FL-icitizen: Clinton +5
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  FL-icitizen: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: FL-icitizen: Clinton +5  (Read 1952 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: August 26, 2016, 10:25:02 AM »

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2016, 10:26:32 AM »

I'm not familiar with them, so I assume this is probably junk. The numbers for Prez and senate look plausible, though.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2016, 10:27:26 AM »

It did somehow raised Trump chances in 538's polls-only model [insignificantly] from 16.9% to 17.1%. Huh May be because of their quick simulation algorithm...
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2016, 10:31:55 AM »

Demographics make sense (64% white, 18% Hispanic, 13% African-American)

Party ID is also in the ballpark, even slightly more republican/independent than the state (31D/31R/37I) when the traditional party ID is around D+2 or D+3 with far fewer independents.

It's definitely clear that Clinton has a persistent edge in FL
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2016, 10:33:04 AM »

The kind of number that should continue to eat away at the Trump campaign is his "would you even consider this candidate?" numbers. 52% in this poll say they will simply not even think about it. Hard to win elections that way.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2016, 10:35:32 AM »

It did somehow raised Trump chances in 538's polls-only model [insignificantly] from 16.9% to 17.1%. Huh May be because of their quick simulation algorithm...

Weirdly, it only appears on the updates tab, not the Florida tab. I wonder if that's an error in the model or an error in the online table.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2016, 10:38:41 AM »

I've never heard of this company
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 10:39:11 AM »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2016, 10:42:40 AM »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.

Demographics, party ID, regional breakdown and methodology look sound though
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2016, 10:57:48 AM »

They've done polls of Tennessee, Oregon and nationally so far. Nothing has looked ridiculously out of place and the methodology is sound. We'll see how they perform on election day.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2016, 11:34:40 AM »

At least for the Presidential poll results.. everything looks in line. Like IndyRep, I am skeptical of the Senate numbers.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2016, 11:40:36 AM »

The presidential results are probably in the +3 to +6 for Clinton range, but I'm also skeptical of the senate numbers.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2016, 11:41:29 AM »

The margins for both races are plausible, though the cross-tabs are screwy. As I've said in other threads, it seems like there's a lack of consensus in Florida polling right now.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2016, 01:37:26 PM »

The margins for both races are plausible, though the cross-tabs are screwy. As I've said in other threads, it seems like there's a lack of consensus in Florida polling right now.

The consensus is that Clinton is leading - the question is, is it by low single digits or higher?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2016, 01:47:02 PM »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.

Demographics, party ID, regional breakdown and methodology look sound though

Yep, no reason to ignore it. It looks reasonable enough.
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2016, 10:57:38 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by Other Source on 2016-08-24

Summary: D: 42%, R: 37%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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