New poll hype thread

[Xing]

I'll say Trump +6, Bayh +4, Gregg +1 for Indiana.

[Brittain33]

Going out on a limb and saying Young +2.

[rafta_rafta]

Trump +4

[Gass3268]

I'll be bold:
Trump +7
Young +1
Gregg +2

I think Gregg & Young have both been running better campaigns and building momentum.

Yeah, I agree with this. Bayh has sucked in his campaign.

[heatcharger]

PPP teases that they have a Florida poll coming within the next hour.

Edit: It's a 7-8 on their Dem happiness scale.

I'll guess Clinton +4 and Little Marco +5.

[Ronnie]

I'll guess Clinton +4 and Rubio +6

[elcorazon]

FL: Clinton + 4
Rubio + 4

[dspNY]

PPP teases that they have a Florida poll coming within the next hour.

I'll guess Clinton +3 and Little Marco +4.

They say 7 to 8 on Dem happiness scale so it'll be Clinton by 5

[Xing]

7-8 on the happiness scale?

Clinton +5
Flawless Beautiful Marco +1 (I doubt they'd give a 7-8 if he's ahead by a significant margin)

[Ozymandias]

From comments over at Daily Kos:

kownby Oct 14 · 03:58:03 PM
Live in Harris County (Houston). About an hour ago, my husband received a phone call. It was Monmouth University polling institute asking him to take their presidential poll. I was shocked since we are not a swing state. Maybe it is another sign that pollsters think Texas is  changing!

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/14/1582602/-TEXAS-Y-ALL-Hillary-Can-Really-Win-It#comment_63884008

Not sure if this is a Texas-only poll-- I suppose it could be national.

[rafta_rafta]

From comments over at Daily Kos:

kownby Oct 14 · 03:58:03 PM
Live in Harris County (Houston). About an hour ago, my husband received a phone call. It was Monmouth University polling institute asking him to take their presidential poll. I was shocked since we are not a swing state. Maybe it is another sign that pollsters think Texas is  changing!

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/14/1582602/-TEXAS-Y-ALL-Hillary-Can-Really-Win-It#comment_63884008

Not sure if this is a Texas-only poll-- I suppose it could be national.

Few days back, Monmouth said they are polling red states

[Xing]

I'd be interested in seeing a Monmouth TX poll, but an AZ or GA poll would be even better.

[Maxwell]

a legit Arizona poll would be out of this world.

[Gass3268]

a legit Arizona poll would be out of this world.

What do you have against Data Orbital?

[heatcharger]

CBS/YouGov has two state polls coming out tomorrow, from Nevada and Utah. I'll guess:

NV: Clinton +4 , Cortez-Masto +2
UT: Trump 31 - Clinton 27 - McMuffin 24

[amdcpus]

CBS/YouGov has two state polls coming out tomorrow, from Nevada and Utah. I'll guess:

NV: Clinton +4 , Cortez-Masto +2
UT: Trump 31 - Clinton 27 - McMuffin 24

I doubt McMullin will be that high. They don't include third party candidates in either the question or answer. You have to select "someone else" and type their name in.

[Crumpets]

CBS/YouGov has two state polls coming out tomorrow, from Nevada and Utah. I'll guess:

NV: Clinton +4 , Cortez-Masto +2
UT: Trump 31 - Clinton 27 - McMuffin 24

I doubt McMullin will be that high. They don't include third party candidates in either the question or answer. You have to select "someone else" and type their name in.

Why would they even be polling Utah, though unless they were going to check out the most interesting aspect of the race?

[heatcharger]

A new Monmouth national poll will be released on Monday.

I'll guess Clinton +8.

[cinyc]

Following amdcpus's lead, I currently have a one-question Google Consumer Survey South Dakota out in the field.  

The question I asked was: If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
The choices are: (randomized) Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party and "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always last).  According to Balletopedia, those are the only 4 candidates actually on the ballot in SD.  Stein didn't make the cut.  

I added the not registered to vote option to make it more like a RV poll (of course, it's technically not, and it's impossible to ferret out RV/LV when you only get one question) and to try to weed out non-South Dakotans with a South Dakota IP address.  I didn't include Undecided because, as I understand it, those who are can skip the question in GCS, anyway.

