DOMINATING!
Looks like we've got 4-5 pickups already nailed down.
By the election day, I expect all but maybe 1 or 2 of the Senate races to break to the Democrats in the end.
I'm assuming you mean competitive senate races, not all senate races. Democrats are not winning AR, ID, AL, SD, etc.
Using the races I see as at least somewhat competitive, you'll have to get pretty lucky. IL, IN, WI, NH are clearly leaning your direction, but looking at the rest:
FL - I'm reserving any sort of YUGE judgment on this race until after the primary, but as of right now, Rubio appears to have an edge.
OH - Strickland is clearly the next Tommy Thompson/Bruce Braley. If Clinton wins by 8 or 10 points in Ohio he may be dragged in, but right now it looks like Trump will keep things decently close in OH, or perhaps even win it.
PA - While McGinty is certainly doing surprisingly well, the fact is she is running roughly 6 points behind Clinton (in terms of margin). If PA looks like it did in 2012 at the top (which is a perfectly reasonable scenario), I think Toomey can still pull it off. Barely, but still.
NC - Deborah Ross is a C-lister. I know that's not a disqualifier in NC, but still.
AZ - McCain has his toughest challenge of his senate career, yes, but as long as Trump carries the state by more than a point or two he should be okay. There won't be that many Trump/Kirkpatrick voters.
MO - B-lister in a state trending against your party. Enough said.
LA - I honestly don't know what's going on here. Very foolish to count on this race.
IA - I moved this out of Safe out of an abundance of caution, but all the evidence we have shows that while Grassley is getting something of a scare, he's in little danger of actually losing.
Getting 6/8 of the above (assuming you hold NV) sounds like a pipe dream.
