Romanian Parliamentary Election, 11 December 2016

[Diouf]

Romania’s government announced that the country will hold a parliamentary election on 11 December

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http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/romania-to-hold-parliamentary-election-on-11-december/

[Diouf]

A new electoral law was passed a year ago which reduces the total number of MPs from 588 to 466. However, despite three-quarters of the electorate voting in 2009 to abolish the senate, Romania continues with a bicameral system.

Electoral system for the Chamber of Deputies:

- 41 constituencies at county level (one constituency per county) for 279 seats
- 1 constituency in Bucharest for 29 seats
- 1 constituency abroad for four seats
There is one Deputy for every 73,000 inhabitants.

Voting system: Proportional: List Proportional Representation (List PR)
Political parties contesting the election on their own must be above the following thresholds to win parliamentary representation: 5 per cent of the total number of valid votes cast at national level or 20 per cent of the total number of valid votes cast in at least four constituencies.
The corresponding thresholds for political alliances are: 8 per cent for alliances of two parties, 9 per cent for alliances of three parties, and 10 per cent for alliances of four parties or more.

Reserved seats for national minorities:
A national minority is entitled to one seat in the Chamber of Deputies if the following conditions are met:
-   The minority has not won any seats in either chamber of Parliament,
-   The citizens' organization representing that minority has a seat on the Council of National Minorities,
-   The citizens' organization as a whole has obtained at least 5% of the average number of valid votes cast for an elected Deputy.

There is no upper limit on the number of seats reserved for minority organizations. However, since there are 19 legally established national minorities, and the Czech and Slovak minorities are represented by one person, there is an effective maximum of 18 national minorities represented under the reserved seats.

Electoral system for the Senate:

- 41 constituencies at county level (one constituency per county) for 121 seats
- 1 constituency in Bucharest for 13 seats
- 1 constituency abroad for two seats
There is one Senator for every 168,000 inhabitants.

Voting system: Proportional: List Proportional Representation (List PR)
Political parties contesting the election on their own must be above the following thresholds to win parliamentary representation: 5% of the total number of valid votes cast at national level or 20% of the total number of valid votes cast in at least four constituencies.
The corresponding thresholds for political alliances are: 8 per cent for alliances of two parties, 9 per cent for alliances of three parties, and 10 per cent for alliances of four parties or more.

http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2261_B.htm

[Diouf]

The most recent poll, I can find:

CIADO, 1-10 August

Partidul Social Democrat (PSD) 35.76%
Partidul Național Liberal (PNL) 32.33%
Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților (ALDE) 8.2%
Uniunea Salvați România (USR) 8.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (PMP) 7.57%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (UDMR) 5.1%
Others 2.94%

As described in the first post, PSD and PNL are the two big centre-left and centre-right parties respectively.

ALDE is a socialliberal party formed in 2015 by the merger of the The Liberal Reforming Party and the Conservative Party; they have chosen the same name as the European Party ALDE which they have joined. PNL have joined the EPP. One of the co-founders, former PNL PM Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, describe the party in this way:"Our idea was to create a credible centre force, a civic force we would say, that should represent the middle class, the entrepreneurs, even those in the public service".We want to represent particularly those Romanians who believe in individual freedom,” Tariceanu said, accusing PNL of giving up the liberal traditions and siding with “repressive institutions.” While their focus on entrepreneurs and liberalism sound more right-leaning, the party has tended to support Victor Ponta and the PSD. They were a part of Ponta' last cabinet with co-leader Daniel Constantin serving as Minister of Agriculture. Popescu-Tariceanu ran for president in 2014, and after being eliminated in the first round, he pledged support to Ponta in the second round.

USR is the new party, the Save Bucharest Romania Union, based upon the Save Bucharest Association formed in 2006 as a reaction to the demolition of architectural heritage houses and the building of high-rise buildings in protected Bucharest neighborhoods, as well as the diminishing number of green space areas in Bucharest. It also focuses strongly on cases of corruption and crime among politicians and civil servants. The association and party is led by mathematician Nicușor Dan, who has become increasingly well-known and popular in recent years. Dan stood as an independent in the Bucharest local elections in 2012 and received 8.6%. The Association formed the party to support Dan's bid for Bucharest Mayor in June 2016, where they ended up finishing second with 30.52% of the votes. After that great result, they decided to go nationwide. They have a kind of M5S vibe in not being very keen to compromise with the existing parties, that are seen as corrupt, particularly the PSD. The latter reason is perhaps why they mostly seemed to attract PNL-voters in the Bucharest election. Most likely not a part of a new cabinet, especially not in alliance with PSD or ALDE, both of whom have leaders with sentences, Liviu Dragnea and Popescu-Tariceanu.

