Utah-PPP: Trump +15 (user search)
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  Utah-PPP: Trump +15 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Utah-PPP: Trump +15  (Read 5891 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: August 25, 2016, 05:18:21 AM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.

15% is a pretty commanding lead. Not to say that it couldn't get closer, but I think it's over for now. Utah will still be a very fascinating state this November though. It does not reflect well on Trump though. Granted Romney was a perfect fit for Utah, but polling over 30% lower than Romney is a testament to how bad of a candidate Trump is for Utah. The third party share is staggering though. 25% saying that they'll vote for a smattering of candidates. Wow. I doubt that the total on Election Day will be quite that high, but it will still probably be 20% or so. Glad to see Stein at 1%.

Not sure about McMuffin to be honest. I'm rather surprised to see him polling this high. He definitely puts the state out of reach for Johnson. If McMuffin gets any kind of airtime or attention, he could get 10% on Election Day.

"It's over for now" is a tad self-contradictory, no?

Anyway, comparing Trump to Romney here might be a tad unfair, but McCain got 62% here, and Bush '04 got 72%. A Trump result of >30, win or not, would still be a hilarious swing.

The weird thing is that Clinton is opening a campaign office in SLC today which her campaign is touting heavily as an indication that Utah is competitive. They wouldn't just open a campaign office in blood red Utah to defeat Mia Love, so their internal polls are indicating a narrower margin than what PPP is saying. Remember that Robby Mook was very frugal during the primary so he's not opening any campaign offices just to waste time

At this point, downballot considerations should be the main concern for the Clinton campaign, so Mia Love likely factored into the decision.
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