New Hampshire 1988-1992 (user search)
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Author Topic: New Hampshire 1988-1992  (Read 1734 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 21, 2016, 10:02:25 PM »

Amazing how big the swing was.  In 1988, HW Bush won New Hampshire by a whopping 26 points over Dukakis; his second best state after Utah.  Just 4 years later, Bill Clinton won the state by 1.2%. Yes, I'm aware of the Perot effect, but that alone doesn't explain such a big swing. And demographically, I imagine the state didn't change too much in 4 years.
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Arbitrage1980
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Posts: 769
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2016, 12:57:09 PM »

Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine all used to be reliably Republican, but that very quickly changed in the 90s.
ME-02 is returning to swing district status.... and that's it! I'd say the women in the state got REALLY angry after the 2002 and 2004 Senate elections, when two Democratic women lost to two Republican men. Then it really started to change.

I'm not yet buying ME-02 trending Republican. It didn't show any kind of trend like that in recent elections. I guess we'll know more after this election. I think that part of the 1992 re-alignment was states with a lot of progressives (WA, OR, VT, NH, and ME) moving into the Democratic column. The flip side was states that are more socially conservative (AR, TN, KY, WV, and eventually MO) moved solidly into the Republican column starting in 2000.

Obama's coalition is basically the Clinton coalition minus appalachian states (probably due to racism).  Knott County in KY voted for Democrats in EVERY single election from 1852 until 2008, when it swung decisively to McCain. 
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Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 769
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 07:41:09 PM »

Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine all used to be reliably Republican, but that very quickly changed in the 90s.
ME-02 is returning to swing district status.... and that's it! I'd say the women in the state got REALLY angry after the 2002 and 2004 Senate elections, when two Democratic women lost to two Republican men. Then it really started to change.

I'm not yet buying ME-02 trending Republican. It didn't show any kind of trend like that in recent elections. I guess we'll know more after this election. I think that part of the 1992 re-alignment was states with a lot of progressives (WA, OR, VT, NH, and ME) moving into the Democratic column. The flip side was states that are more socially conservative (AR, TN, KY, WV, and eventually MO) moved solidly into the Republican column starting in 2000.

Obama's coalition is basically the Clinton coalition minus appalachian states (probably due to racism).  Knott County in KY voted for Democrats in EVERY single election from 1852 until 2008, when it swung decisively to McCain. 
Yeah but Gore and Kerry didn't win the Appalachin States though and Hillary isn't gonna win them either.

True; Gore and Kerry did lose those states.  I should've been more specific: the appalachian states were pretty much the only region where Obama did worse in 2008 than Gore/Kerry.  This is odd given that it was a very anti-GOP year. 
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