PMP is the personal vessel for former president Traian Băsescu. Like the PNL, it is a member of the EPP in the European Parliament. Băsescu has unsuccesfully tried to convince technocrat PM Cioloș to run for his party. Will most likely support a PNL government, and due to their current leadership vacuum, he might even try to lead such a government should the possibility emerge.

Finally, the UDMR is the party representing mainly the ethnic Hungarians of Romania. It is an EPP member as well, but has supported governments of different colours. If needed, it could very well join a government from either side to give it the necessary votes to gather a majority. Like in 2012, they will be just around the 5% threshold, but even if they fall below that, they should be able to collect at least 20% in 4 different constituencies.

To sum up, the most likely combinations are PSD-ALDE and PNL-PMP. If none of these combinations reach a majority, or only a slight one, then UDMR is likely to join either one. USR a bit of a joker, but not very likely to join a government.

[Diouf]

Finally, the UDMR is the party representing mainly the ethnic Hungarians of Romania. It is an EPP member as well, but has supported governments of different colours. If needed, it could very well join a government from either side to give it the necessary votes to gather a majority. Like in 2012, they will be just around the 5% threshold, but even if they fall below that, they should be able to collect at least 20% in 4 different constituencies.

In the 2012 general election, they won 71.3% in Harghita, 57.5% in Covasna, 34.4% in Mureș, 33% in Satu Mare, 22.36% in Sălaj, 19.6% in Bihor and 13% in Cluj on a national vote of 5.24%

I could not vote find the percentage of the vote, only the seat distribution in the 2016 local elections. But here they reached 65% in Covasna, 61% in Harghita, 43% in Mureș, 40% in Satu Mare, 22% in  Sălaj, 20% in Bihor and 19% in Cluj of the seats on a national vote of 4.98%.

So it seems like the criteria of 20% in at least 4 constituencies should be quite managable for the UDMR. If calculated from the 2012 general election, they would have to drop below 3.16% nationwide to get beneath 20% in Satu Mare, the 4th constituency.

[Diouf]

New Avangarde poll

PSD 41%
PNL 30%
ALDE 7%
PMP 6%
USR 5%
UDMR 5%

Approval ratings of important politicians

42%, Gabriela Firea, PSD Bucharest Mayor.
41%, Victor Ponta, PSD Prime Minister 2012-2015.
40%, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, ALDE co-leader and President of Senate, PNL Prime Minister 2004-2008
38%, Klaus Iohannis, Romanian President, independent according to law but elected as PNL.
37%, Dacian Ciolos, current technocrat PM, previously EU Agricultural Commissioner
34%, Liviu Dragnea, PSD leader
28%, Traian Basescu, PMP leader and President 2004-2014.
22%, Vasile Blaga, PNL Co-leader, previous President of Senate and Minister of Internal Affairs.
20%, Alina Gorghiu PNL Co-leader.

In this poll, PSD will have a majority with ALDE alone which is probably their preferred outcome. Ponta and Dragnea announced that Ponta will run for PSD in these elections as spokesperson for public finances. There had been some rumours that Ponta would follow friend and economic backer Sebastian Ghiță to the nationalist social democrats in United Romania Party (PRU). In their common press conference, Ponta stated "I am happy that Liviu and the other colleagues have shown solidarity with me, especially since they knew what it means to be unjustly accused. I am treated as if I was Osama bin Laden or Pablo Escobar". Ponta, who is already on trial in a case for corruption-related charges stemming from work he did as a lawyer from 2007 to 2008, is now being investigated for corruption during his time as PM. He is deemed to have offered Ghiță a seat in parliament in exchange for Ghiță paying €220,000 (£184,000) to cover the costs of a visit by a political figure. Ghiță told the Mediafax news agency that this figure was Tony Blair. Prosecutors said Ponta arranged the visit so it looked as if it had been initiated and organised by non-political groups, and that he benefited from press coverage of the visit.

