Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Looks like the Prez real count almost done.  House just started and Senate did not even start yet.

The Prez results are  (turnout 63.4%)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.77%
 MORENA                          45.80%
 PT                                    6.18%
 PES                                  2.78%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        22.93%
 PAN                                18.18%
 PRD                                  2.92%
 MC                                   1.84%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.91%
 PRI                                  13.97%
 PVEM                                1.91%
 PANAL                               1.02%
El Bronco                           5.39%

Looking at the PRD MC PVEM and PANAL vote share there seems to be large scale defections from those parties voters to AMLO (under the MORENA and PT lines) and El Bronco.  A good chunk of PAN and PRI voters also defected as well to AMLO and El Bronco, especially PRI.  PAN's net loss is not as high since in some states (like Jalisco)  the MC Congressional vote went to vote for Aanaya under the PAN line while in other states (like CDMX and Michoacán) some of the PRD Congressional vote voted for Aanya under the PAN line.

AMLO carried an amazing 275 out of 300 Congressional seats and won every state except for Guanajuato.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a website to follow the official count live?

[Hash]

Is there a website to follow the official count live?

For federal elections: https://computos2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a website to follow the official count live?

For federal elections: https://computos2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1

Thanks!

[jaichind]

Looking at where El Bronco performed well once can conclude that El Bronco had Northern Mexico Center-Right appeal.

The way I define "Center-Right" which I admit is somewhat correlated to "Northern Mexico" is to look at all the states where PAN has won the governorship mostly on its own in the past.  That list of states are

Aguascalientes
Baja California
Chihuahua
Durango
Jalisco
Morelos
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora
Baja California Sur
Puebla
Tlaxcala
Yucatán

It turned out that El Bronco overperformed in all these states except for the last four states (Baja California Sur, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Yucatán).  But all 4 happens not to be in the "North"

El Bronco also over-performed in Michoacán which is for sure not North and PAN has never won here on its own but PAN did come close a couple of times (2007 and 2011).

So a superficial looking at the data one conclude that El Bronco appeals to Northern Mexico Center-Right voters in an anti-Establishment mood.  So one would have expected El Bronco to have pull in votes from PAN but to some extend PRI PVEM and maybe even PANAL.

[jaichind]

I constructed an AMLO PVI for the 2006 2012 and 2018 elections by state.  Difference in 2018 performance I think can be categorized in the following reasons
a) Stronger El Bronco captured some of the anti-Established vote
b) PRD has some strength here and some of the 2006 and 2012 PRD vote did not move over to AMLO in 2018
c) PRI machine seems to have go over to AMLO

So I labeled each change in relative performance to the assumed reason.

                           2006    2012      2018
Aguascalientes     -14.1% -11.0% -14.0% Stronger El Bronco  performance
Baja California      -12.2%  -0.7%   10.5% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Baja California Sur  7.7%   -6.9%   10.8% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Campeche            -2.8%    -4.7%    8.2% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Chiapas                  9.0%    0.3%   10.3% PRI/PVEM machine goes over to AMLO
Chihuahua            -17.6%  -9.2%   -9.7%
Coahuila              -11.5%  -12.2%  -9.5%
Colima                 -12.1%   -9.6%    4.7% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Distrito Federal      22.8%   21.6%   4.3% Not all PRD vote went to AMLO
Durango               -13.1% -11.3%  -7.2% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Guanajuato          -20.4% -19.1% -23.4% Stronger El Bronco  performance
Guerrero               16.8%   16.0%  11.0% Not all PRD vote went to AMLO
Hidalgo                   5.8%    2.1%    7.9% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Jalisco                 -16.6%   -9.3% -11.8% Stronger El Bronco  performance
México                   8.1%    2.4%    0.9%
Michoacán              6.0%   -0.1%   -2.5% Not all PRD vote went to AMLO
Morelos                  9.2%   11.1%  13.1%
Nayarit                  6.5%    -0.7%  12.1% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Nuevo León         -19.9% -10.0% -19.6% Stronger El Bronco  performance
Oaxaca                 11.4%  12.2%  12.8%
Puebla                  -2.9%    3.2%    4.1%
Querétaro            -11.3%  -9.3% -12.2% Aanya home state
Quintana Roo         3.0%   10.5%  14.0% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
San Luis Potosí     -13.8%  -7.8% -11.1% Stronger El Bronco  performance
Sinaloa                 -4.8%   -8.1%  11.3% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Sonora                -10.1%   -7.2%   6.5% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Tabasco                20.9%  28.6%  27.4%
Tamaulipas            -9.0% -12.4%  -5.6% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Tlaxcala                 9.4%    8.9%  17.3% PRI machine goes over to AMLO
Veracruz                0.1%   -2.8%   0.6%
Yucatán              -20.0%  -15.2% -14.8%
Zacatecas             0.8%     -7.3%  -5.1%

Some of these states where the old PRI vote went over to AMLO were quite large.  Namely Baja California Sur,  Campeche, Colima, Nayarit,  Sinaloa, and Sonora. Although for some of them it seems back in 2006 there was also saw large PRI->AMLO tactical voting in some of the same states (namely Baja California Sur and Nayarit.)

