29% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.96%       223           93            316
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.97%         67           60            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.07%         10           47             57
IND                                   1.00%

AMLO bloc en route to a constitutional majority (greater than 300 out of 500) in the lower house.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RIP PRI, HPs.

They certainly are HPs.
But couldn't one also have said "rip PRI" after 2006, when the PRI also placed third? Who knows, they might come back.

[jaichind]

A good part of the PRI base went over to AMLO-MORENA.  If AMLO messes up I suspect PRI will make a comeback since those support will then flow back.

[jaichind]

Yucatan (non-null) 32% counted
PAN-MC               41.20%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.28%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.76%
PRD                       1.75%

Puebla (non-null)  37% counted
PAN-PRD-MC       38.71%
MORENA-PT-PES  37.05%
PRI                     18.29%
PVEM                   5.94%

Looks like PRI will lose Yucatan while MORENA is slowing closing in on PAN in Puebla.  If PRI formed an alliance with PVEM in Puebla then the election might have turned into a solid 3 way race.

[jaichind]

It seems turnout is more around 63% versus 67%+ reported earlier.

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 37% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.06%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.26%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  15.51%
El Bronco                           5.87%


Senate vote, with 34% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.19%        56            15             71
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.43%        27            10             37
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.15%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.23%


House vote with 34% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.15%       221           93            314
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.62%         67           60            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.26%         12           47             59
IND                                   0.97%

AMLO bloc en route to a constitutional majority (greater than 300 out of 500) in the lower house.

[jaichind]

Yucatan (non-null) 50% counted
PAN-MC               41.45%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.21%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.59%
PRD                       1.75%

Puebla (non-null)  59% counted
PAN-PRD-MC       38.83%
MORENA-PT-PES  36.78%
PRI                     18.66%
PVEM                   5.73%

Looks like PAN is in a good position to capture Yucatan and pull off an upset in Puebla.  Looks like Pueble governor Rafael Moreno Valle Rosas could pull off putting his wife to succeed him.  He seems to have influence beyond the PAN base.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AMLOSLIDE

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 43% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.22%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.34%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  15.66%
El Bronco                           5.78%


Senate vote, with 40% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.35%        56            15             71
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.17%        27            10             37
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.30%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.18%


House vote with 40% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.25%       221           94            315
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.35%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.41%         11           47             58
IND                                   0.99%

AMLO bloc en route to a constitutional majority (greater than 300 out of 500) in the lower house.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, boy is this counting slow.

[jaichind]

All 9 governor race status (all non-null)

Yucatan (56% in)
PAN-MC               41.13%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.40%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.58%
PRD                       1.89%


Tabasco (64% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   68.81%
PAN-PRD-MC        18.75%
PRI                      12.28%
PRI rebel                2.26%
PANAL                   0.91%


Puebla (59% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.05%
MORENA-PT-PES  36.57%
PRI                     18.72%
PVEM                   5.66%


Chiapas(40% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.75%
PRI-PANAL           22.05%
PVEM                   21.95%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.35%
PRI Rebel               2.90%


CDMX (58% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   48.33%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.70%
PRI                      13.15%
PVEM                     3.96%
IND                       1.22%
PH                         0.97%
PANAL                   0.68%


Jalisco(52% in)
MC                        40.43%
MORENA-PT-PES     25.08%
PRI                        17.04%
PAN                       11.34%
PVEM                      2.95%
PANAL                     2.13%
PRD                        1.03%


Veracruz (57% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    47.19%
PAN-PRD-MC         37.81%
PRI-PVEM              13.88%
PANAL                    1.12%


Morelos (55% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.09%
PAN-MC                13.35%
PRD                      12.80%
PRI                        6.40%
PRD rebel               5.28%
PVEM                     3.93%
PANAL                    2.45%
PH                         1.70%


Guanajuato‎ (72% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.74%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.14%
PRI                      13.10%
PVEM                     7.12%
PANAL                   2.90%

[reciprocity]

All 9 governor race status (all non-null)

Yucatan (56% in)
PAN-MC               41.13%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.40%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.58%
PRD                       1.89%


Tabasco (64% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   68.81%
PAN-PRD-MC        18.75%
PRI                      12.28%
PRI rebel                2.26%
PANAL                   0.91%


Puebla (59% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.05%
MORENA-PT-PES  36.57%
PRI                     18.72%
PVEM                   5.66%


Chiapas(40% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.75%
PRI-PANAL           22.05%
PVEM                   21.95%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.35%
PRI Rebel               2.90%


CDMX (58% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   48.33%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.70%
PRI                      13.15%
PVEM                     3.96%
IND                       1.22%
PH                         0.97%
PANAL                   0.68%


Jalisco(52% in)
MC                        40.43%
MORENA-PT-PES     25.08%
PRI                        17.04%
PAN                       11.34%
PVEM                      2.95%
PANAL                     2.13%
PRD                        1.03%


Veracruz (57% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    47.19%
PAN-PRD-MC         37.81%
PRI-PVEM              13.88%
PANAL                    1.12%


Morelos (55% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.09%
PAN-MC                13.35%
PRD                      12.80%
PRI                        6.40%
PRD rebel               5.28%
PVEM                     3.93%
PANAL                    2.45%
PH                         1.70%


Guanajuato‎ (72% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.74%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.14%
PRI                      13.10%
PVEM                     7.12%
PANAL                   2.90%

This sounds weird but it's great that MORENA is either winning or losing by large margins so there aren't any claims of vote discrepancies.

[jaichind]

Looks like PREP for Yucatan governor race broke, most likely under load.

[jaichind]

Overall it seems that in all races AMLO vote share > Congressional (MORENA-PES-PT) vote share > MORENA-PES-PT Governor race vote share (where relevant).

This seems to indicate that even if AMLO does not mess up MORENA will not be the electoral powerhouse it is this election cycle without AMLO.