Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

This sounds weird but it's great that MORENA is either winning or losing by large margins so there aren't any claims of vote discrepancies.

If MORENA-PT-PES loses the Puebla governor races and it looks it it would.  AMLO will cry fraud.  First exit polls looks like had it at MORENA-PT-PES winning.  Also the governor's wife is running also give AMLO an avenue of attack that the PAN governor rigged it for his wife (a la Jeb Bush FL 2000.)

[jaichind]

Looks like PREP Chiapas governor race just stopped at 40% counted.  I guess everyone got to tired and sleepy to count ?

[reciprocity]

This sounds weird but it's great that MORENA is either winning or losing by large margins so there aren't any claims of vote discrepancies.

If MORENA-PT-PES loses the Puebla governor races and it looks it it would.  AMLO will cry fraud.  First exit polls looks like had it at MORENA-PT-PES winning.  Also the governor's wife is running also give AMLO an avenue of attack that the PAN governor rigged it for his wife (a la Jeb Bush FL 2000.)

Thanks.

[BundouYMB]

Overall it seems that in all races AMLO vote share > Congressional (MORENA-PES-PT) vote share > MORENA-PES-PT Governor race vote share (where relevant).

This seems to indicate that even if AMLO does not mess up MORENA will not be the electoral powerhouse it is this election cycle without AMLO.

It depends. This is because right now AMLO is the only significant, well liked figure in MORENA. No one else from MORENA could win the Presidency today.

However, now MORENA has Governors. AMLO also became a national figure through his time as a Governor. If even just one of these Governors is popular and achieves substantial reforms then MORENA could very easily continue without AMLO.

[jaichind]

The states where AMLO is over-performing MORENA-PT-PES congressional vote the least are areas of traditional PAN strength.   Seems imply part of the ALMO surge is from the old PRI vote going over to AMLO.

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 50% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.20%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.31%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  15.81%
El Bronco                           5.68%


Senate vote, with 48% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.30%        56            15             71
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.11%        27            10             37
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.43%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.17%


House vote with 47% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.20%       219           93            312
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.21%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.59%         13           48             61
IND                                   0.99%

AMLO bloc en route to a constitutional majority (greater than 300 out of 500) in the lower house.

[TheSaint250]

Overall it seems that in all races AMLO vote share > Congressional (MORENA-PES-PT) vote share > MORENA-PES-PT Governor race vote share (where relevant).

This seems to indicate that even if AMLO does not mess up MORENA will not be the electoral powerhouse it is this election cycle without AMLO.

It depends. This is because right now AMLO is the only significant, well liked figure in MORENA. No one else from MORENA could win the Presidency today.

However, now MORENA has Governors. AMLO also became a national figure through his time as a Governor. If even just one of these Governors is popular and achieves substantial reforms then MORENA could very easily continue without AMLO.

I agree with this. Right now, MORENA is “AMLO’s party.” As of now, there’s a chance it could fall apart without him, but as you said, the more high-profile the party’s elected officials are, there greater the chances of the party not only surviving but remaining competitive.

[jaichind]

All 9 governor race status (all non-null) (Yucatan and Chiapas has stopped midway due what looks like technical difficulties)

Yucatan (56% in)
PAN-MC               41.13%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.40%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.58%
PRD                       1.89%


Tabasco (75% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   65.08%
PAN-PRD-MC        19.45%
PRI                      12.36%
PRI rebel                2.18%
PANAL                   0.93%


Puebla (83% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.35%
MORENA-PT-PES  36.23%
PRI                     18.92%
PVEM                   5.49%


Chiapas(40% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.75%
PRI-PANAL           22.05%
PVEM                   21.95%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.35%
PRI Rebel               2.90%


CDMX (67% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   48.29%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.75%
PRI                      13.14%
PVEM                     3.96%
IND                       1.22%
PH                         0.97%
PANAL                   0.68%


Jalisco(59% in)
MC                        40.41%
MORENA-PT-PES     24.94%
PRI                        17.12%
PAN                       11.33%
PVEM                      3.01%
PANAL                     2.14%
PRD                        1.06%


Veracruz (65% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    46.58%
PAN-PRD-MC         38.42%
PRI-PVEM              13.88%
PANAL                    1.13%


Morelos (75% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.46%
PAN-MC                13.54%
PRD                      12.61%
PRI                        6.26%
PRD rebel               5.23%
PVEM                     3.87%
PANAL                    2.41%
PH                         1.62%


Guanajuato‎ (87% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.41%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.23%
PRI                      13.26%
PVEM                     7.14%
PANAL                   2.95%

[jaichind]

Overall it seems that in all races AMLO vote share > Congressional (MORENA-PES-PT) vote share > MORENA-PES-PT Governor race vote share (where relevant).

This seems to indicate that even if AMLO does not mess up MORENA will not be the electoral powerhouse it is this election cycle without AMLO.

It depends. This is because right now AMLO is the only significant, well liked figure in MORENA. No one else from MORENA could win the Presidency today.

