Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States

[Dr. Arch]

LOL at ME, MI, WI, WY, NM, NH, and MO.

[Dr. Arch]

It saddens me that Nate included this into the 538 model because it threw everything on a wack.

[Dr. Arch]

#TossUp Wyoming

[Dr. Arch]

According to 538 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#plus, it looks like Ipsos has made another results dump ranging from Aug26-Sept1. Here are the states ranked by lead order; take it as you may:

D States:
CA: C+38
NY: C+22
MD: C+20
MA: C+16
IL: C+13
VA: C+13
NJ: C+11
WA: C+10
MN: C+9
CT: C+8
NV: C+8
PA: C+6
CO: C+6
NC: C+5
OR: C+5
FL: C+4

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ States:
ME: C+1
MI: T+1
NH: T+1
WI: T+1
UT: T+1

R States:
IA: T+3
OH: T+3
AZ: T+3
SC: T+3
AR: T+5
KY: T+5
GA: T+6
NE: T+7
OK: T+12
AL: T+12
MO: T+15
KS: T+15
WV: T+17
TX: T+17
TN: T+18
LA: T+20
IN: T+24
MS: T+28
ID: T+30

[Dr. Arch]

#OH right of UT

[Dr. Arch]

This man is like a rampant child with no adult supervision.

[Dr. Arch]

"Only NM,"

-looks at WI and CO-

lol

[Dr. Arch]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

Answer in bold.

[Dr. Arch]

New numbers:

Pennsylvania: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Ohio: 47% Clinton, 44% Trump
Florida: 50% Trump, 46% Clinton
Colorado: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
New Mexico: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
Nevada: 41% Trump, 38% Clinton
Michigan: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton
Wisconsin: 43% Clinton, 40% Trump
Maine: 41% Clinton, 40% Trump
North Carolina: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Iowa: 49% Trump, 41% Clinton

Apparently, Trump is leading in Vermont. lol

Trump: 243 EV
Clinton: 242 EV

Did they not poll Latinos?

This is pretty much exactly what I thought as well. It seems like these polls are actually very consistent, if you HEAVILY undersample the Latino vote. That would account for NM (the most Hispanic state) being where it is, as well as NV, CO, and even FL.

[Dr. Arch]

Wait, they're projecting that Hispanic turnout will go down!? Hah! They're in for a rude awakening.

[Dr. Arch]

Wait, they're projecting that Hispanic turnout will go down!? Hah! They're in for a rude awakening.

You think, Hispanics [and Whites] lie? As far as I know, the answers to the questions ("Will you vote Nov 8?" and "How enthusiastic are you about the election?") are the most important to decide likelihood.

Listen, Trump has literally targeted Hispanics with his rhetoric. From my communication with Hispanic leaders all over my state and with friends and family in places like Florida and New York, the sentiment is not that of passing on voting, but on stopping Trump cold. If you think a community that's being threatened at a national level will not turn out more than in times that they weren't, then you don't understand or you just don't want to consider it, plain and simple.

More to consider, polls in places like FL aren't taking into account the large population influx of Puerto Rican Hispanics who vote overwhelmingly D. You can go to the FL poll thread that I elaborated more on this if you want more information.

Lastly, I remember reading on this forum even that Hispanic voter registration has skyrocketed in places like Colorado and Nevada.

The same applies to African-Americans, who have now been reminded of Trump's birtherism once more (those that forgot). Hillary is well-known and trusted among this community, and Obama is on the trail campaigning for her. I doubt voter turnout there will be suppressed much either.

If they project lower turnout in light of all this, they're not going to get a good screen and so their topline numbers and projections will suffer.

[Dr. Arch]

Link? Info? Either way, Trump isn't winning either MI or WI, period.

[Dr. Arch]

It's part of their 50-state "poll"/analysis.

Makes sense. Junk.

[Dr. Arch]

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?