Senate Majority PAC (D): Bayh up 18 in Indiana
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:39:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 Senatorial Election Polls
  Senate Majority PAC (D): Bayh up 18 in Indiana
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Senate Majority PAC (D): Bayh up 18 in Indiana  (Read 33470 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 22, 2016, 12:13:41 PM »

Evan Bayh - 54%
Todd Young - 36%

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/292213-new-poll-shows-bayh-with-18-point-lead
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2016, 12:15:56 PM »

Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him. I think the Monmouth poll is more accurate, it's probably Bayh +7 right now. Young should pound hard on the residence issue, and also air positive ads about him. In the end this race will be VERY close.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2016, 12:30:09 PM »

Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him.

Because they are internals.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2016, 12:32:06 PM »

I believe it's more in the +10-+12 category.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2016, 12:37:11 PM »

Even if you chopped his lead in half, +9 is still excellent.
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2016, 12:43:36 PM »

Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him. I think the Monmouth poll is more accurate, it's probably Bayh +7 right now. Young should pound hard on the residence issue, and also air positive ads about him. In the end this race will be VERY close.

Considering the nature of Indiana polling I'd take internals and lack of response from the GOP than the Monmouth.  At the rate of GOP fundraising as of late imo, the GOP should triage this race
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2016, 01:38:33 PM »


Agreed. The Monmouth sample looked pretty R-friendly even for Indiana. Internals obviously have a skew.
Logged
JMT
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2016, 04:05:12 PM »


I agree, and that's pretty impressive for a Democrat in Indiana running against a credible Republican opponent. That's why I think this is a lean D seat, Bayh wins in November
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2016, 04:33:37 PM »

DOMINATING!

Looks like we've got 4-5 pickups already nailed down.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2016, 04:54:31 PM »

DOMINATING!

Looks like we've got 4-5 pickups already nailed down.

By the election day, I expect all but maybe 1 or 2 of the Senate races to break to the Democrats in the end.

Personally, I expect Ohio and Florida to be the two that don't break Democratic.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2016, 05:31:49 PM »

DOMINATING!

Looks like we've got 4-5 pickups already nailed down.

By the election day, I expect all but maybe 1 or 2 of the Senate races to break to the Democrats in the end.

I'm assuming you mean competitive senate races, not all senate races. Democrats are not winning AR, ID, AL, SD, etc.

Using the races I see as at least somewhat competitive, you'll have to get pretty lucky. IL, IN, WI, NH are clearly leaning your direction, but looking at the rest:

FL - I'm reserving any sort of YUGE judgment on this race until after the primary, but as of right now, Rubio appears to have an edge.

OH - Strickland is clearly the next Tommy Thompson/Bruce Braley. If Clinton wins by 8 or 10 points in Ohio he may be dragged in, but right now it looks like Trump will keep things decently close in OH, or perhaps even win it.

PA - While McGinty is certainly doing surprisingly well, the fact is she is running roughly 6 points behind Clinton (in terms of margin). If PA looks like it did in 2012 at the top (which is a perfectly reasonable scenario), I think Toomey can still pull it off. Barely, but still.

NC - Deborah Ross is a C-lister. I know that's not a disqualifier in NC, but still.

AZ - McCain has his toughest challenge of his senate career, yes, but as long as Trump carries the state by more than a point or two he should be okay. There won't be that many Trump/Kirkpatrick voters.

MO - B-lister in a state trending against your party. Enough said.

LA - I honestly don't know what's going on here. Very foolish to count on this race.

IA - I moved this out of Safe out of an abundance of caution, but all the evidence we have shows that while Grassley is getting something of a scare, he's in little danger of actually losing.

Getting 6/8 of the above (assuming you hold NV) sounds like a pipe dream.

Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2016, 11:33:09 PM »

Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him. I think the Monmouth poll is more accurate, it's probably Bayh +7 right now. Young should pound hard on the residence issue, and also air positive ads about him. In the end this race will be VERY close.

Considering the nature of Indiana polling I'd take internals and lack of response from the GOP than the Monmouth.  At the rate of GOP fundraising as of late imo, the GOP should triage this race

That would be stupid. It is one of the few D leaning competitive seats, that is not likely going to be running up against a steep Presidential margin in the opposite direction.

You don't triage one of your easiest paths to keeping your current majority. If I was the NRSC, come October, I would be pouring most of the resources into IN, PA, AZ and NC (assuming Burr doesn't get his a## in gear before then).
Logged
RRusso1982
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 09:21:48 AM »

I have the perfect issue for Todd Young to pound Evan Bayh on.  Hillary Clinton is going to win.  No matter how moderate Evan Bayh is, his first vote in the Senate will be for a Democratic Majority Leader.  Do you Indiana voters really want to give Hillary Clinton a blank check?
Logged
Leahy16
Newbie
*
Posts: 4
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2016, 10:00:04 AM »

Wow this looks safe d good
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2016, 10:34:02 AM »


Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2016, 12:29:07 PM »


Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.


Agreed,

I need to see a non-party internal before I make any judgement on this race.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 12:39:12 PM »


Agreed,

I need to see a non-party internal before I make any judgement on this race.

There was a Monmouth poll few weeks back that had Bayh +7. You should note there won't be too many polls coming from Indiana because of it's robopoll ban.
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 02:39:05 PM »


Agreed,

I need to see a non-party internal before I make any judgement on this race.

There was a Monmouth poll few weeks back that had Bayh +7. You should note there won't be too many polls coming from Indiana because of it's robopoll ban.

Bayh in that range makes more sense. I give him 10-11 at most.

Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2016, 05:44:29 PM »

I think Bayh is leading Young by a low double-digit margin at the moment.
Logged
Shameless Lefty Hack
Chickenhawk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,178


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 18, 2017, 09:44:40 PM »

It was an incredibly rough night in Indiana.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 13 queries.