But 538 already was pretty good for Trump, giving him about 20% chance of winning.
A 1 in 5 chance of winning is pretty good?
I assume he means in comparison to other models, which have Clinton anywhere from 87% to 99% at present (see the Upshot page at
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html for a summary about halfway down the page). 538 is more bullish on Trump because they have more uncertainty built into their model; when you're behind, uncertainty is a good thing because you want things to change.
