Monmouth National: Clinton +7
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April 10, 2021, 10:59:19 PM
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2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
Monmouth National: Clinton +7
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Topic: Monmouth National: Clinton +7 (Read 1743 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
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Posts: 11,240
Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
on:
August 29, 2016, 12:03:07 PM »
Clinton - 46%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 2%
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 42%
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
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Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #1 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:03:58 PM »
Here we go.
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Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 25,007
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #2 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:09:40 PM
by
Assemblyman Gass3268 »
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,426
Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #3 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:07:13 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:08:44 PM
by
heatcharger »
I guess this is proof the race has tightened a bit; their last poll had her up 13. Pretty good state of affairs going into Labor Day though.
Also looks like Johnson might have hit a wall; hasn't gained anything from their last national poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #4 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:07:42 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:09:27 PM
by
LittleBigPlanet »
Their latest poll
AUG. 4-7 Monmouth University
Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +13
So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #5 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:10:15 PM
by
LittleBigPlanet »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago
One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.
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Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #6 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:10:45 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 PM
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago
It matches the Quinnipiac poll and even though the convention boost has worn off, this race is still high single digits.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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Posts: 11,240
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #7 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:10:54 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:13:14 PM
by
Castro »
Also, horrible favorables for both candidates:
Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57
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Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 24,239
Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #8 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:11:42 PM »
Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.
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Gass3268
Moderators
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Posts: 25,007
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #9 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:11:48 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 PM
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago
I'll take a poll any day that still has Trump under 40% and still has Clinton over 45%.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,426
Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #10 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:11:51 PM »
Quote from: Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:10:54 PM
Also, horrible
approvals
favorables for both candidates:
Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57
Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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Posts: 11,240
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #11 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:12:59 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 29, 2016, 12:11:51 PM
Quote from: Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:10:54 PM
Also, horrible
approvals
favorables for both candidates:
Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57
Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.
Ah woops, I was tracking Obama's approval rating earlier and the words jumbled.
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F_S_USATN
Jr. Member
Posts: 303
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #12 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:15:38 PM »
Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
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dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,615
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #13 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:17:46 PM »
The +13 was always a little out of the norm...+7 is about right
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #14 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:17:51 PM »
Quote from: F_S_USATN on August 29, 2016, 12:15:38 PM
Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
State polls for levels, nationall polls for trends. Kind of
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Gass3268
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Posts: 25,007
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #15 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:18:32 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 29, 2016, 12:11:42 PM
Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.
Yup!
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #16 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:20:59 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:18:32 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 29, 2016, 12:11:42 PM
Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.
Yup!
Yes. It was approximately what LA times/other daily trackers were showing. But you didn't believe them.
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heatcharger
YaBB God
Posts: 4,426
Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #17 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:30:11 PM »
Lol at the gender gap:
Males: Trump 44%, Clinton 36%
Females: Clinton 50%, Trump 29%
Looks like angry American women will carry Clinton to victory.
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dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,615
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #18 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:35:57 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:37:31 PM
by
dspNY »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 PM
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago
One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.
Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #19 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:36:49 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 12:45:28 PM
by
Seriously? »
Quote
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Does that mean Monmouth actually admits to adjusting for self-ID D/R/I with this poll or are they talking about the recorded Party ID (not self-id) voter sample they should have gotten using random sampling from the voter list vs. what they drew from the poll?
E.G. When cross-referencing voter lists, Sample should be X% D, Y% R, Z% I from registration lists, but was A% D, B% R, C% I.
It was an R+2 sample, which ended up D+4 after the reweighs. Note that this is a question to some of you that are more versed at polling adjustments than I am, not a comment on the subject or the underlying polling itself.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #20 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:58:20 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 12:35:57 PM
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 PM
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 PM
Suck that Emerson!
I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago
One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.
Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
Kind of. Even if I think that the race is C+4-6 right now rather than C+6-8.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #21 on:
August 29, 2016, 12:59:14 PM »
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #22 on:
August 29, 2016, 01:01:18 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 01:05:52 PM
by
Seriously? »
Also note, they did poll the 2-way and LV vs. RV.
LV favors Trump by 2 points in 2-way, no effect in 4-way.
2-way RV (802 RV)
Clinton +9
Donald Trump 38% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 47% (-3)
Other 4% (--)
Undecided 7% (+1)
No one 4% (--)
2-way LV (689 LV)
Clinton +7
Donald Trump 42% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 49% (-5)
Other 4% (+1)
Undecided 5% (+2)
No one 0% (--)
4-way RV (802 RV)
Clinton +7
Donald Trump 36% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 43% (-3)
Gary Johnson 8% (+1)
Jill Stein 2% (--)
Other 1% (+1)
Undecided 7% (+1)
No one 4% (--)
4-way LV (689 LV)
Clinton +7
Donald Trump 39% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 46% (-4)
Gary Johnson 7% (--)
Jill Stein 2% (--)
Other 1% (+1)
Undecided 5% (+2)
No one 0% (--)
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #23 on:
August 29, 2016, 01:04:51 PM »
8.
As of today, Donald Trump has not released his taxes because he says they are going through a routine I.R.S. audit. Do you think he is keeping his taxes private because of the audit process or because there is something in those returns he doesn't want the public to know?
24% Because of the audit
52% Something he doesn't want the public to know
3% (VOL) Both
5% (VOL) Neither
16% (VOL) Don't know
10.
Do you think Hillary Clinton gave special treatment to big donors of the Clinton Foundation when she was Secretary of State or did she do nothing out of the ordinary in the way she treated them?
54% Special treatment
26% Nothing out of the ordinary
20% (VOL) Don't know
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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,294
Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
«
Reply #24 on:
August 29, 2016, 01:15:36 PM »
«
Edited:
August 29, 2016, 01:17:52 PM
by
psychprofessor »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 29, 2016, 12:59:14 PM
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
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