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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Monmouth National: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: Monmouth National: Clinton +7  (Read 1660 times)
Seriously?
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2016, 01:18:38 pm »
« edited: August 29, 2016, 01:20:43 pm by Seriously? »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.
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Horus
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« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2016, 01:19:32 pm »

Looks about right, I think it's about Clinton +5 though.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2016, 01:22:57 pm »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2016, 01:26:50 pm »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.
These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
I understand that, but the net favorables should lie with the candidate that you pulled the lever for in most polls come election day.

The problem with this cycle is that both candidates are not liked very much by the electorate, so it math fails. Neither won't get 35% of the vote.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2016, 01:31:18 pm »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
I agree with you, that favorability ratings are pretty good indicatons, but this election might be littble off though, because both candidates are so dissliked. {And Shy Effect!!!111}

Besides that you compare favorability ratings of RV voters [this poll] with thouse who actually voted  (exit polls).

And according to Gallup daily tracker Hillary's lead were at 10 points maximum. Among National Adults.
Right now it is Clinton +7 Smiley
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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: August 29, 2016, 01:34:38 pm »

Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2016, 01:36:16 pm »

Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)

Also means that there are more Clinton voters out there and a successful GOTV effort could add an additional 2%.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2016, 01:44:27 pm »

Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)

Also means that there are more Clinton voters out there and a successful GOTV effort could add an additional 2%.

Some speculation on twitter suggests that Clinton can add 2-3% to her final pop vote total by taking advantage of early voting and ground operations. My initial thought at the beginning of the election was Clinton by 10 and I think that's a pretty good indication of where we will be come November.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: August 29, 2016, 03:28:10 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #34 on: August 29, 2016, 03:31:14 pm »

Clinton will win Pa by 5-6 pts 46-40 enough to get Kate McGinty across. But, FL and OH are inconsistent.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2016, 03:39:14 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: August 29, 2016, 03:40:23 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Apples and oranges.  The Emerson polls are landline only; the Monmouth poll is a nearly 50-50 mix of landlines and cellphones.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2016, 04:52:30 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
Emerson's polls were their first general election polls of the cycle.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: August 29, 2016, 04:57:32 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
Emerson's polls were their first general election polls of the cycle.
I was sarcastic. But there's a grain of truth in every joke Wink
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dspNY
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« Reply #39 on: August 29, 2016, 05:03:58 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #40 on: August 29, 2016, 05:08:29 pm »

Update:

Today the new numbers arrived. Now it just 5 points difference in their favorability. Clinton is at 38/56 (her all-time-low was 37/58 and that is also Trump's all-time-high Grin) while Trump on 33/61.

So from C+10 for two weeks ago to C+5 Smiley will do

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #41 on: August 29, 2016, 05:10:06 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2016, 05:42:21 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.

They are also alluding that there will probably be a TV release tonight. I'm guessing Rachel Maddow will have it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2016, 05:50:57 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.

They are also alluding that there will probably be a TV release tonight. I'm guessing Rachel Maddow will have it.
Does it indicate some BREAKING NEWS?
Don't think so, but you cannot take away hope from me Grin
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #44 on: August 29, 2016, 06:25:16 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
Their latest poll showed Clinton +5 and was conducting directly after convention (JUL. 29-30)

So it depends on what they compared D-hapiness to. The state of the race or their latest poll.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #45 on: August 29, 2016, 06:27:46 pm »


What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.

Congratulations, President Neither!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #46 on: August 29, 2016, 07:41:33 pm »


What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.

Congratulations, President Neither!
None of the Above from "Brewster's Millions." A valid option in Nevada, IIRC.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #47 on: August 29, 2016, 08:06:43 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
Their latest poll showed Clinton +5 and was conducting directly after convention (JUL. 29-30)

So it depends on what they compared D-hapiness to. The state of the race or their latest poll.

PPP usually considers context. Anything below a 5-7% lead would disappoint. So I think 4-6% Clinton lead.
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