NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« on: August 25, 2016, 08:03:22 PM » |
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So, I think we can all agree that at this point Arizona looks like a lean R state?
The last two polls were from A- pollsters of LVs and basically both show AZ as a Trump +6-7 state.
YouGov poll (B pollster) looks like an outlier showing it virtually tied in a state with a large chunk of retirees.
I think it's safe to say that the SoCal retirees are coming home to Trump in his strongest demographic (Anglos 50+) and regardless of the growing Latino population at this point we aren't yet seeing any polling evidence that there is a large enough offset from younger voters to counter Trump's advantage with retirees.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump win AZ in November, and I suspect it will be a little closer than expected, but not sure if it is worthy of a Clinton campaign investment at this point, considering resourcing and down-ballots in MO and demographics in GA.
NC looks more like we might expect in a +6-7 Clinton National Lead with NC being somewhere around a +2-4 Clinton Lead statewide with multiple average A pollsters...
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