I have to figure out how to weigh the sample by age.  Google weighs by age of the Internet population, which skews younger than RVs.  There was no 2012 exit poll for SD, so I have to use something else (probably Census estimates of 2012 turnout or RVs).  Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

[Devout Centrist]

A new Monmouth national poll will be released on Monday.

I'll guess Clinton +8.

C +12

[amdcpus]

Following amdcpus's lead, I currently have a one-question Google Consumer Survey South Dakota out in the field.  

The question I asked was: If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
The choices are: (randomized) Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party and "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always last).  According to Balletopedia, those are the only 4 candidates actually on the ballot in SD.  Stein didn't make the cut.  

I added the not registered to vote option to make it more like a RV poll (of course, it's technically not, and it's impossible to ferret out RV/LV when you only get one question) and to try to weed out non-South Dakotans with a South Dakota IP address.  I didn't include Undecided because, as I understand it, those who are can skip the question in GCS, anyway.

I have to figure out how to weigh the sample by age.  Google weighs by age of the Internet population, which skews younger than RVs.  There was no 2012 exit poll for SD, so I have to use something else (probably Census estimates of 2012 turnout or RVs).  Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

[heatcharger]

Following amdcpus's lead, I currently have a one-question Google Consumer Survey South Dakota out in the field.  

The question I asked was: If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
The choices are: (randomized) Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party and "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always last).  According to Balletopedia, those are the only 4 candidates actually on the ballot in SD.  Stein didn't make the cut.  

I added the not registered to vote option to make it more like a RV poll (of course, it's technically not, and it's impossible to ferret out RV/LV when you only get one question) and to try to weed out non-South Dakotans with a South Dakota IP address.  I didn't include Undecided because, as I understand it, those who are can skip the question in GCS, anyway.

I have to figure out how to weigh the sample by age.  Google weighs by age of the Internet population, which skews younger than RVs.  There was no 2012 exit poll for SD, so I have to use something else (probably Census estimates of 2012 turnout or RVs).  Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

That's actually pretty cool. How much did that cost you?

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

Do you work for a polling firm or something? You don't have to say which, but I'm curious.

[cinyc]

That's actually pretty cool. How much did that cost you?

$75 for 500 respondents.  (i.e. 15 cents per respondent)  The number of pseudo "registered" voters in the poll will be less than that because I'll have to back out the self-reported not SD registereds.

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

Is it the same one you posted in the Utah poll thread?  What benchmark did you use?  Do you have something SD-specific?  

I am leaning toward weighting according to the number of 2012 RV in each age class, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.

[amdcpus]

That's actually pretty cool. How much did that cost you?

$75 for 500 respondents.  (i.e. 15 cents per respondent)  The number of pseudo "registered" voters in the poll will be less than that because I'll have to back out the self-reported not SD registereds.

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

Is it the same one you posted in the Utah poll thread?  What benchmark did you use?  Do you have something SD-specific?  

I am leaning toward weighting according to the number of 2012 RV in each age class, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.

I'll post a link to it later, but it does have the data for SD as well.

[amdcpus]

Following amdcpus's lead, I currently have a one-question Google Consumer Survey South Dakota out in the field.  

The question I asked was: If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
The choices are: (randomized) Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party and "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always last).  According to Balletopedia, those are the only 4 candidates actually on the ballot in SD.  Stein didn't make the cut.  

I added the not registered to vote option to make it more like a RV poll (of course, it's technically not, and it's impossible to ferret out RV/LV when you only get one question) and to try to weed out non-South Dakotans with a South Dakota IP address.  I didn't include Undecided because, as I understand it, those who are can skip the question in GCS, anyway.

I have to figure out how to weigh the sample by age.  Google weighs by age of the Internet population, which skews younger than RVs.  There was no 2012 exit poll for SD, so I have to use something else (probably Census estimates of 2012 turnout or RVs).  Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

That's actually pretty cool. How much did that cost you?

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

Do you work for a polling firm or something? You don't have to say which, but I'm curious.

Nope, just enjoy math.