[jaichind]

Morena asks for a vote-by-vote recount in Puebla

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/elecciones-2018/morena-pide-recuento-voto-por-voto-en-puebla

Ah ... memories of 2006.   Of course the main difference this time is everyone involved also knows that come 2019 AMLO will be in charge with absolute majorities in both chambers of Congress.  So if people do not want blow-backs in 2019 they better do what MORENA wants or make sure they are beyond reproach in terms of SOP.    I guess it is not that hard because INE is suppose to be independent but in this case this will be the local election board and not INE.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pretty sure a 4-point lead is beyond the possibility of flipping even if there were in fact significant irregularities, right?

[jaichind]

Pretty sure a 4-point lead is beyond the possibility of flipping even if there were in fact significant irregularities, right?

It will be hard to overturn.  MORENA will have to prove that the vote was tampered with as the vote was being cast.  The QuickCount gave us

https://www.ine.mx/ConteoRapido/docs/Conteo_Rapido_2018_Puebla.pdf

Which says that MORENA-PT-PES would get 33.9-36.8 while PAN-PRD-MC would get 36.4-38.9 which in turn matches the PREP results.

A chart results in PREP for difference offices shows circumstantially suspicious vote share results.  But that more likely shows vote buying by PAN-PRD-MC forces especially when the QucikCount seems to validate the real results. 

Of course one thing that is weird is if there was vote buying by PAN forces OR clientelist mobilization for the the PAN governor candidate, one question would be: Why did the PRI-PVEM-PANAL vote hold up?   You would think that the PAN forces would vote buy or use patronage networks also get PRI-PVEM-PANAL to vote PAN in the governor race.  But it was only the Congressional and State Assembly MORENA-PT-PES that defected to the PAN governor candidate.

Sorry to continue to harp on my pet subject of Puebla.  Even the Puebla state assembly election results seems to point to an, somewhat reduced, advantage for the MORENA-PT-PES bloc.  To summerize, lets show the non-null vote shares in Puebla for the 3 blocs for the difference races (Prez, Senate, House, Governor, State assembly).  We have:

                               MORENA-PT-PES   PAN-PRD-MC   PRI-PVEM-PANAL     IND
Prez                             59.17%              20.68%             16.29%            3.86%
Senate                         50.14%              26.63%             23.23%
House                          47.76%              27.92%             24.32%
Governor                      35.71%              39.70%             24.59%
State Assembly             41.60%              33.27%             25.14%

[ag]

 You would think that the PAN forces would vote buy or use patronage networks also get PRI-PVEM-PANAL to vote PAN in the governor race.  But it was only the Congressional and State Assembly MORENA-PT-PES that defected to the PAN governor candidate.

That is, actually, easy to understand. AMLO surged when big chunks of the PRI machine defected to him rather than stick to the hopeless Meade campaign. Many of those chunks, though, are not, yet, firmly in the MORENA column: they were a bit of free agents this time. When offered a good price some of the bits could be purchased by the local PAN campaign. In the end, the old PRI was part of the AMLO coalition, but not, yet, solid - that explains it.

Disappearing again.

[jaichind]

Lower House count almost done.  The results are (turnout 63.2%)

                                Vote share       FPTP seats
MORENA-PT-PES          45.48%             219
 MORENA                    38.89%             105
 PT                              4.08%               60
 PES                             2.51%              54
PAN-PRD-MC               28.75%              67
 PAN                           18.64%              40
 PRD                             5.51%             10
 MC                              4.60%              17
PRI-PVEM-PANAL          24.77%             14
 PRI                             17.20%              6 !!!!
 PVEM                           4.99%               6
 PANAL                         2.57%               2

Note all blocs have alliances in all states but I combined them for simplicity sake

Note that it is unless PES or PANAL way over-performs PREP in the Senates races both will fall below the 3% threshold to continue as a party.  Both parties will not get PR seats and both will be disbanded.  The elected PES and PANAL FPTP district winners are still elected and can join another party. I guess all of them (including PANAL) will join MORENA.