PNL is clearly hampered by the lack of a popular front-person for these parliamentary elections. They would like Ciolos to run for them, but he is still refusing to run in the December elections. Perhaps other ministers could be convinced. Catalin Predoiu, who has previously been Justice Minister and acting Prime Minister, used to be touted for the position, but his terrible performance in the Bucharest Local election a few months ago made clear that he is unsuitable as well. He finished third with only 11% of the votes, far behind Firea and Dan.

[Diouf]

PNL still trying to court Ciolos, but nothing suggest that Ciolos is about to change his mind.
They also try to sweet talk USR, while at the same time distancing themselves from PMP (a bit weird) and ALDE (less weird). I understand that Basescu is damaged goods, and that he is a former PNLer now running his own party, but it seems weird to criticize his party like this. Especially because all polls suggest that they will need his votes if they are to have any chance of forming the government.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/the-liberals-contemplate-teaming-up-with-usr-after-elections/

[Diouf]

The Save Romanian Union could be boosted somewhat by technocrat ministers deciding to run for them in the election. However, despite Ciolos popularity improving in recent weeks, in could very well just end up like Monti in 2013.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/technocrat-minister-considers-joining-usr/

[Diouf]

Head of Romania’s liberal party resigns over corruption

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http://www.politico.eu/article/head-of-romanias-liberal-party-resigns-over-corruption-vasile-blaga/

[Diouf]

Head of Romania’s liberal party resigns over corruption

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http://www.politico.eu/article/head-of-romanias-liberal-party-resigns-over-corruption-vasile-blaga/

The Liberals decided on Saturday night that Alina Gorghiu should be the only chair of the party until the congress next spring, while Arad mayor, Gheorghe Falca was appointed the leader of the party’s electoral campaign for the parliamentary elections due on December 11.

Gorghiu not exactly well-liked, she was at the bottom of the popularity list in a recent popularity poll (see above).  Falca has been mayor in Arad since 2004, but I don't know how much of a presence, he has nationally. It's probably fair to say that PNL is still looking for the perfect character to lead them in this election.

It's not exactly clear who would become PM when one of the sides win. President Iohannis has stated that the next PM should be a politician, not another technocrat, so even in the (relatively unlikely) grand coalition scenario, he would prefer for Ciolos not to continue (unless he commits to a party and runs in the election which he continues to reject). Also, Iohannis stated that he would not appoint "a criminally prosecuted or convicted person or one doesn’t observe integrity standards". This means that PSD leader Liviu Dragnea could not be appointed PM. Dragnea has accused Iohannis of interfering in the election campaign and that such a move would be unconstitutional. However, it is not clear that Dragnea will ultimately be PSD's PM candidate no matter what, but it if he insists, it could end up in a showdown with the president. A Ponta comeback should not be ruled out, eventhough he would of course not fulfil Iohannis' criteria either.

Recent poll from PRA:
38% PSD
30% PNL
 9% USR
 6% ALDE
 5% UDMR
 4% PMP

Just on the line whether PSD and ALDE will have a majority. If PMP makes it in, they will definitively not have on with these numbers.

44.5% believes the tecnocrat government is good for Romania, while 43% is opposed to it. Reflects quite well why PNL continues to hope for Ciolos to run for them.

[Diouf]

First member of the Governmentt who resigns to run for elections

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/first-member-of-the-govt-who-resigns-to-run-for-elections/

[Diouf]

Tensions within ALDE over co-chair's "anti-anticorruption statements"

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/tensions-within-alde-younger-members-to-resign-csm-notifies-judicial-inspection-on-tariceanus-statements-against-dna/

[Diouf]

Where does political power lie in Romania?

As in, seeing as it is a semi-presidential system, with a PNL president and PSD led parliament, how would they be expected to work together?

