Ohio - Emerson Polling: TIE
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  Ohio - Emerson Polling: TIE
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Author Topic: Ohio - Emerson Polling: TIE  (Read 4054 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: August 29, 2016, 02:11:20 AM »

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/770147754639175680

Trump - 43
Clinton - 43
Johnson - 10
Stein - 2
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Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 02:25:27 AM »

Encouraging news.

Emerson College wasn't as terrible as I remembered in the primaries. Bloomberg has them just behind *gasp* Gravis at predicting the winner 94% of the time 15 of 16. (Gravis hit 18 of 19).

Emerson's margin miss was 7.2, which was right on par with Monmouth (7.3), but better than Marist (7.5)/Q (8.2).

With that said, 538 has them with a R+1.3 house effect and rates them a B- (for 2012).

Bloomberg Sourcing: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions?cmpid=yhoo.hosted
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 02:35:41 AM »

Good news for Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 04:32:55 AM »

Excuse me but since when Emerson polls became the gospel of truth?
These guys were among the worst during the primaries.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 06:21:12 AM »

Clinton doesn't have to win OH, but as OH goes so does the election. And Johnson won get 10, him and Stein will get 3-4%.
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Higgs
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 06:30:24 AM »

Clinton doesn't have to win OH, but as OH goes so does the election. And Johnson won get 10, him and Stein will get 3-4%.

You realize you just contradicted yourself?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2016, 06:32:36 AM »

Its a swing state, but CO and Pa are the ultimate bellwether.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2016, 06:38:21 AM »

Its a swing state, but CO and Pa are the ultimate bellwether.
Colorado? bahahaha
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2016, 09:49:14 AM »

If you love decimals or are Trump hack Grin
Trump +0.9

Trump 43,4%
Clinton 42,5%

Johnson 9,8%
Stein 2,1%
Undeciders 2,2%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2016, 10:34:04 AM »

Emerson is a very bad pollster.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 10:43:06 AM »

Very very very bad pollster, I'd say!
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dspNY
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2016, 11:07:07 AM »

Portman 40, Strickland 25 is straight junk though. Portman is leading but there aren't 35% undecided
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 11:19:22 AM »

Clinton's lead here is probably in the low-to-mid single digits. You'd expect a poll showing a tie, or even a small Trump lead, every once in a while.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2016, 11:25:15 AM »

These polls are junk. Look no further than the senate results. If more polls showed this much tighten and such an enormous swing toward Portman and Toomey, maybe they'd be believable, but this is Emerson we're talking about.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2016, 11:33:42 AM »

These polls are junk. Look no further than the senate results. If more polls showed this much tighten and such an enormous swing toward Portman and Toomey, maybe they'd be believable, but this is Emerson we're talking about.
This poll could have a Trump bias, but the only other recent OH "A" poll we have is Monmouth, so it's hard to tell Smiley
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2016, 11:42:41 AM »

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/770281511933341698
https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/770284111399362560

Republican Liam Donovan, who writes for the National Review, notes this is

1. Landline only
2. Weighted to 2012 results which researchers have noted is flawed as people don't like to admit voting for the loser http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/13/weight-polls-past-vote_n_3923178.html
3. They magically adjust their # for IVR conservative bias


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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 11:44:35 AM »

Wtf kind of weighting technique is this?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 11:48:55 AM »

Landline only polls in 2016 are trash. Not even worth discussing.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2016, 11:54:04 AM »

Uhm...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2016, 11:58:55 AM »

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This explains why they had that won NY Primary poll with Hillary in the 70's.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2016, 12:01:23 PM »

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Yeah... What the hell is this?
3 point? Wtf? How did they calculate it?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2016, 12:01:55 PM »

Yeesh... combining the worst of landlines with the worst weighting technique... and Hillary is still tied/ahead. Not as encouraging for Trump as first appeared.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2016, 01:05:41 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 01:22:55 PM by john cage bubblegum »

Wow, just looking at that methodology - absolute garbage pollster.
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dspNY
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2016, 01:07:45 PM »

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This explains why they had that won NY Primary poll with Hillary in the 70's.

Yup, they forgot that most voters under 35, which was a sanders demographic, do not have landlines
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2016, 01:09:22 PM »

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Yeah... What the hell is this?
3 point? Wtf? How did they calculate it?
They must have some academic research suggesting that kind of bias is my guess.
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