Also PT will run into the 8% rule.  PT with 4.08% of the vote cannot exceed 8%+4.08% of the total seats which means they will be capped at 61 seats overall.  So if we allocate PR seats with those rules we get

                                Vote share       FPTP seats    PR seats     Total Seats
MORENA-PT-PES          45.48%             219              87              306
 MORENA                    38.89%             105              86              191
 PT                              4.08%               60                1                61
 PES                             2.51%              54                0                54 (party disbanded)
PAN-PRD-MC               28.75%              67              64               131
 PAN                           18.64%              40              42                82
 PRD                             5.51%             10               12                22
 MC                              4.60%              17              10                 27
PRI-PVEM-PANAL          24.77%             14              49                63
 PRI                             17.20%              6              38                 44
 PVEM                           4.99%               6              11                 17
 PANAL                         2.57%               2                0                  2 (party disbanded)

It is amazing that PT which almost got disbanded in 2015 for almost failing to cross 3% on the PR vote will now be the third largest party and have more seats than the PRI.   It is also amazing that PES with 54 seats will now be disbanded.

So the MORENA strategy of giving a lot of district seats to PT and PES to avoid MORENA running the 8% rule failed to transfer enough votes to PR and PES which means one of them (PT) would now lose some seats on the PR section due to the 8% rule and PES will now get disbanded.

[Hash]

Two quick charts from me:

State governors by party:


Lower house vote since 1991:

[jaichind]

Looking at this chart did I realize that Morelos's Cuauhtémoc Blanco is a member of PES.  I thought he was a member of MORENA. 

[jaichind]

https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/07/perderan-el-panal-y-pes-su-registro-hasta-ahora-la-tendencia-no-los-favorece/

Also points out that PANAL and PES will most likely be de-registered at the federal level.  So we will have the spectacle of PES which will have a larger Lower House delegation than PRI being de-registered and disbanded at the federal level.

[BundouYMB]

Do all these new PT/PES deputies actually originate from those two parties, or are they AMLO loyalists who were imposed on those parties to mess with the 8% rule?

[Hash]

Do all these new PT/PES deputies actually originate from those two parties, or are they AMLO loyalists who were imposed on those parties to mess with the 8% rule?

I haven't sorted through the list yet, but given that 'PES deputies' seem to include Zoe Robledo (ex-PRD/Morena-PT senator from Chiapas), Gerardo Fernández Noroña (former ex-PRD/PT deputy) and Benjamín Robles Montoya (Morena-PT senator), I strongly suspect the latter (in most cases).

Edit: Marybel Villegas, 'PES senator' for QRoo, has previously run for the PRD, PAN and PRI (yes!).

[BundouYMB]

Do all these new PT/PES deputies actually originate from those two parties, or are they AMLO loyalists who were imposed on those parties to mess with the 8% rule?

I haven't sorted through the list yet, but given that 'PES deputies' seem to include Zoe Robledo (ex-PRD/Morena-PT senator from Chiapas), Gerardo Fernández Noroña (former ex-PRD/PT deputy) and Benjamín Robles Montoya (Morena-PT senator), I strongly suspect the latter (in most cases).

Edit: Marybel Villegas, 'PES senator' for QRoo, has previously run for the PRD, PAN and PRI (yes!).

That's what I suspected simply because I couldn't imagine either of them even being able to recruit this many candidates on such short notice, although the idea of the Mexican parliament actually having 60 members who would join, say, the PT (which from everything I've read sounds like a borderline cult ran by a massive weirdo) because they really believe in it and its weird soviet-style communiques is certainly amusing to imagine at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh FFS, Mexico's voting system makes Italy's sound rational and sensible.

What's the final outcome in the Senate expected to be? 70-58?

[jaichind]

As mentioned before all three blocs did not have alliances in all states.  MORENA-PT-PES did not have one in Hidalgo and 1 seat in Nayarit(for some unknown reason), PAN-PRD-MC did not have one in Morelos and NL, while PRI-PVEM-PANAL did not have one in all states where the PRI-PVEM did not control the governorship.

I did a "what if" and assumed that all 3 blocs had alliances in all states and see what impact it had on the FPTP election results.

