CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1
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  CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1  (Read 4517 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2016, 04:50:20 PM »

High Johnson numbers persist. Interesting. I wish more polls would start doing second preference among his supporters in case he collapses later in the season.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: August 24, 2016, 04:53:28 PM »

Although there are always outliers (like those freaky Florida uni polls), most state polls lately seem to be consistent with a Clinton lead of 5-7 points nationally.
Told you, bro!

Told me what?
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amdcpus
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« Reply #27 on: August 24, 2016, 05:34:43 PM »

High Johnson numbers persist. Interesting. I wish more polls would start doing second preference among his supporters in case he collapses later in the season.

The NBC/SurveyMonkey huge national poll which consistently has him at 10-11% says that 39% of Johnson supporters would prefer Trump to 36% for Clinton.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2016, 05:52:38 PM »

High Johnson numbers persist. Interesting. I wish more polls would start doing second preference among his supporters in case he collapses later in the season.

The NBC/SurveyMonkey huge national poll which consistently has him at 10-11% says that 39% of Johnson supporters would prefer Trump to 36% for Clinton.
Their intention of voting Johnson is very intresting as well.

I.e. who will first leave a [sinking?] ship, Berniebros or #neverTrumpers, if Jonson collapse from 10% to, say, 5%. It doesn't need to look like "second preference".
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Xing
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« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2016, 06:18:08 PM »

A 5-point lead for Trump is better for him than what we've seen before, but hardly safe. North Carolina looks very close right now, with a slight edge for Hillary.
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dspNY
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« Reply #30 on: August 24, 2016, 07:07:10 PM »

A 5-point lead for Trump is better for him than what we've seen before, but hardly safe. North Carolina looks very close right now, with a slight edge for Hillary.

NC looks like a consistent 1-2 point lead for Hillary in the public polling but the private polling and parties are saying it's a wider Clinton advantage
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #31 on: August 24, 2016, 10:20:12 PM »

Those are both within the ballpark of what I would expect. Johnson is performing better in North Carolina than I would have guessed.

Stein isn't on the ballot there, which might be helping Johnson a bit atm.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #32 on: August 25, 2016, 04:52:03 AM »

The numbers of the OP are referred to registered voters. The likely voters numbers are a bit different.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #33 on: August 25, 2016, 10:22:44 AM »

Sorry the numbers in the OP are the reigstered voter numbers, if you look at the Likely Voter numbers they are:

Arizona:
Trump: 45%
Clinton: 38%
Johnson: 12%
Stein: 4%

Trump +7

North Carolina:
Trump: 45%
Clinton: 45%
Johnson: 9%
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #34 on: August 25, 2016, 10:31:34 AM »

At this point, I think North Carolina is leaning Clinton. My confidence that she will win it is high, but the margin will not be more than three points. Arizona is the inverse. Trump will win it, but very underwhelmingly.

For Arizona, I just hope that Paul Penzone (sp) can defeat Joe Apario!!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #35 on: August 25, 2016, 08:03:22 PM »

So, I think we can all agree that at this point Arizona looks like a lean R state?

The last two polls were from A- pollsters of LVs and basically both show AZ as a Trump +6-7 state.

YouGov poll (B pollster) looks like an outlier showing it virtually tied in a state with a large chunk of retirees.

I think it's safe to say that the SoCal retirees are coming home to Trump in his strongest demographic (Anglos 50+) and regardless of the growing Latino population at this point we aren't yet seeing any polling evidence that there is a large enough offset from younger voters to counter Trump's advantage with retirees.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump win AZ in November, and I suspect it will be a little closer than expected, but not sure if it is worthy of a Clinton campaign investment at this point, considering resourcing and down-ballots in MO and demographics in GA.

NC looks more like we might expect in a +6-7 Clinton National Lead with NC being somewhere around a +2-4 Clinton Lead statewide with multiple average A pollsters...
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2016, 05:10:49 AM »


Why is this showing as R+7 in the database?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2016, 06:21:25 AM »

NC is the new FL.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2016, 08:16:37 AM »

The likely voter number for AZ is R+7
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RR1997
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« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2016, 03:11:59 PM »

This poll proves my theory that Donald Trump will win AZ by a relatively comfortable margin. Hillary should focus on states like GA and NC instead,
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2016, 10:47:02 PM »

AZ is the Democrats' Minnesota. They always hope it flips because of favorable demographic trends, but it never happens.

The thing is about AZ TX though, is that the Pubs get a bigger chunk of the Hispanics outside the Cuban zone than in most places. Will that adequately hold given the Trump presentation?

AZ Hispanics are more liberal then average. It's Texas Hispanics that are unusually conservative.
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