FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton +2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:13:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton +2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton +2  (Read 1821 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


« on: August 26, 2016, 10:43:27 AM »

Clinton is taking 10% Republicans against Trump's 78%. He needs to win back his own party to get the lead.

Also, it's looking likely that the Monmouth D+9 poll is an outlier. Everyone else is showing a 2% - 5% lead.

For Donald Trump to get elected, several things must go right for him.

1. He must get the majority of votes among new voters. Not happening.

2. He must make net gains among existing voters. Not happening; in fact I am tempted to believe that there will be far more Romney-to-Clinton voters than Obama-to-Trump voters.

3. People not voting this time must have in the majority voted for the nominee on the other side.  Trump might be on that, if only because Obama had an edge among 'all voters' in 2012. But that is slight.

4. Third-Party and independent voters must be going to Trump in huge numbers. Third Party nominees did not figure much in 2012. Contrast 2000, when a majority of Perot voters of 1996 went to George W. Bush.

5. Third Party nominees must be getting their votes largely from the opposite side of the spectrum from Trump. Not happening.

6. A scandal must break, the economy needs to go into a recession lasting at least six months, or some diplomatic calamity must have happened long enough before the election to not give the Incumbent and his Party the "Rally around the Flag" effect. President Obama isn't scandal prone, and time has run out for the other possibilities. It took several months after the Stock Market Crash of 1929 for American economy was in trouble.

Hillary Clinton will win Florida, and she will win the Presidency. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 14 queries.