1) For MORENA-PT-PES it made no difference since MORENA won in all 8 seats where there was no MORENA-PT-PES alliance.
2) In Chihuahua, PRI-PVEM-PANAL would have beaten PAN out for an extra seat if they had an alliance there.
3) In NL PAN-PRD-MC would have won 4 more seats and PRI-PVEM-PANAL would have won 2 more seats from MORENA-PT-PES had both blocs had an alliance there.
4) In Puebla PRI-PVEM-PANAL  would have won 1 more seat from MC if it had a an alliance there.
5) One last tidbit is in Michoacán, ex-PAN Prez Calderón's sister who ran for PAN for  Michoacán governor in 2011 ran as a PAN rebel in one of Congressional district.  She did not win but pulled in enough votes to to make the PAN candidate lose to MORENA.  Had she not run PAN would have won an extra seat from MORENA.

[jaichind]

Interesting MORENA nomination facts

1) For FPTP seats, the national party randomly chooses half the districts and picks the MORENA candidate.  For the other half the local MORENA party chapter choose the candidate.
2) For the PR list the national party picks every third member of the list and the other 2 are by lottery of interested candidates

This is done, it seems, to prevent various factional problems that plagued PRD and other Mexico center-left parties.  Not sure it will work but good luck to them. 

[jaichind]

Oh FFS, Mexico's voting system makes Italy's sound rational and sensible.

What's the final outcome in the Senate expected to be? 70-58?

They are almost done.  One state, Tamaulipas, is still neck-to-neck.  Once that is decided  I will post seat projections based on results.

[jaichind]

This is the first Congressional election where the winners can actually run for re-election.  For Lower House members it is up to 4 3 year terms and for Senators it is up to 2 6 year terms.

It seems incumbents can only run for re-election IF THEY ARE NOMINATED by the party that they won with the first time around.  I  guess this is to prevent defections around re-election time with incumbents taking  the patronage networks they built up and selling it to the highest bidder.  Anyway this is going to be a massive problems for PES winners since the party label they won on will get disbanded and in 2021 or 2024 will not be around to re-nominate them. 

[jaichind]

Looks pretty bad for PES and PANAL.  What I have so far for the vote share per race once we remove the nulls and unregistered independents are
                 
             PES         PANAL
Prez      2.78%      1.02%
Senate  2.44%      2.41%
House   2.51%     2.58%

Both will fall far short of the 3% threshold in one of the 3 races.  Cannot see any way under exiting laws for both to avoid being disbanded.

PES not making the 3% is a shock.  I figured that once PES got on the AMLO train and with the AMLO surge they are all set and sitting pretty.  Now they face extinction at the federal level.

[jaichind]

Now that I think about it, couldn't Morena-PT-PES have tried to run multiple candidates in states where they would get a landslide, in order to take all 3 of the Senate seats? (instead of just 2). Granted that would be hard to organize and it's a risky strategy but if done correctly it would have meant a massive majority.

For example in Tabasco the results seem to be:

Morena-PT-PES: 67.67%
PAN-PRD-MC: 12.67%
PRI: 11.65%
PVEM: 3.34%
PANAL: 1.21%

So even assuming a 3-1 distribution for "alternative Morena" they could have still swept all seats:

Real Morena-PT-PES: 50.76%
Alternative Morena-PT-PES: 16.91%
PAN-PRD-MC: 12.67%
PRI: 11.65%
PVEM: 3.34%
PANAL: 1.21%

Sounds good on paper.  If this was the Japan KP then this would be a slam dunk. I doubt MORENA-PT-PES, or any party in Mexico, has that sort of organization and discipline to pull this off correctly.  They already bungled the PT and PES vote share where PT ran in the the 8% rule when it a goal of nominating 150-75-75 breakdown to get around the 8% rule and not enough votes were routed to PES to prevent PES from being disbanded.   

[jaichind]

As the last votes comes in for the Lower House, PAN gains a FPTP seat from PT.  But it make no difference as that must means that PT gets 2 PR seats instead of 1 as either way the PT seat count is bounded by the 8% rule.  The PR seat PT gains is from PAN so the net seat count is the same.

                                Vote share       FPTP seats    PR seats     Total Seats
MORENA-PT-PES          45.42%             218              88              306
 MORENA                    38.82%             104              86              190
 PT                              4.09%               59                2                61
 PES                             2.51%              55                0                55 (party disbanded)
PAN-PRD-MC               28.78%              68              63               131
 PAN                           18.69%              42              41                83
 PRD                             5.49%               9               12                21
 MC                              4.60%              17              10                 27
PRI-PVEM-PANAL          24.80%             14              49                63
 PRI                             17.23%              6              38                 44
 PVEM                           4.99%               6              11                 17
 PANAL                         2.58%               2                0                  2 (party disbanded)
IND                              1.00%