Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States

[dspNY]

LOL no. Just throw everything Reuters/Ipsos does in the trash regardless of who it favors

[dspNY]

Update:

Maine: Trump 42%, Clinton 42%
New Hampshire: Clinton 44%, Trump 45%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 42%
Ohio: Clinton 43%, Trump 46%
Michigan: Clinton 41%, Trump 42%
Wisconsin: Clinton 38%,  Trump 38%
Virginia: Clinton 50%, Trump 37%
Florida: Clinton 48, Trump 45%
Iowa: Clinton 41%, Trump 44%
North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 44%
Colorado: Clinton 45%, Trump 39%

Clinton: 273 EV
Trump: 182 EV

Adjust those numbers for 60% white male non-college turnout instead of the unrealistic 70% that Reuters is using and those numbers fall right in line with expectations. I'll demonstrate in another post

[dspNY]

OK, I dialed in these turnout projections:

White male: 63%
White female: 66%
Black male: 55%
Black female: 75%
Hispanic male: 45%
Hispanic female: 55%

and got these numbers in the swing states and marginal swing states:

Arizona: Trump 44, Clinton 42
Colorado: Clinton 45, Trump 38
Florida: Clinton 49, Trump 43
Georgia: Clinton 45, Trump 44
Iowa: Trump 44, Clinton 43
Maine: Clinton 43, Trump 41
Michigan: Clinton 43, Trump 40
Minnesota: Clinton 43, Trump 33
Missouri: Trump 49, Clinton 37
Nevada: Clinton 46, Trump 32
New Hampshire: Trump 46, Clinton 43
North Carolina: Clinton 51, Trump 42
Ohio: Clinton 45, Trump 45
Pennsylvania: Clinton 49, Trump 41
Virginia: Clinton 51, Trump 37
Wisconsin: Clinton 38, Trump 38

So still some weakness for Clinton in northern rust belt states but greater strength in states with more African Americans

[dspNY]

This model has white turnout at 69%, African-American turnout at 56% and Hispanic turnout at 32%. That is never happening. Even in 2012, when GWB won by 2.5%, white turnout was 67.2%, African-American turnout was 60% and Hispanic turnout was 47.2%. Hispanic turnout is expected to spike dramatically this election to at worst 55% (and in the mock turnout model I used, I had Hispanic turnout at 50%). African-American turnout will also remain high, well north of 60%

[dspNY]

Tuning those numbers to likely turnout percentages, you get an easy Clinton win. Their African-American and Hispanic turnout numbers are very low and they still have Clinton winning

[dspNY]

Reuters/Ipsos State of the Nation poll: 10/20

Looking a lot less junky (except for Washington State). Color scheme in Atlas red/blue

Alabama: 52-38 Trump
Alaska: No data
Arizona: 45-43 Trump, too close to call
Arkansas: 53-34 Trump
California: 64-26 Clinton
Colorado: 45-41 Clinton
Connecticut: 53-35 Clinton
Delaware: 48-34 Clinton
DC: No data, but expected to go to Clinton
Florida: 48-44 Clinton
Georgia: 49-41 Trump
Hawaii: Clinton, margin uncertain
Idaho: 51-35 Trump
Illinois: 57-28 Clinton
Indiana: 49-38 Trump
Iowa: 46-43 Clinton
Kansas: 50-38 Trump
Kentucky: 52-41 Trump
Louisiana: 51-35 Trump
Maine: 48-39 Clinton
Maryland: 53-29 Clinton
Massachusetts: 57-25 Clinton
Michigan: 45-41 Clinton
Minnesota: 44-32 Clinton
Mississippi: 52-37 Trump
Missouri: 48-37 Trump
Montana: 51-32 Trump
Nebraska: 47-35 Trump
Nevada: 48-43 Clinton
New Hampshire: 45-39 Clinton
New Jersey: 53-32 Clinton
New Mexico: 51-35 Clinton
New York: 54-30 Clinton
North Carolina: 47-43 Clinton
North Dakota: Trump, margin uncertain
Ohio: 43-43 tie
Oklahoma: 51-36 Trump
Oregon: 46-37 Clinton
Pennsylvania: 49-39 Clinton
Rhode Island: Insufficient data, expected to go to Clinton
South Carolina: 51-44 Trump
South Dakota: 50-33 Trump
Tennessee: 44-35 Trump
Texas: 52-39 Trump
Utah: 41-29 Trump* No McMullin
Vermont: Clinton, margin uncertain
Virginia: 49-37 Clinton
Washington: 46-42 Clinton
West Virginia: 56-39 Trump
Wisconsin: 45-42 Clinton
Wyoming: Insufficient data, expected to go to Trump

[dspNY]

Reuters State of the Nation polls, October 27:

National: Clinton 47, Trump 40

Alabama: Trump 51, Clinton 39
Alaska: Insufficient data, likely to go GOP
Arizona: Clinton 43, Trump 42
Arkansas: Trump 53, Clinton 34
California: Clinton 65, Trump 26
Colorado: Clinton 46, Trump 43
Connecticut: Clinton 51, Trump 36
Delaware: Clinton 48, Trump 36
DC: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Florida: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Trump 48, Clinton 43
Hawaii: High confidence Clinton, margin uncertain
Idaho: Trump 54, Clinton 30
Illinois: Clinton 56, Trump 35
Indiana: Trump 54, Clinton 39
Iowa: Clinton 44, Trump 42
Kansas: Trump 52, Clinton 38
Kentucky: Trump 56, Clinton 38
Louisiana: Trump 53, Clinton 34
Maine: Clinton 46, Trump 39
Maryland: Clinton 54, Trump 34
Massachusetts: Clinton 56, Trump 27
Michigan: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Minnesota: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Mississippi: Trump 52, Clinton 33
Missouri: Trump 48, Clinton 42
Montana: Trump 48, Clinton 32
Nebraska: Trump 50, Clinton 35
Nevada: Clinton 40, Trump 40
New Hampshire: Clinton 44, Trump 40
New Jersey: Clinton 51, Trump 34
New Mexico: Clinton 49, Trump 39
New York: Clinton 52, Trump 30
North Carolina: Clinton 48, Trump 44
North Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Ohio: Clinton 45, Trump 45
Oklahoma: Trump 52, Clinton 36
Oregon: Clinton 46, Trump 38
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48, Trump 46
Rhode Island: Insufficient data, will go Dem
South Carolina: Trump 49, Clinton 44
South Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Tennessee: Trump 43, Clinton 35
Texas: Trump 48, Clinton 34
Utah: Trump 44, Clinton 31 (no McMullin option)
Vermont: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Virginia: Clinton 48, Trump 39
Washington: Clinton 47, Trump 37
West Virginia: Trump 56, Clinton 37
Wisconsin: Clinton 47, Trump 42
Wyoming: Insufficient data, will go GOP