Utah-PPP: Trump +15
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Author Topic: Utah-PPP: Trump +15  (Read 5894 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2016, 11:32:39 AM »

Democrats
Clinton 77%
Johnson 7%
Trump 7%
McMullin 2%
Stein 2%
Castle 1%

Republicans
Trump 56%
McMullin 11%
Johnson 9%
Clinton 6%
Castle 3%
Stein 0%

Independents
Trump 27%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 20%
McMullin 9%
Castle 3%
Stein 1%

Oh, and Trump wins voters under 30:

Trump 31%
Clinton 22%
Johnson 15%
Castle 9%
McMullin 6%
Stein 2%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2016, 11:36:43 AM »

When more Mormons are voting for McMullin than Hillary and Johnson.

McMuffin is a fellow cultist.

With a median age of 30, Utah is the youngest state in the country.

I think that's Alaska.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2016, 11:41:18 AM »

Well, so much for that. The flippable Romney states are North Carolina, Arizona, and maybe Georgia.

South Carolina?
South Carolina? How? Whites are outgrowing Blacks in that state, and it is far less educated and urbanized. It's by FAR the best fit for Trump of all the states on the Atlantic.

Then why do polls show it close and why do demographics back this up? If Hillary's lead grows to 8 or 9 by election day, South Carolina will be flipping.

It's got a lot of white educated voters, plus a sizable black electorate, so I agree that it has the potential to flip. If Clinton is going to put an office in a red state, South Carolina should come in ahead of Utah.
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dspNY
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« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2016, 11:49:18 AM »

I liked this race better when #BattlegroundUtah was a thing
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heatcharger
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« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2016, 11:54:21 AM »

I still kinda can't believe that people thought this was going to be competitive...

A SurveyUSA poll back in June had the race tied. That's why there was a lot of intrigue.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2016, 12:00:51 PM »

Open those offices, Hillary and get down to campaigning in Utah!

#battlegroundutah was fun while it lasted, but you should be embarrassed your nominee is only pulling in 39% in Utah.
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Vosem
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« Reply #31 on: August 23, 2016, 12:13:54 PM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2016, 12:17:08 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2016, 12:31:49 PM by Eraserhead »

Yeah, if she's not even close in a poll that includes three alternative candidates for Republicans, that's game over.

It's still an awful result for Trump though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #33 on: August 23, 2016, 12:29:43 PM »

it's pretty obvious this would happen - but it's still hilarious that a state Romney won by nearly 50 points is only being won by 15-20 for Trump. That's a huge flip.
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Skye
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« Reply #34 on: August 23, 2016, 12:47:34 PM »

Eh, McMullin probably isn't going to get nowhere near 9%.

Also, lol @ the 12/84 rating of Hillary with Mormons.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #35 on: August 23, 2016, 01:31:51 PM »

     I never heard of this McMullin fellow before. This is hilarious.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2016, 01:47:50 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2016, 01:51:16 PM by Vox Populi »

r/The_Donald celebrating being up by 15 in Utah

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/4z7oao/poll_trump_leads_clinton_by_15_in_utah/

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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2016, 01:50:59 PM »

Well, so much for that. The flippable Romney states are North Carolina, Arizona, and maybe Georgia.

Don't forget Missouri! Look at that new Monmouth poll Cheesy
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #38 on: August 23, 2016, 02:07:46 PM »

BREAKING NEWS: FATHER COMSTOCK TAKES THE LEAD IN LATEST UTAH POLL
Comstock: 69%
Johnson: 20%
Trump: 6%
McMuffin: 4%
Stein: 1%
Clinton: 0%

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #39 on: August 23, 2016, 03:30:12 PM »

Did people actually think Clinton had any chance?
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2016, 03:50:24 PM »

I liked this race better when #BattlegroundUtah was a thing

Right? Me too!
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136or142
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« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2016, 03:58:27 PM »

I was also going to mention Missouri.  The polling also shows that if Hillary Clinton wins enough of a landslide that she could win Texas and Kansas.  There are also a few mostly small states that haven't been polled that could be competitive in a Hillary Clinton landslide (roughly a 10% victory) Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota.

I think the move towards Utah being a solid Trump state is nothing more than Republicans coming home.
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Xing
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« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2016, 03:59:08 PM »

Well, so much for that. The flippable Romney states are North Carolina, Arizona, and maybe Georgia.

South Carolina?
South Carolina? How? Whites are outgrowing Blacks in that state, and it is far less educated and urbanized. It's by FAR the best fit for Trump of all the states on the Atlantic.

Then why do polls show it close and why do demographics back this up? If Hillary's lead grows to 8 or 9 by election day, South Carolina will be flipping.

Shhh, it's supposed to be a surprise when Hillary wins South Carolina and South Dakota.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #43 on: August 23, 2016, 04:09:47 PM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.

15% is a pretty commanding lead. Not to say that it couldn't get closer, but I think it's over for now. Utah will still be a very fascinating state this November though. It does not reflect well on Trump though. Granted Romney was a perfect fit for Utah, but polling over 30% lower than Romney is a testament to how bad of a candidate Trump is for Utah. The third party share is staggering though. 25% saying that they'll vote for a smattering of candidates. Wow. I doubt that the total on Election Day will be quite that high, but it will still probably be 20% or so. Glad to see Stein at 1%.