However, now MORENA has Governors. AMLO also became a national figure through his time as a Governor. If even just one of these Governors is popular and achieves substantial reforms then MORENA could very easily continue without AMLO.

Yes.  I agree a lot will depend on how much of a political profile these MORENA governor can create for themselves.  I am a bit skeptical given AMLO political personality of hogging all the political limelight and picking leaders based on loyalty to AMLO.

[jaichind]

Kudos to AMLO.  After he was defeated in 2012 I think everyone, including myself, saw him as a has been which will just turn into that "Crazy Old Uncle" of PRD who if anything can only act as a spoiler for the Mexican Left. 

But it seems AMLO had a vision and believed in his ability to project that vision enough to take a massive risk by creating his own party MORENA.  True a lot of things took place outside his control that discredited the ruling PRI.  But most likely that would have fell to PAN to take advantage off which looked like the case in the Summer of 2016.  But ALMO persevered and made himself the alternative to PRI as other events created opportunities  for him (Trunp, inflation, high profile PRI corruption cases, surge in violance etc etc.)  Like all great leaders, AMLO believed in himself and dared to imagine his victory.  And it paid off.  He also got revenge on PAN for what happen in 2006 by taking away what logically belonged to PAN.   I might totally reject his vision but I got to admit what he pull off is just incredible.

[jaichind]

For now it seems both PANAL and PES will fall short of the 3% threshold to remain a national party.  If this is the case then they will not be allocated PR seats in the House and Senates races and their district MPs would have to join another party (I guess MORENA ?) since the party will be disbanded.

[jaichind]

The only independent candidate that is close to winning is the Jalisco Senate race where Pedro Kumamoto came in third by a small margin.  With around 51% of the non-null vote counted it is

PAN-PRD-MC       33.88%
MORENA-PT-PES  25.04%
Kumamoto          23.59%
PRI                    12.09%
PVEM                   3.54%
PANAL                  1.85%

I guess he still has a chance of the rest of the vote leans toward Kumamoto.

[jaichind]

The other part of the story is that the party was founded under the auspices of the 'Hidalgo Group', a shrewd and influential regional factional grouping in the PRI led by former interior secretary Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong and former attorney general Jesús Murillo Karam. The PES' former secretary general and lower house coordinator, Alejandro González Murillo, a wealthy construction businessman, is Jesús Murillo Karam's nephew; the party's state president in Hidalgo used to be Natividad Castrejón Valdez, a former PAN and PRD political operator who went to work with Osorio Chong in the SEGOB; the PES mayor of Huejutla in Hidalgo is Raúl Badillo Ramírez, the brother of a former PRI federal deputy whose family is described as the priista caciques of the Huasteca hidalguense region. In 2015, Hidalgo was the PES' best state, with 9.4% - nearly finishing third ahead of the PRD (without such support, it might not have saved its new registry). By Flores' own admission in November 2017, Osorio Chong is a 'friend' of the party. Now, Osorio Chong is a PRI 'pluri' candidate for Senate and publicly supports Meade, but he was passed over by the 'dedazo' and one version of the PES' alliance with Morena is that it is part of Osorio Chong's underhanded 'revenge' (and it is always useful to have friends in different places). However, another version claims that the PES genuinely distanced itself from the PRI, probably because the PRI largely ignored them and did not reward them in kind for their critical support in the Edomex eleciton last year. In Congress, the PES had, more often than not, voted with the PRI-PVEM-Panal, until they broke with them, because, Flores claims, the PRI didn't keep their word and support their 'legislative agenda'. Alejandro González Murillo has also left the party, protesting the alliance with Morena (and is instead running for Panal).

In Hidalgo, MORENA-PT-PES won a massive 59.55% of the non-null vote so far for Lower House elections while AMLO won 64.06% of the non-null vote so far.  In 2015 MORENA was nowhere in Hidalgo which is one of the strongest PRI states.  It seems that the PRI kingpin Ángel Osorio Chong who was passed over for the PRI nomination for Meade most likely worked with PES and his Hidalgo Group to back AMLO. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

AMLO and MORENA have been slowly but steadily losing ground as the count has progressed. If this trend continues, could MORENA's absolute majority be at risk, at least in the Senate?

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 57% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.12%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.26%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.06%
El Bronco                           5.57%


Senate vote, with 56% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.13%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.03%        28            10             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.72%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.12%


House vote with 55% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.99%       218           93            311
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.14%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.86%         14           48             62
IND                                   1.01%

As the vote continues AMLO/MORENA is losing vote share.  I think MORENA-PT-PES Senate majority is safe.  What is more at  risk is constitutional majority in the House (300.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitutional supermajority in the House wouldn't be very useful on its own, without a corresponding supermajority in the Senate, right?

