FL-Mason-Dixon: Murphy and Rubio lead big in primaries, Rubio +3 in general

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.

I can't speak for others, but the reason why I still have FL as a Toss-Up is the primary hasn't happened yet. Remember how Begich looked okay for much of 2014, then after the primary he quickly lost his lead and never recovered?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.

The biggest difference is of course, Florida is a competitive state. New Hampshire is not.

^This. Rating NH lean or tilt D and pretending that the race will be competitive is stupid, just like it was in 2012 and 2014. I generally agree with ElectionsGuy, though.

The distinction depends on your definition of competitive. If Hassan wins by 3 to 6 percent, yeah I'd call it a competitive race. I'd call ANY race with that sort of margin competitive.