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  PA-Franklin and Marshall College: Clinton+7 (and +4)
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin and Marshall College: Clinton+7 (and +4)  (Read 2593 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 01, 2016, 12:17:56 AM »
« edited: September 01, 2016, 12:22:32 AM by Tender Branson »

Clinton leads Republican nominee Donald Trump by 7 percentage points, 47 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters, the poll released Thursday showed.

Her lead is smaller, 43 percent to 39 percent, among registered voters.

The poll of 736 registered voters, conducted from Aug. 25 to 29, has a sample error of 4.6 percent.

...

Clinton held an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters in a poll released by Franklin and Marshall on Aug. 4, the week after she accepted the Democratic nomination at her party's convention in Philadelphia.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20160901_Poll__Clinton_s_lead_over_Trump_shrinks_in_Pa_.html
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2016, 12:20:51 AM »

Looks good.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2016, 12:23:27 AM »

In b4 Beet and Hagrid have a meltdown.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2016, 12:25:08 AM »

In a 4-way race (only RV), it's:

41% Clinton
38% Trump
  7% Johnson
  2% Stein

Cannot find a 4-way number for LV ...

Plus:

Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Donald Trump, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Jill Stein, the Green, OR Gary Johnson, the Libertarian? (91 undecided respondents)

27% Trump
19% Clinton
  6% Johnson
  0% Stein

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/976089416682518756-f-m-poll-release-august-2016-1.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2016, 12:30:06 AM »

The 4-way with leaners would be something like:

43% Clinton
41% Trump
  7% Johnson
  2% Stein
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2016, 12:33:09 AM »

A bit tighter than before, but good to see that she's not really doing worse in PA than she is nationally.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2016, 12:35:13 AM »

Odd that a major pollster like F&M forgets to poll the 4-way match among LV ...

At least there's nothing in their release.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2016, 12:38:53 AM »

Four way polling is an utter joke and I bet you Johnson gets less than 3.3% in PA on election day
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2016, 12:53:12 AM »

So should we enter the two way LV or the four way RV into the database?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2016, 12:53:25 AM »

Odd that a major pollster like F&M forgets to poll the 4-way match among LV ...

At least there's nothing in their release.
Very odd. Also, I'd be expecting the LV screen to the right of the RV screen. I am a little shocked that it's net D+3.

I do get the same 43%-41% breakdown in the 4-way with RV + Leaners that you do, with Johnson at 8%, Stein at 2% and 6% undecided.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2016, 12:53:47 AM »

Four way polling is an utter joke and I bet you Johnson gets less than 3.3% in PA on election day

Why so specific?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2016, 01:06:33 AM »

So should we enter the two way LV or the four way RV into the database?

LV, probably.

Yeah, I agree. Dave can change it if he wants. Odd situation.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2016, 07:47:56 AM »

According to RCP, the 4-way match among LV is:

45% Clinton
40% Trump
  5% Johnson
  3% Stein

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2016, 08:11:40 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2016, 08:12:29 AM »

^^^^

Nice Smiley

Clinton   45% (-4)
Trump    40% (+4)
Johnson  5%
Stein      3%

8% swing Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2016, 08:17:40 AM »

Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Donald Trump, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Jill Stein, the Green, OR Gary Johnson, the Libertarian? (91 undecided respondents)

27% Trump
19% Clinton
  6% Johnson
  0% Stein
 47% Donít know
In july it was

Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Donald Trump, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the
Democrat, Jill Stein, the Green, OR Gary Johnson, the Libertarian? (64 undecided respondents):

Donald Trump 28%
Hillary Clinton 17%
Jill Stein 15%
Gary Johnson 3%
Donít know 37%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2016, 08:18:10 AM »

Clinton is still up by 14 points in the Philly suburbs and 71 points in Philadelphia itself. That's a huge voting block for Clinton.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2016, 08:19:50 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 08:22:23 AM by LittleBigOctopus »

Link?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2016, 08:26:04 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.

What are you talking about ?

It clearly says on the RCP page that it's Clinton+5 in the 4-way race and +7 in the head-to head.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2016, 08:29:44 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


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« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2016, 08:32:50 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.

Correct. I always post the facts. Some people on this Forum have a problem with facts though, especially the deluded Clinton-hacks and Tender-haters. But you get used to it after a while ...
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2016, 08:35:29 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.

Correct. I always post the facts. Some people on this Forum have a problem with facts though, especially the deluded Clinton-hacks. But you get used to it after a while ...

Sorry, some of us here have a problem looking past your behavior during the primary.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2016, 08:46:57 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.

Correct. I always post the facts. Some people on this Forum have a problem with facts though, especially the deluded Clinton-hacks and Tender-haters. But you get used to it after a while ...
Trust me, I get the same treatment because I am for Trump on the political board. I am "for the trackers" because I post the data points, whether they are good or bad for Trump at the time.  As if they are not relevant in the big picture and most information isn't relevant.

It's like you can't separate numbers from your political views.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2016, 08:55:04 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.

Correct. I always post the facts. Some people on this Forum have a problem with facts though, especially the deluded Clinton-hacks. But you get used to it after a while ...

Sorry, some of us here have a problem looking past your behavior during the primary.
So if he says 2+2=4 you won't believe because of... one more time what?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2016, 10:07:38 AM »

Tender, no one likes someone this desperate. It's really starting to look sad.
Ummm. That was informational from Tender. It's what RCP says. They must have asked F&M for it. Numbers have no bias. They are just numbers.

Correct. I always post the facts. Some people on this Forum have a problem with facts though, especially the deluded Clinton-hacks and Tender-haters. But you get used to it after a while ...

Yes, you're posting the facts. In a fashion that makes Clinton's standing look as bad as possible. Oh, let me share a sample of 60 some-odd undecided voters leanings and add that in!
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