[Oryxslayer]

Prez vote, with 57% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.12%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.26%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.06%
El Bronco                           5.57%


Senate vote, with 56% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.13%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.03%        28            10             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.72%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.12%


House vote with 55% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.99%       218           93            311
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.14%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.86%         14           48             62
IND                                   1.01%

As the vote continues AMLO/MORENA is losing vote share.  I think MORENA-PT-PES Senate majority is safe.  What is more at  risk is constitutional majority in the House (300.)

What would this look like if PES and PANAL miss the 3% line, as you assume they will?

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 57% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.12%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.26%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.06%
El Bronco                           5.57%


Senate vote, with 56% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.13%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.03%        28            10             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.72%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.12%


House vote with 55% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.99%       218           93            311
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.14%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.86%         14           48             62
IND                                   1.01%

As the vote continues AMLO/MORENA is losing vote share.  I think MORENA-PT-PES Senate majority is safe.  What is more at  risk is constitutional majority in the House (300.)

What would this look like if PES and PANAL miss the 3% line, as you assume they will?

will work on ... Most likely flat for MORENA-PT-PES bloc and slight loss of seats for PRI-PVEM-PANAL and slight gain of seats for PAN-PRD-MC.  Of course I think over the next few months there will be a bunch of defections from PRI-PVEM to MORENA anyway.

[jaichind]

Note that for the Senate seats are allocated where the winner of a State gets 2 seats and second place gets 1 seat.  Then another 32 seats in addition to the 96 seats are allocated by PR. So a shift if 1%-2% of vote share tend to have a fairly low impact on seat count unless a bloc had the bad or good luck of just being on the boundary between first and second or second and third place finishers. 

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Nuevo Leon has flipped to AMLO. Anaya now only leading in Guanajuato

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 65% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.95%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.23%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.36%
El Bronco                           5.47%


Senate vote, with 63% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.90%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    28.99%        28              9             37
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.02%        13              8             21
IND                                   2.10%


House vote with 62% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.69%       221           92            313
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.10%         64           59            123
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              24.19%         15           49             64
IND                                   1.01%

As the vote continues AMLO/MORENA is losing vote share while PRI-PVM-PANAL is gaining vote share. I think MORENA-PT-PES Senate majority is safe.  What is more at  risk is constitutional majority in the House (300.)  PRI-PVEM-PANAL gaining seats.

[jaichind]

If PES and PANAL fall below 3% then:

 For the Senate, MORENA-PT-PES PR seats would stay at 15, PAN-PRD-MC PR seats goes from 9 to 10, and PRI-PVEM-PANAL PR seats goes from 8 to 7.

For the House, MORENA-PT-PES PR seats would stay at 92,  PAN-PRD-MC PR seats goes from 59 to 62, and PRI-PVEM-PANAL PR seats goes from 49 to 46.

[jaichind]

All 9 governor race status (all non-null)  (Guanajuato‎ PREP now down)

Yucatan (78% in)
PAN-MC               40.39%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  37.11%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.60%
PRD                       1.90%


Tabasco (97% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   64.28%
PAN-PRD-MC        20.23%
PRI                      12.31%
PRI rebel                2.08%
PANAL                   1.10%


Puebla (97% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.73%
MORENA-PT-PES  35.69%
PRI                     19.25%
PVEM                   5.33%


Chiapas(79% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.33%
PVEM                   22.95%
PRI-PANAL           21.71%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.21%
PRI Rebel               2.80%


CDMX (82% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   47.94%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.88%
PRI                      13.34%
PVEM                     3.98%
IND                       1.22%
PH                         0.98%
PANAL                   0.67%


Jalisco(74% in)
MC                        40.47%
MORENA-PT-PES     25.11%
PRI                        17.24%
PAN                       11.11%
PVEM                      2.91%
PANAL                     2.06%
PRD                        1.09%


Veracruz (87% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    45.26%
PAN-PRD-MC         39.22%
PRI-PVEM              14.38%
PANAL                    1.13%


Morelos (87% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.37%
PAN-MC                14.39%
PRD                      12.24%
PRI                        6.19%
PRD rebel               5.02%
PVEM                     3.80%
PANAL                    2.41%
PH                         1.58%


Guanajuato‎ (87% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.41%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.23%
PRI                      13.26%
PVEM                     7.14%
PANAL                   2.95%

[jaichind]

A constitutional supermajority in the House wouldn't be very useful on its own, without a corresponding supermajority in the Senate, right?

Right.  I think you need 2/3 in both Chambers for very  for approving constitutional changes.  I have to look it up but 300 out of 500 in the House does allow for certain types of changes ergo the significance of the AMLO bloc crossing 300 in the Lower House.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitutional supermajority in the House wouldn't be very useful on its own, without a corresponding supermajority in the Senate, right?

Right.  I think you need 2/3 in both Chambers for very  for approving constitutional changes.  I have to look it up but 300 out of 500 in the House does allow for certain types of changes ergo the significance of the AMLO bloc crossing 300 in the Lower House.

Would it be 300 in the House and a simple majority in the Senate, or 300 in the House and, say, 77 in the Senate?