The main legislative powers are with parliament. The President can send proposals back to parliament for reconsideration once, but if passed again, they must become law. It does not mean that there will not be any disputes, but it would be more rhetorical disputes than legislative disputes. The main problem in the short term is probably Iohannis' stated opposition to appoint a PM with a sentence or ongoing criminal investigation; this would exclude several of the PSD's top actors. The question of who should represent Romania internationally might re-arise; the President has the right to do it, but he let Ciolos go to European Councils a few times, he probably would not let a PSD PM do that. Some good parts here from this blog: http://presidential-power.com/?cat=13

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Btw Ciolos has put forward his own political platform, which was quickly completely embraced by the PNL. But Ciolos maintains that he will not run in the election, which is another precondition Iohannis has stated for a PM to be appointed. PSD and ALDE obviously attacked the platform, maybe especially due to this line, which clearly refers to the leading people in those parties: "Romania risks being governed by criminally investigated or convicted politicians, people who cannot represent the future anymore". Also, they fear a closer connection between the PNL and the relatively popular Ciolos could make it harder for them to win the election.

[Diouf]

While Ciolos insists he is not going to run in the december elections, it now seems that he and President Iohannis has reached agreement that he could stil be PM in a PNL-led government after the elections.

Iohannis now states that Ciolos does not need to run in the election, it is enough if parties back his platform and have a majority after the election:“Of course he is a good option. If he has been very good for one year and I designated him, why shouldn’t he be good hereafter as well? But this designation will depend on the parties. If parties assume his proposal-you know there are meetings the President has with the parties after elections and if the parties come up there and say we probably have a majority, we propose Ciolos-then I consider it’s a political proposal and I will seriously consider it.
It’s not the President’s role to check if he (the premier) paid his membership fee, I care less. I am interested in the political assumption. If a person is politically assumed by a party or by a coalition of parties, then in my view he is a political premier,”.

Ciolos states that he is interested in remaining as PM, but not in another big coalition: "I am not reluctant to get involved. Let’s wait for the election results. If we build an electoral campaign around one person and try to make an icon out if him, in my opinion this is not what people are waiting for. I am not reluctant to get involved, but I don’t believe I am indispensable, to be direct.
I do not believe a large coalition government could work in the next period. Anyway, I do not see myself involved in such a structure. I believe currently Romania needs clear governance, in one direction or another. I exclude getting involved in a large coalition government that does not have a clear reform direction.
I never raised the issue of joining a party for the sake of joining it. I don’t believe people are interested in this.
In principle, I do not intend to get involved in the campaign, given that meanwhile we must govern. As I am not running in elections, I will not take part to the electoral campaign as politician, however it seems normal to use some instruments to convey messages or to answer some questions."

http://www.romaniajournal.ro/iohannis-ciolos-has-been-very-good-one-year-why-shouldnt-he-be-hereafter/

http://www.romaniajournal.ro/pm-dacian-ciolos-for-hotnews-ro-i-am-not-reluctant-to-get-involved-i-do-not-see-myself-in-a-government-with-psd/

[Diouf]

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/update2-liberals-nominate-dacian-ciolos-for-pm-position-what-did-ciolos-iohannis-say/

[Diouf]

The PSD has found their PM. The 52-year economist and Tatar Muslim Sevil Shhaideh. Has there ever been a female Muslim head of government in the EU? Or any Muslim for that matter?

She has been director of the Constanta County Council for almost 30 years (1993-2012), and from 2007-12, she was also a part of the leadership of the National Union of County Councils. In 2012, she became a State Secretary for Regional Development under Liviu Dragnea. When Dragnea was convicted for orchestrating electoral fraud during the 2012 presidential impeachment referendum, she took over as Minister of Regional Development. However, a half year later in late 2015, the whole Ponta cabinet fell, so her first stint as a minister was rather short. Her close connection to Dragnea suggests that he might be using the "Kaczynski model", now that he cannot be PM himself.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-proposes-woman-prime-minister/

[Diouf]

Iohannis rejects Shhaideh! Major political crisis now. PSD and ALDE contemplates suspending the President.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/update-president-iohannis-turns-down-sevil-shhaideh-as-pm-calls-on-psd-alde-to-submit-another-proposal-psd-press-conference-at-16-00h/

http://www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-alde-contemplate-suspending-the-president-following-refusal-to-nominate-sevil-shhaideh-as-pm/

[Diouf]

PSD chairman backs down, submits second PM nomination: Sorin Grindeanu

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-chairman-submits-second-pm-nomination-sorin-grindeanu/