NC-Monmouth: Burr +2

[JMT]

Race is approaching (if not already at) tossup territory. I have a feeling that Ross '16 will be a redux of Hagan '08; a relatively anonymous Dem state legislator, who was considered a mediocre recruit without much of a chance at winning, starts polling very competitively just months before election day and pulls out a win over the Republican incumbent.

I agree with this. I think Ross will end up winning, very similar to Hagan's win in 2008.

[JMT]

You have to wonder how would Kay Hagan be doing right now if she's running again Burr.

RIP

As much as I love her, I always said Democrats should run a fresh face this time. Her numbers were just too damaged from the 2014 campaign.

Hagan rematch 2020?

Wouldn't be surprised if Hagan tries again in 2020. I think Tillis will be quite vulnerable and Hagan could probably defeat him. And that'll be 6 years after her defeat, so any negative feelings about her may be forgotten. I think that's why Hagan didn't run this year, she's waiting for 2020. I think nominating Ross was a good choice, a fresh face against a relatively bland senator. Ross was never considered a star recruit, but I think that ended up being a positive thing for Democrats