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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5  (Read 2034 times)
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Posts: 14,864

« on: August 31, 2016, 02:16:14 pm »

Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
Not sure I agree. Almost all the polls seem to show the same pattern right now.

I think it's clear that there's been some tightening here and there.  A couple of weeks ago, the polls seemed to indicate a Clinton lead of something like 6-7, and now it's more like 4-5.  Now it seems that we're seeing a fluctuation in the general trend of the race, as opposed to random fluctuation in individual polls.  But this isn't unreasonable; it's more unlikely that the race would remain static or move in only one direction for the rest of the campaign.

+4-5 isn't as good as +6-7, but it's still a number that you'd really prefer to be on the positive side of.  Democrats should be neither panicking nor overconfident; Republicans should be worried, but not without hope.  It's still a long 10 weeks until Election Day.
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