The Three Divides of French Electoral Geography (user search)
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  The Three Divides of French Electoral Geography (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Three Divides of French Electoral Geography  (Read 3236 times)
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,117


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« on: September 02, 2016, 01:29:16 PM »

Very interesting work, thanks.

First observations :
- Map B seems to me like a standard recent FN vote map. Does it differ from such a standard FN vote map somewhere ?
- Map C is more interesting to me. Corsica has its own explanation, for being... you know, Corsica. Other than that two main zones can be spotted : Île-de-France and the borders. Île-de-France abstains the most because of a) immigrants who don't want or don't know how or why to vote, and b) urban way of life with many young people and alternative types. The borders, on the other hand, may be abstaining more than the country as a whole because a number of French people there just work on the other side and their lives are more affected by what's going on on the other side, so they lose interest in French politics. Which would explain why zones such as Genève, Nice, Béarn, Forbach or Maubeuge, widely ranging on the socio-economic spectrum, all tend to abstain more than the country.


For what it's worth, the Genevois and Forbach both have very large immigrant populations as well; the darkest shade of brown on the Haute Savoie border with Geneva is Annemasse, which is very diverse.

On a sort of tangent, is there any reason that so many of the old rural centre-right strongholds have moved to the left in recent decades. I believe the secularisation of Catholic areas has been behind areas like Brittany becoming staunchly on the left, and places like Cantal trending left as well, but there must be some other driving factor, as you wouldn't normally expect rural areas to go left?
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,117


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2016, 12:23:56 PM »


I don't think Var (and the rest of Côte d'Azur)'s rightward trend should mainly be ascribed to a change in issue salience. What changed first and foremost is the département itself - it went from a largely rural area of small landowners to a sprawly tourist-dominated abomination. And let's not forget about the pieds-noirs.

I think so. Outside of the Mediterranean basin, a lot of the old anti-clerical left wing strongholds have stayed that way, notably the Pyrenees and the South West. Aude has trended right, but Ariege and the Hautes Pyrenees are still two of the most reliably left wing departments in the country.
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