Not sure about McMuffin to be honest. I'm rather surprised to see him polling this high. He definitely puts the state out of reach for Johnson. If McMuffin gets any kind of airtime or attention, he could get 10% on Election Day.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #44 on: August 23, 2016, 04:15:41 PM »

MCMULLMENTUM!
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #45 on: August 23, 2016, 04:15:42 PM »

New Poll: Utah President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-08-21

Summary: D: 24%, R: 39%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #46 on: August 23, 2016, 04:16:27 PM »

The message this poll should send to the Clinton campaign isn't "contest Utah."  It's "help get McMullin onto the Arizona ballot ASAP!"

That's a very good point. Even a percent or two could make the difference.
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Vosem
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« Reply #47 on: August 23, 2016, 04:32:24 PM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.

15% is a pretty commanding lead. Not to say that it couldn't get closer, but I think it's over for now. Utah will still be a very fascinating state this November though. It does not reflect well on Trump though. Granted Romney was a perfect fit for Utah, but polling over 30% lower than Romney is a testament to how bad of a candidate Trump is for Utah. The third party share is staggering though. 25% saying that they'll vote for a smattering of candidates. Wow. I doubt that the total on Election Day will be quite that high, but it will still probably be 20% or so. Glad to see Stein at 1%.

Not sure about McMuffin to be honest. I'm rather surprised to see him polling this high. He definitely puts the state out of reach for Johnson. If McMuffin gets any kind of airtime or attention, he could get 10% on Election Day.

"It's over for now" is a tad self-contradictory, no?

Anyway, comparing Trump to Romney here might be a tad unfair, but McCain got 62% here, and Bush '04 got 72%. A Trump result of >30, win or not, would still be a hilarious swing.
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dspNY
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« Reply #48 on: August 23, 2016, 04:39:35 PM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.

15% is a pretty commanding lead. Not to say that it couldn't get closer, but I think it's over for now. Utah will still be a very fascinating state this November though. It does not reflect well on Trump though. Granted Romney was a perfect fit for Utah, but polling over 30% lower than Romney is a testament to how bad of a candidate Trump is for Utah. The third party share is staggering though. 25% saying that they'll vote for a smattering of candidates. Wow. I doubt that the total on Election Day will be quite that high, but it will still probably be 20% or so. Glad to see Stein at 1%.

Not sure about McMuffin to be honest. I'm rather surprised to see him polling this high. He definitely puts the state out of reach for Johnson. If McMuffin gets any kind of airtime or attention, he could get 10% on Election Day.

"It's over for now" is a tad self-contradictory, no?

Anyway, comparing Trump to Romney here might be a tad unfair, but McCain got 62% here, and Bush '04 got 72%. A Trump result of >30, win or not, would still be a hilarious swing.

The weird thing is that Clinton is opening a campaign office in SLC today which her campaign is touting heavily as an indication that Utah is competitive. They wouldn't just open a campaign office in blood red Utah to defeat Mia Love, so their internal polls are indicating a narrower margin than what PPP is saying. Remember that Robby Mook was very frugal during the primary so he's not opening any campaign offices just to waste time
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #49 on: August 23, 2016, 04:47:49 PM »

15 might be a solid lead if it was 54-39, but 39-24 with well over a third of the electorate either still undecided or pulling the third-party lever, and a solid chunk of the 39% having a negative view of that candidate, cannot by any means be called Safe. "Battleground Utah" is still a thing.

15% is a pretty commanding lead. Not to say that it couldn't get closer, but I think it's over for now. Utah will still be a very fascinating state this November though. It does not reflect well on Trump though. Granted Romney was a perfect fit for Utah, but polling over 30% lower than Romney is a testament to how bad of a candidate Trump is for Utah. The third party share is staggering though. 25% saying that they'll vote for a smattering of candidates. Wow. I doubt that the total on Election Day will be quite that high, but it will still probably be 20% or so. Glad to see Stein at 1%.

Not sure about McMuffin to be honest. I'm rather surprised to see him polling this high. He definitely puts the state out of reach for Johnson. If McMuffin gets any kind of airtime or attention, he could get 10% on Election Day.

"It's over for now" is a tad self-contradictory, no?

Anyway, comparing Trump to Romney here might be a tad unfair, but McCain got 62% here, and Bush '04 got 72%. A Trump result of >30, win or not, would still be a hilarious swing.

The weird thing is that Clinton is opening a campaign office in SLC today which her campaign is touting heavily as an indication that Utah is competitive. They wouldn't just open a campaign office in blood red Utah to defeat Mia Love, so their internal polls are indicating a narrower margin than what PPP is saying. Remember that Robby Mook was very frugal during the primary so he's not opening any campaign offices just to waste time

I would also imagine that there is a significant amount of "soft Trump" support within that 39% as well, although I didn't see PPP ask those questions.
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